David Lee Arnoff Trophy

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 109
2 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 125
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 130
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 174
5 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 176
6 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 222
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 3 4 3 5 1 6 1 10 3 1 1 2 40 James Kopack '28
Lucy Lack '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons A 4 3 4 1 11 5 5 1 6 5 5 3 53 Brook Wood '25
Reilly Roedel '27
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts A 5 1 7 6 6 2 3 5 2 4 10 5 56 Cooper Smith '27 [1-12]
Marguerite Torres Stickney '27 [1-4, 9-12]
Dee Mccormick '28 [5-8]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red B 2 8 2 4 7 3 8 4 10 2 2 10 62 Marcus Greco '28
Theodore Taylor '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red A 1 11 8 2 9 4 4 2 1 9 8 9 68 Boris Bialer '26
Wynne Williams '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 7 2 1 3 2 7 7 3 11 6 9 11 69 Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26
Stella Kim '27
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts B 9 7 6 7 4 10 6 6 4 3 6 1 69 Gavin Sanborn '25 [1-4, 9-12]
Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez '26 [5-8]
Ryan Thompson '26 [1-4, 9-12]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers A 8 5 5 10 3 1 2 12 9 10 3 6 74 Charlie Herrick '26
Cansin Ozsoy '26
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers A 6 6 12 8 8 8 9 8 7 11 4 4 91 Ossian Kamal '26
Skylor Wong '26
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers B 10 9 9 11 5 9 10 7 5 8 11 8 102 William Styslinger '28 [1-4, 9-12]
Penelope Whiteside '28 [5-8]
Katherine Ahlquist '28 [1-4, 9-12]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons B 12 10 10 9 12 11 12 11 8 7 7 12 121 Bennett O'Keefe '27
Maya Mahoney '27
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers B 11 12 11 12 10 12 11 9 12 12 12 7 131 Berkley Yiu '25 [1-4, 9-12]
Advik Eswaran '27 [5-8]
William Surringa '26 [1-4, 9-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red111122223333
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Herons333344445555
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2222111112121212
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers444433332222
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts555566667777
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers666655554444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red777788889999
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Herons99991010101011111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen888877776666
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers1010101099998888
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts11111111121212121111
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers121212121111111110101010

Conditions — 10/12/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NW (323°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1017.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn · E 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.41 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →