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UCSD Frosh/Soph

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 13 17 30
2 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 31 29 60
3 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 56 57 113
4 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 100 55 155
5 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 79 77 156
6 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 58 106 164
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 132 34 166
8 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 57 135 192
9 Anteaters 2 Anteaters 2 Anteaters 2 128 67 195
10 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 132 84 216
11 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 103 125 228
12 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 73 168 241
13 Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins 111 134 245
14 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 157 99 256
15 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 118 150 268
16 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 169 119 288
17 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 104 187 291
18 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 97 197 294
19 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 208 90 298
20 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 78 230 308
21 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 152 175 327
22 Anteaters 1 Anteaters 1 Anteaters 1 186 142 328
23 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 178 187 365
24 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 223 161 384
25 Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3 219 194 413
26 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 4 228 187 415
27 Gauchos Gauchos Gauchos 258 261 519
28 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 259 261 520
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 13 Kyle Farmer '26
Logan Chapman '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 6 3 2 2 5 2 3 4 4 31 Jack Kisling '25 [1-9]
Kyle Hirth '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24 [3-4, 8-9]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 3 6 5 3 7 6 11 6 9 56 Jack Zemke '25
Artie Nazarov '23
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 2 6 12 6 10 5 2 10 57 Jackson Mckinley '26
Breeze Pickford '26
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 1 4 4 4 4 9 9 15 8 58 Mitchell Powers '25
Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 8 8 8 8 9 7 10 8 7 73 Sadie Hoberman '25 [1-9]
Emily Broach '25 [1-5]
Jack Arroues '23 [6-9]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 7 5 3 6 19 11 14 7 6 78 Emma Kalway '26
Stella Potter '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 14 16 7 7 3 3 4 12 13 79 Kamille Romero '24 [1-9]
Maxine Kim '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Ezri Jarman '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 5 19 10 11 16 17 7 9 3 97 Samson Grunwald '23
Adam Vanleeuwen '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 9 9 14 15 2 14 8 10 19 100 Viola Phillips Frank '26 [1-9]
Kyla Burmester '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Peder Skotte '23 [3-4, 8-9]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 12 13 13 10 8 5 15 16 11 103 Sienna Stromberg '25 [1-9]
Lara Zoghbi '23 [1-2, 5, 8-9]
Emily Yong '25 [3-4, 6-7]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 10 10 9 14 17 8 6 18 12 104 Scarlett Dawson '26 [1-9]
Sara Camarero '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Bella O’Neill '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins 21 14 11 5 14 4 20 17 5 111
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 18 12 15 16 10 12 13 5 17 118 Frank Hobson '26
John Flanagan '25
Anteaters 2 Anteaters 2 Anteaters 2 16 23 20 19 12 13 23 1 1 128
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 11 11 17 21 13 16 16 11 16 132 Connor Fagan '26 [1-9]
Hayden Shaffer '24 [1-4, 8-9]
Cole Ringdahl '26 [5-7]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 15 7 12 13 20 18 2 24 21 132 Aivan Durfee '25 [1-9]
Fiona Wagner '25 [1-2, 5, 8-9]
Madalyn Gordon '25 [3-4, 6-7]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 17 18 16 9 18 19 12 19 24 152 Blake Grossman '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Riley Benjaminson '26 [3-4, 8-9]
Skylar Adelman '25 [5]
Paige Karsten '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Skylar Adelman '25 [3-4, 8-9]
Peyton Enderle '26 [5]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 20 15 19 20 11 21 19 14 18 157 Joseph Weil '24
Carsten Hoeke '24
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 13 22 18 18 21 24 17 22 14 169 Christopher Milan '25
Reagen Day '24
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 22 20 21 23 22 20 22 13 15 178 Maximus Suh '26 [1-9]
Ainsley Hobart '24 [1-4, 8-9]
Cate Williams '25 [5-7]
Anteaters 1 Anteaters 1 Anteaters 1 24 17 24 17 24 15 21 21 23 186
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 19 24 23 24 DNS 22 24 23 20 208 Holden Clarke '24 [1-5]
William Bailly '26 [6-9]
Patrick Gardiner '26 [1-5]
Zacarias Valencia '24 [6-9]
Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3 23 21 22 22 15 DNF DNS DNS DNS 219
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 25 25 25 25 23 25 25 25 25 223 Sophia Pless '25
Grace Richie '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 23 18 20 22 228 Cassidy Murray '24
Nina Folz '23
Gauchos Gauchos Gauchos DNS 26 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 258
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 DNS 27 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 259 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 4 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 17 Conner Skewes '25
Kawika Tumilowicz '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 3 8 4 4 3 2 1 1 3 29 Ryan Milne '26
Daniel Gates '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 4 3 7 3 8 3 2 3 1 34 Sophia Jacobs '23
Iesha Carter '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 5 5 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 55 Fiona Wu '25 [1-9]
Tammy Le '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Aaron Shalf '23 [3-5, 8-9]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 2 7 3 6 4 4 4 6 21 57 Summer Drake '26
Devon Baker-Berry '26
Anteaters 2 Anteaters 2 Anteaters 2 7 2 1 2 2 13 18 15 7 67
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 8 11 5 14 7 9 7 12 4 77 Melody Quevedo '23 [1-9]
Blossom Jee '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Connor Lewis '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 15 12 10 11 13 6 5 4 8 84 Dante Massaro '26
Neil Karkhanis '26
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 6 10 6 9 10 7 10 9 23 90 Gavin Hirz '26
Natalie Tricarico '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 14 9 11 5 5 19 8 16 12 99 Ryan Mccrystal '25
Aron Mcconnell '23
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 12 15 12 8 11 10 11 5 22 106 Sean Kenealy '25
Gillian Cate '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 13 17 15 17 14 11 12 11 9 119 John Gallagher '24 [1-9]
Katinka Lennemann '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Sofia Mirabal '25 [3-5, 8-9]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 10 14 20 18 9 15 15 10 14 125 Alexis Di Stefano '25 [1-9]
Andrew Harper '26 [1-2, 5, 8-9]
Griffin Vernon '26 [3-4, 6-7]
Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins 9 13 13 10 16 14 19 22 18 134
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 18 1 19 23 17 16 13 18 10 135 Liam Hoole '25
Ariana Gabier '24
Anteaters 1 Anteaters 1 Anteaters 1 16 22 9 19 15 17 14 14 16 142
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 11 6 DNF 12 22 8 9 24 DNF 150 Conrad Kistler '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Andrew Bistras '26 [3-5, 8-9]
Harry Sandstrom '23 [1-2, 6-7]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 23 21 22 15 12 20 16 17 15 161 Cassie Halaszynski '25
Rylee Hickey '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 19 19 21 21 20 21 23 13 11 168 Hayden Shaw '25 [1-9]
Zacarias Valencia '24 [1-5]
Patrick Gardiner '26 [6-9]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 21 20 18 16 19 23 20 21 17 175 Adeline Spencer '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Ryan Giorgianni '26 [3-5, 8-9]
Olivia Feaster '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Cody Van Ness '26 [3-5, 8-9]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 20 23 17 20 24 18 21 20 24 187 Orion Spatafora '25
Crawford Patten '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 22 18 16 24 21 22 22 23 19 187 Bryson Dort '23 [1-9]
Benjamin Lee '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Rony Zoghbi '23 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 12 17 8 5 187 No Show
No Show
Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3 17 16 14 13 18 DNS DNS DNS DNS 194
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 24 24 23 22 23 24 25 19 13 197 Fadia Nitrosso '24 [1-2, 6-7]
Siobhan Dornfried '25 [3-5, 8-9]
Siobhan Dornfried '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Fadia Nitrosso '24 [3-5, 8-9]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 DNF DSQ 24 25 25 DNF 24 25 20 230 Natasha Chiotis '24
Sabina Jozwik '26
Gauchos Gauchos Gauchos DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 261
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 261 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 111111139139139139
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 22222240404040
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 333333140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1858585858585858585
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2868686868686868686
California Poly Maritime AcademyCalifornia Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers4040404040102102102102
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 12222222222318318318318
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 223232323234444
DolphinsDolphins Dolphins56565656569999
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs71717171713333
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans132132132132132137137137137
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 19090909090148148148148
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 2919191919148484848
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 3929292929292929292
Anteaters 1Anteaters 1 Anteaters 110310310310310325252525
Anteaters 2Anteaters 2 Anteaters 210410410410410426262626
Anteaters 3Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3105105105105105250250250250
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 110610610610610627272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 210710710710710728282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 31081081081081082222
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 111611611611611629292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 211711711711711730303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3118118118118118729729729729
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 4119119119119119301301301301
GauchosGauchos Gauchos123123123123123123123123123
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 112512512512512533333333
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2126126126126126133133133133
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3127127127127127129129129129

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 111111139139139139
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 22222240404040
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 333333140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1858585858585858585
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2868686868686868686
California Poly Maritime AcademyCalifornia Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers4040404040102102102102
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 12222222222318318318318
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 223232323234444
DolphinsDolphins Dolphins56565656569999
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs71717171713333
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans132132132132132137137137137
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 19090909090148148148148
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 2919191919148484848
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 3929292929292929292
Anteaters 1Anteaters 1 Anteaters 110310310310310325252525
Anteaters 2Anteaters 2 Anteaters 210410410410410426262626
Anteaters 3Anteaters 3 Anteaters 3105105105105105250250250250
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 110610610610610627272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 210710710710710728282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 31081081081081082222
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 111611611611611629292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 211711711711711730303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3118118118118118729729729729
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 4119119119119119301301301301
GauchosGauchos Gauchos123123123123123123123123123
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 112512512512512533333333
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2126126126126126133133133133
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3127127127127127129129129129
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Holden Clarke '24 [1-5]
William Bailly '26 [6-9]		 Patrick Gardiner '26 [1-5]
Zacarias Valencia '24 [6-9]
Sun Devils 1 Gavin Hirz '26 Natalie Tricarico '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Mitchell Powers '25 Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Sun Devils 2 Sean Kenealy '25 Gillian Cate '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sadie Hoberman '25 [1-9] Emily Broach '25 [1-5]
Jack Arroues '23 [6-9]
Sun Devils 3 Hayden Shaw '25 [1-9] Zacarias Valencia '24 [1-5]
Patrick Gardiner '26 [6-9]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Sienna Stromberg '25 [1-9] Lara Zoghbi '23 [1-2, 5, 8-9]
Emily Yong '25 [3-4, 6-7]
Mustangs 1 Alexis Di Stefano '25 [1-9] Andrew Harper '26 [1-2, 5, 8-9]
Griffin Vernon '26 [3-4, 6-7]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Jack Kisling '25 [1-9] Kyle Hirth '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24 [3-4, 8-9]
Mustangs 2 Ryan Milne '26 Daniel Gates '26
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Kyle Farmer '26 Logan Chapman '26
Keelhaulers Conner Skewes '25 Kawika Tumilowicz '25
San Diego State University San Diego State University Blake Grossman '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Riley Benjaminson '26 [3-4, 8-9]
Skylar Adelman '25 [5]		 Paige Karsten '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Skylar Adelman '25 [3-4, 8-9]
Peyton Enderle '26 [5]
Aztecs Adeline Spencer '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Ryan Giorgianni '26 [3-5, 8-9]		 Olivia Feaster '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Cody Van Ness '26 [3-5, 8-9]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Viola Phillips Frank '26 [1-9] Kyla Burmester '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Peder Skotte '23 [3-4, 8-9]
Bears 1 Fiona Wu '25 [1-9] Tammy Le '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Aaron Shalf '23 [3-5, 8-9]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Aivan Durfee '25 [1-9] Fiona Wagner '25 [1-2, 5, 8-9]
Madalyn Gordon '25 [3-4, 6-7]
Bears 2 Sophia Jacobs '23 Iesha Carter '23
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Scarlett Dawson '26 [1-9] Sara Camarero '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Bella O’Neill '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Aggies 1 Bryson Dort '23 [1-9] Benjamin Lee '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Rony Zoghbi '23 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Kamille Romero '24 [1-9] Maxine Kim '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Ezri Jarman '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Aggies 2 Melody Quevedo '23 [1-9] Blossom Jee '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Connor Lewis '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis No Show No Show
Aggies 3 No Show No Show
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Christopher Milan '25 Reagen Day '24
Bruins 1 John Gallagher '24 [1-9] Katinka Lennemann '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Sofia Mirabal '25 [3-5, 8-9]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Frank Hobson '26 John Flanagan '25
Bruins 2 Conrad Kistler '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Andrew Bistras '26 [3-5, 8-9]		 Harry Sandstrom '23 [1-2, 6-7]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Samson Grunwald '23 Adam Vanleeuwen '26
Bruins 3 Fadia Nitrosso '24 [1-2, 6-7]
Siobhan Dornfried '25 [3-5, 8-9]		 Siobhan Dornfried '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Fadia Nitrosso '24 [3-5, 8-9]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Emma Kalway '26 Stella Potter '26
Tritons 1 Natasha Chiotis '24 Sabina Jozwik '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Sophia Pless '25 Grace Richie '24
Tritons 2 Cassie Halaszynski '25 Rylee Hickey '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Joseph Weil '24 Carsten Hoeke '24
Tritons 3 Ryan Mccrystal '25 Aron Mcconnell '23
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Cassidy Murray '24 Nina Folz '23
Tritons 4 No Show No Show
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Jack Zemke '25 Artie Nazarov '23
Banana Slugs 1 Summer Drake '26 Devon Baker-Berry '26
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Connor Fagan '26 [1-9] Hayden Shaffer '24 [1-4, 8-9]
Cole Ringdahl '26 [5-7]
Banana Slugs 2 Dante Massaro '26 Neil Karkhanis '26
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Maximus Suh '26 [1-9] Ainsley Hobart '24 [1-4, 8-9]
Cate Williams '25 [5-7]
Banana Slugs 3 Orion Spatafora '25 Crawford Patten '26
University of Southern California University of Southern California Jackson Mckinley '26 Breeze Pickford '26
Trojans Liam Hoole '25 Ariana Gabier '24

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1009.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From SW (217°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine2.3 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1009.6 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.44 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →