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Pine Trophy 2025

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 38 38
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 43 43
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 51 51
4 Boston College Boston College Eagles 56 56
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 60 60
6 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 73 73
7 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 89 89
8 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 89 89
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 4 2 3 4 8 38
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 4 4 2 2 43
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 6 7 6 3 5 RDG 1 2 6 1 1 2 3 4 51
Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 6 5 6 1 3 5 5 3 7 5 5 1 1 56
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 7 2 3 2 7 2 6 8 5 3 3 1 6 5 60
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 4 1 7 8 3 5 4 6 7 5 7 6 7 3 73
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 1 5 4 7 6 6 8 RDG 8 8 8 7 8 7 89
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 8 8 8 5 8 7 7 3 4 6 6 8 5 6 89

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  8 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Guthrie Braun '26Brown University14/143.233.27+0.0499th → 99th0.034%2.7 / 3.2
2Carlos de Castro '26Roger Williams University14/142.783.26+0.4899th → 99th1.425%3.1 / 3.9
3Morgan Pinckney '27Yale University14/142.922.75−0.1799th → 99th0.264%4.0 / 3.7
3Peter Busch '26Boston College14/142.712.58−0.1499th → 99th0.154%4.0 / 4.0
5Tyler Nash '26University of Rhode Island14/141.792.48+0.6996th → 99th2.718%4.3 / 5.2
6Tomas Riccio '28U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 114/142.081.93−0.1599th → 98th0.265%5.2 / 4.8
7Wells Connor '29Connecticut College14/141.521.21−0.3191st → 82nd0.576%6.4 / 5.6
8Connor Boudreau '26U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 214/141.58u1.19−0.3891st → 81st0.789%6.6 / 5.6

Conditions — 09/06/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.0 kn
avg  ·  max 12.0 kn
Gusts to 29.2 kn
From SSW (204°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.44 in

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →