Janet Lutz Trophy

Women's
HostTulane
Date11/11/2023
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Tulane University	Ava Anderson '27	74
2	Brown University	Katharine Doble '26	77
3	Jacksonville University	Agija Elerte '26	79
4	Cornell University	Lucija Ruzevic '24	87
5	Dartmouth College	Sarah Young '25	90
6	University of Rhode Island	Okyanus Arıkan '26	96
7	University of Washington	Hailey Thompson '27	118
8	Brown University	Kaitlyn Hamilton '26	119
9	Georgetown University	Piper Holthus '25	132
10	Brown University	Sidney Moyer '27	135
11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Madison Bashaw '24	145
12	Cornell University	Lauren Ehnot '24	154
13	Jacksonville University	Emily Allen '25	157
14	Old Dominion University	Gianna Dewey '27	168
15	Tulane University	Oakley Cunningham '27	170
16	University of Washington	Sammy Farkas '27	181
17	U. S. Naval Academy	Kate Zurinskas '27	185
18	University of Wisconsin	Claire Considine '23	228

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Tulane University	Ava Anderson '27	1	1	7	11	8	8	12	2	3	6	3	6	5	1	74
Brown University	Katharine Doble '26	8	2	9	7	7	9	7	11	4	2	2	4	2	3	77
Jacksonville University	Agija Elerte '26	16	8	1	5	2	3	3	12	5	3	8	3	6	4	79
Cornell University	Lucija Ruzevic '24	7	13	14	12	11	6	2	1	2	1	5	1	4	8	87
Dartmouth College	Sarah Young '25	2	10	3	10	9	1	4	5	8	5	4	14	10	5	90
University of Rhode Island	Okyanus Arıkan '26	12	9	13	1	1	14	1	3	6	11	1	2	15	7	96
University of Washington	Hailey Thompson '27	3	14	16	9	4	4	6	7	1	7	16	11	7	13	118
Brown University	Kaitlyn Hamilton '26	9	5	12	3	6	10	8	8	13	13	14	8	8	2	119
Georgetown University	Piper Holthus '25	10	3	10	16	16	5	13	9	7	12	9	7	3	12	132
Brown University	Sidney Moyer '27	5	4	4	14	15	7	10	6	10	17	11	16	1	15	135
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Madison Bashaw '24	4	6	11	17	10	15	15	4	16	4	7	12	13	11	145
Cornell University	Lauren Ehnot '24	15	12	5	4	3	12	5	10	17	14	12	10	18	17	154
Jacksonville University	Emily Allen '25	13	7	6	13	18	16	14	14	9	9	15	5	12	6	157
Old Dominion University	Gianna Dewey '27	11	18	2	6	12	17	17	15	11	8	13	13	16	9	168
Tulane University	Oakley Cunningham '27	14	16	8	8	14	2	11	13	15	18	10	18	9	14	170
University of Washington	Sammy Farkas '27	17	15	15	2	5	13	9	16	12	15	18	15	11	18	181
U. S. Naval Academy	Kate Zurinskas '27	6	11	17	18	13	18	18	18	14	10	6	9	17	10	185
University of Wisconsin	Claire Considine '23	OCS	17	18	15	17	11	16	17	18	16	17	17	14	16	228

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Ava Anderson '27	Tulane University Green Wave 1	14/14	3.15	4.01	+0.85	84th → 95th	3.3	8%	5.3 / 8.1
2	Katharine Doble '26	Brown University Bears 1	14/14	3.49	3.96	+0.47	90th → 95th	1.1	23%	5.5 / 7.1
3	Agija Elerte '26	Jacksonville University Fins 2	14/14	2.71	3.72	+1.01	72nd → 93rd	4.3	4%	5.6 / 9.2
4	Lucija Ruzevic '24	Cornell University Big Red 2	14/14	3.05	3.58	+0.53	83rd → 92nd	1.3	16%	6.2 / 8.4
5	Sarah Young '25	Dartmouth College	14/14	3.22	3.59	+0.38	85th → 92nd	0.7	26%	6.4 / 7.9
6	Okyanus Arıkan '26	University of Rhode Island	14/14	3.41	3.24	−0.18	89th → 85th	0.2	42%	6.9 / 7.4
7	Hailey Thompson '27	University of Washington Huskies 2	14/14	2.46	2.90	+0.44	62nd → 78th	0.9	29%	8.4 / 9.9
8	Kaitlyn Hamilton '26	Brown University Bears 2	14/14	2.99	3.08	+0.09	81st → 83rd	0.0	52%	8.5 / 8.5
9	Piper Holthus '25	Georgetown University	14/14	2.88	2.75	−0.13	78th → 73rd	0.1	64%	9.4 / 8.8
10	Sidney Moyer '27	Brown University Bears 3	14/14	2.54	2.58	+0.04	66th → 67th	0.0	49%	9.6 / 9.8
11	Madison Bashaw '24	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	2.38	2.47	+0.09	61st → 62nd	0.0	52%	10.4 / 10.3
12	Lauren Ehnot '24	Cornell University Big Red 1	14/14	2.67	2.07	−0.60	71st → 54th	2.0	79%	11.0 / 9.4
13	Emily Allen '25	Jacksonville University Fins 1	14/14	2.44	2.25	−0.19	62nd → 59th	0.2	72%	11.2 / 10.1
14	Gianna Dewey '27	Old Dominion University	14/14	2.18	1.91	−0.27	57th → 48th	0.4	72%	12.0 / 10.8
15	Oakley Cunningham '27	Tulane University Green Wave 2	14/14	2.59	1.89	−0.70	68th → 48th	2.8	82%	12.1 / 9.6
16	Sammy Farkas '27	University of Washington Huskies 1	14/14	1.95	1.62	−0.33	50th → 40th	0.5	77%	12.9 / 11.3
17	Kate Zurinskas '27	U. S. Naval Academy	14/14	1.37	1.35	−0.02	33rd → 32nd	0.0	56%	13.2 / 12.9
18	Claire Considine '23	University of Wisconsin	14/14	1.73	1.08	−0.65	43rd → 25th	2.1	98%	16.3 / 11.8

Conditions — 11/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 88% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.0 kn

avg · max 7.2 kn

Gusts to 14.4 kn

From NE (41°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1019.9 hPa Rain0.03 in

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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