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Courageous Ross

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 23 23
2 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 1 30 30
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 39 39
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 5 42 42
5 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 47 47
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 54 54
7 Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 58 58
8 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 2 65 65
9 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 65 65
10 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 66 66
11 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 69 69
12 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 69 69
13 Williams College Williams College Ephs 2 71 71
14 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 82 82
15 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 91 91
16 Williams College Williams College Ephs 1 94 94
17 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 4 106 106
18 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 128 128
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 1 1 7 1 4 1 8 23
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 1 7 2 2 2 9 5 3 30
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 3 12 4 5 11 1 39
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 5 5 8 3 11 3 10 2 42
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 8 13 8 5 1 2 10 47
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 4 4 5 8 17 3 13 54
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 6 5 13 9 6 15 4 58
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 2 2 15 4 16 11 6 11 65
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 11 12 1 15 8 12 6 65
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 10 7 16 13 7 8 5 66
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 14 9 11 3 16 4 12 69
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 17 10 10 14 2 9 7 69
Williams College Williams College Ephs 2 9 6 15 6 14 7 14 71
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 16 17 6 7 10 17 9 82
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 12 11 14 10 15 13 16 91
Williams College Williams College Ephs 1 13 14 9 17 12 14 15 94
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 4 15 16 17 12 13 16 17 106
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths DNS DNS 18 18 18 18 18 128
School Team Sailors
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths SkipperRufus Fender-Reid '27 [3-7]
CrewFrancisco Cano '28 [3-7]
CrewNathanael Heath '27 [3-7]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 SkipperHenry Gesing '29
CrewEthan Stoehr '26
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 SkipperBrandon O’Sullivan '28
CrewAadi Sethi '29
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 SkipperHarrison Stevens '26
CrewIssa Cisse '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 SkipperAli McIntyre '27
CrewMara Oancea '27
CrewPatience Gifford '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 SkipperQuinn Brighton '27
CrewTucker Gibbs '27
ReserveCorinne Harrison '27
ReserveTheo Meyer '28
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 SkipperCharles Case '26
CrewCorinne Harrison '27
CrewTheo Meyer '28
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 1 SkipperJack Nugent '29
CrewMikhail Lavrenov '26
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 2 SkipperEben Dooling '29
CrewNicholas Belev '26
CrewRussell Chia '27
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix SkipperBenjamin Ely '28
CrewSkylar Rainier '28
CrewLogan Teeple '28
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 SkipperSean Lund '26
CrewTrixie Williams '26
CrewNathan Kluskiewicz '28
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 SkipperLucas Wiatrowski '27
Crewvarda kotlyarsky '28
CrewGavin Tucker '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 SkipperCameron McLean '26
CrewScott Senatore '26
CrewShannon O'Connor '29
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 4 SkipperDevon Valenta '26
CrewRyan Rabbitt '29
CrewJacob Mitchell '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 5 SkipperJack Tresh '28
CrewCameron Crooks '29
CrewClaire Komar '27
Williams College Williams College Ephs 1 SkipperTess Halpern '28
CrewMaia Wang '26
CrewAmelie Soslow '29
ReserveLauren Mukavitz '27
Reserverebecca power '27
ReserveHannah Smith '29
Williams College Williams College Ephs 2 Skipperrebecca power '27
CrewHannah Smith '29
CrewLauren Mukavitz '27
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech SkipperOwen Peterson '28
CrewHenry Donahue '27
CrewGabe Synnott '28

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
  • — in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  18 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Charles Case '26Brown University Bears 37/71.462.22+0.7589th → 99th1.813%3.3 / 6.0
2Jack Nugent '29McGill University Redbirds 17/70.641.84+1.2056th → 97th4.46%4.3 / 8.4
3Quinn Brighton '27Brown University Bears 27/71.391.25−0.1588th → 83rd0.146%5.6 / 6.1
4Jack Tresh '28University of New Hampshire Wildcats 57/7-0.341.28+1.625th → 86th7.62%6.0 / 11.6
5Sean Lund '26University of New Hampshire Wildcats 17/70.491.06+0.5749th → 76th1.224%6.7 / 8.9
6Harrison Stevens '26Boston University Terriers 37/70.820.58−0.2467th → 54th0.250%7.7 / 7.9
7Benjamin Ely '28Olin College of Engineering7/70.500.68+0.1849th → 57th0.145%8.3 / 8.8
8Cameron McLean '26University of New Hampshire Wildcats 37/70.080.49+0.4020th → 49th0.639%9.3 / 10.2
8Eben Dooling '29McGill University Redbirds 27/70.660.28−0.3857th → 38th0.764%9.3 / 8.4
10Brandon O’Sullivan '28Boston University Terriers 27/70.200.39+0.1933rd → 42nd0.145%9.4 / 9.9
11Ali McIntyre '27Brown University Bears 17/71.00u0.29−0.7275th → 38th2.783%9.9 / 7.3
11Lucas Wiatrowski '27University of New Hampshire Wildcats 27/70.080.21+0.1320th → 33rd0.145%9.9 / 10.3
13rebecca power '27Williams College Ephs 27/7-0.350.39+0.754th → 42nd2.030%10.1 / 11.6
14Henry Gesing '29Boston University Terriers 17/70.73-0.50−1.2361st → 3rd6.990%11.7 / 8.1
15Owen Peterson '28Worcester Polytechnic Institute7/7-0.25-0.07+0.196th → 14th0.172%13.0 / 11.3
16Tess Halpern '28Williams College Ephs 17/7-0.20-0.21−0.009th → 9th0.079%13.4 / 11.1
17Devon Valenta '26University of New Hampshire Wildcats 47/7-0.69-0.58+0.111st → 2nd0.084%15.1 / 12.6
18Rufus Fender-Reid '27Amherst College7/7-0.69——1st → —9.9>99%18.3 / 12.5

Conditions — 09/20/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1025.2 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 9.1 kn
From SSW (206°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1025.2 hPa

What this breeze does at New Hampshire — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at New Hampshire in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled fleet-race days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →