CofC Women's Fall

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 35
2 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 87
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 102
4 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 140
5 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 198
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 16 Bella Shakespeare '27
Lucy Elvart '28
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 4 3 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 19 Ashley Alfortish '27
Lucy Zinn '28
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 2 2 3 1 6 3 5 6 3 3 34 Arabella Duer '29
Petra Humphrey '29
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 3 4 6 5 3 5 3 7 6 4 46 Fiona Froelich '28
Cheyenne Dooley '28
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 7 7 5 4 4 4 7 3 5 7 53 Olivia Gilmore '27
Helena Allocco '29
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers A 5 5 4 6 5 7 6 5 7 6 56 Madeleine Harris '29
Lele Sutt '29
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 5 56 Lotty Hugo '30
Kaitlyn Anderson '29
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers B 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 84 Nora Armstrong '30 [1-10]
Sophie Hermeling '30 [1-6]
Grace Gast '28 [7-10]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe A 8 8 9 8 8 9 DNS DNS DNS DNS 94 Maxine Hall '29
Eloise Graf '30
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe B 10 10 10 10 10 10 DNS DNS DNS DNS 104 Natalie Chenard '27 [1-10]
Manika Yamin '27 [1, 6-10]
Isabella Hesse '29 [2-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars2181110109988
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers111818334455
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins3344556677
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs44331818111010
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe5566778899

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars778899101011
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers665544331818
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins8877665544
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs99101011181833
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe101099887766

Conditions — 10/10/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From ENE (78°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine0.8 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1016.5 hPa Rain1.81 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: no wind record for this regatta; the venue average is used
In this breeze at Charleston: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.51 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →