| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Chapman Petersen '26 | 64 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Leo Boucher '22 | 72 |
| 3 |  |
University of Miami | Richard Mccann '23 | 73 |
| 4 |  |
Brown University | Connor Nelson '24 | 83 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Nicholas Reeser '25 | 109 |
| 6 |  |
Tulane University | Thad Lettsome '24 | 122 |
| 7 |  |
Yale University | Nicholas Davies '24 | 130 |
| 8 |  |
Roger Williams University | Mathieu Dale '25 | 131 |
| 9 |  |
Georgetown University | Benjamin Smith '26 | 137 |
| 10 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 137 |
| 11 |  |
Hampton University | Valerio Palamara '24 | 143 |
| 12 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Gavin Mcjones '23 | 146 |
| 13 |  |
College of Charleston | Benjamin Dufour '26 | 148 |
| 14 | |
Brown University | Guthrie Braun '26 | 155 |
| 15 | |
Stanford University | Jack Baldwin '26 | 156 |
| 16 | |
Brown University | Leyton Borcherding '25 | 169 |
| 17 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Charlie Anderson '25 | 185 |
| 18 |  |
University of Michigan | Billy Vogel '25 | 237 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Stanford University | Chapman Petersen '26 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 64 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Leo Boucher '22 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 72 |
|
University of Miami | Richard Mccann '23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 73 |
|
Brown University | Connor Nelson '24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 83 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Nicholas Reeser '25 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 109 |
|
Tulane University | Thad Lettsome '24 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 13 | DNF | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 122 |
|
Yale University | Nicholas Davies '24 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 130 |
|
Roger Williams University | Mathieu Dale '25 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 1 | 131 |
|
Georgetown University | Benjamin Smith '26 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 137 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 137 |
|
Hampton University | Valerio Palamara '24 | 11 | 12 | 7 | RAF | 6 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 143 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Gavin Mcjones '23 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 146 |
|
College of Charleston | Benjamin Dufour '26 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 148 |
|
Brown University | Guthrie Braun '26 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 155 |
|
Stanford University | Jack Baldwin '26 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 156 |
|
Brown University | Leyton Borcherding '25 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 169 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Charlie Anderson '25 | 18 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 17 | OCS | 2 | 185 |
|
University of Michigan | Billy Vogel '25 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 237 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapman Petersen '26 | Stanford University Cardinal 1 | 14/14 | 4.29 | 5.19 | +0.90 | 98th → 99th | 3.5 | 7% | 4.6 / 7.4 |
| 2 | Leo Boucher '22 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 14/14 | 4.81 | 4.74 | −0.06 | 99th → 99th | 0.0 | 35% | 5.1 / 6.0 |
| 3 | Richard Mccann '23 | University of Miami | 14/14 | 3.83 | 4.78 | +0.95 | 94th → 99th | 3.9 | 4% | 5.2 / 8.6 |
| 4 | Connor Nelson '24 | Brown University Bears 3 | 14/14 | 3.82 | 4.61 | +0.79 | 94th → 99th | 2.9 | 9% | 5.9 / 8.7 |
| 5 | Nicholas Reeser '25 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 14/14 | 3.85 | 3.88 | +0.03 | 94th → 94th | 0.0 | 38% | 7.8 / 8.5 |
| 6 | Thad Lettsome '24 | Tulane University | 14/14 | 3.63 | 4.04 | +0.41 | 92nd → 95th | 0.8 | 42% | 8.7 / 9.2 |
| 7 | Nicholas Davies '24 | Yale University | 14/14 | 3.32 | 3.64 | +0.32 | 88th → 93rd | 0.5 | 37% | 9.3 / 10.0 |
| 8 | Mathieu Dale '25 | Roger Williams University | 14/14 | 3.34 | 3.58 | +0.23 | 89th → 92nd | 0.3 | 40% | 9.4 / 9.9 |
| 9 | Benjamin Smith '26 | Georgetown University | 14/14 | 3.06 | 3.41 | +0.35 | 83rd → 89th | 0.6 | 32% | 9.8 / 10.8 |
| 9 | Nicholas Sessions '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 14/14 | 3.84 | 3.53 | −0.32 | 94th → 92nd | 0.6 | 74% | 9.8 / 8.6 |
| 11 | Valerio Palamara '24 | Hampton University | 14/14 | 3.56 | 3.62 | +0.06 | 92nd → 92nd | 0.0 | 65% | 10.2 / 9.5 |
| 12 | Gavin Mcjones '23 | U. S. Naval Academy | 14/14 | 3.79 | 3.50 | −0.29 | 94th → 90th | 0.5 | 80% | 10.4 / 8.7 |
| 13 | Benjamin Dufour '26 | College of Charleston | 14/14 | 3.57 | 2.86 | −0.71 | 92nd → 78th | 2.5 | 73% | 10.6 / 9.4 |
| 14 | Guthrie Braun '26 | Brown University Bears 2 | 14/14 | 3.62 | 2.97 | −0.65 | 92nd → 81st | 2.3 | 81% | 11.1 / 9.2 |
| 15 | Jack Baldwin '26 | Stanford University Cardinal 2 | 14/14 | 3.05 | 3.11 | +0.06 | 83rd → 84th | 0.0 | 56% | 11.1 / 10.8 |
| 16 | Leyton Borcherding '25 | Brown University Bears 1 | 14/14 | 3.13 | 2.98 | −0.15 | 84th → 81st | 0.1 | 76% | 12.1 / 10.5 |
| 17 | Charlie Anderson '25 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 14/14 | 2.76 | 2.30 | −0.46 | 74th → 60th | 1.0 | 78% | 13.2 / 11.6 |
| 18 | Billy Vogel '25 | University of Michigan | 14/14 | 1.88 | 1.03 | −0.85 | 47th → 24th | 2.3 | 99% | 16.9 / 13.7 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
