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Mt. Hope Bay Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 33 33
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 36 36
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 55 55
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 59 59
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6 60 60
6 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 74 74
7 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 94 94
8 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 96 96
9 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 101 101
10 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 134 134
11 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 146 146
12 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 149 149
13 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 151 151
14 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 152 152
15 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 172 172
16 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 190 190
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 1 5 1 6 3 3 1 1 1 7 2 2 33 Edward Herman '28
Max Hanson '29
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 4 7 2 6 5 36 Jakub Fuja '27
Jack Gondoly '27
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 8 4 5 4 2 6 3 2 2 4 7 8 55 Dominik Moncur '29
Didier Schouten '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 9 1 4 3 9 4 5 6 5 1 11 1 59 Richard Pokorny '29
Morgan Batchelder '29
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6 5 8 2 DNS 4 2 6 3 3 3 4 3 60 Ludwik Grzelak '28
Panni Missura '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 3 7 11 5 7 10 7 7 4 6 1 6 74 Madeline Murphy '29
Sydney Zylinski '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 6 10 14 7 DNF 5 8 9 6 5 3 4 94 John Fichtenholtz '29
Grace Boudreau '29
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4 3 8 2 DNS 7 4 10 11 16 5 9 96 Hayden Mccready '29 [1-12]
Derek Kirby '29 [1-6]
Brielle Santala '25 [7-12]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 10 9 6 8 8 8 9 5 10 9 12 7 101 Sophia Fuller '29
Demetry Spinola '26
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 11 12 DNF 12 5 9 10 12 13 14 8 11 134 James Meyer '29
Olivia Atkins '28
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 14 11 9 9 DNF 11 11 8 15 15 14 12 146 Tyler Winowiecki '27
Spencer Castle '29
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 7 6 13 11 10 DNS DNS DNS 9 13 16 13 149 Colin Shearley '29
Mallory Dietsch '27
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 12 13 7 10 DNS DNS DNS DNS 8 10 9 14 151 Olivia Blackmer '28
Julia Overmyer '27
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 13 DNF 10 DNS 11 DNS 12 11 12 12 10 10 152 Charlotte Green '29
Stephanie Zajczenko '27
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 15 DNS 12 DNF 6 DNS DNS DNS 16 8 15 15 172 Victoria Sikorjak '27 [1-12]
Oliver Schweiger '29 [1-8]
Nat Altuzar '27 [9-12]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 14 11 13 16 190 Riley Mcknight '29 [1-12]
Gabriella-Marie Diez '28 [1-4]
Shannon Brecher '26 [5-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 11111121213131414151511
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 212121313141415151122
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3131314141515112233
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1112233445566
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2223344556677
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 1334455667788
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2445566778899
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 355667788991010
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 46677889910101111
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 5778899101011111212
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 6161616161616161616161616
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 188991010111112121313
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 29910101111121213131414
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 3101011111212131314141515
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 11414151511223344
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 215151122334455

Conditions — 09/06/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 89%  ·  Pressure 1014.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.7 kn
avg  ·  max 16.2 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From SSW (192°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1014.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 18 kn · N 11 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.24 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →