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GW Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 10–2
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 9–3
3 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 7–5
4 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3–9
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.463 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		110.21
school +0.20		Gray Benson / Kimmie Leonard 3.29
Gavin Mcjones / Isabella Fadullon 2.91
Jc Hermus / Fiona Lobon 3.76		85%10–2 (83%)−0.2
2University of Pennsylvania
Quakers		38.55Samuel Gavula / Hannah Bast 2.51
Jordan Bruce / Joshua Zeelander
Christopher Sharpless / Shaanti Choi-Bose 2.93		47%9–3 (75%)+3.4
3St. Mary's College of Maryland
Seahawks		29.34
school +0.16		Leo Boucher / Ellie Sekowski 3.40
Charlie Anderson / Madison Bashaw
Owen Hennessey / Sam Muir		66%7–5 (58%)−0.9
4SUNY Maritime College
Privateers		48.10
school −0.15		Benton Amthor / Eva Leggett 3.45
John Vail / Kaitlin Brzostek 2.17
Spencer Barnes / Camille Nastasi 2.57		36%3–9 (25%)−1.3
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy
Mariners		57.24
school −0.11		Lucas Sawin / Eddy Harris
John Mckenna / Maeve Jackson 2.36
William Weinbecker / Josh Beavis		17%1–11 (8%)−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of Pennsylvania8.5510.139–35.6+1.583.73%
1U. S. Naval Academy10.2110.1110–210.2−0.100.073%
3St. Mary's College of Maryland9.348.917–57.9−0.430.384%
4SUNY Maritime College8.107.463–94.3−0.640.689%
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy7.246.401–112.0−0.840.690%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Samuel GavulaUniversity of Pennsylvania2.514.099–35.6+1.583.73%
Jc HermusU. S. Naval Academy3.763.6510–210.2−0.100.073%
Charlie AndersonSt. Mary's College of Maryland2.351.937–57.9−0.430.384%
John MckennaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.361.521–112.0−0.840.690%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy96%
12St. Mary's College of MarylandSUNY Maritime College75%
13University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy81%
14U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College89%
15U. S. Merchant Marine AcademySUNY Maritime College28%upset
16University of PennsylvaniaSt. Mary's College of Maryland33%upset
17U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania84%
18St. Mary's College of MarylandU. S. Merchant Marine Academy89%
19University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College61%
110U. S. Naval AcademySt. Mary's College of Maryland71%
211SUNY Maritime CollegeU. S. Merchant Marine Academy71%
212University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Naval Academy16%upset
213St. Mary's College of MarylandU. S. Merchant Marine Academy89%
214U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College89%
215St. Mary's College of MarylandUniversity of Pennsylvania69%
216U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy95%
217St. Mary's College of MarylandSUNY Maritime College78%
218University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy78%
219U. S. Naval AcademySt. Mary's College of Maryland70%
220SUNY Maritime CollegeUniversity of Pennsylvania39%upset
321University of PennsylvaniaSt. Mary's College of Maryland30%upset
322U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College89%
323St. Mary's College of MarylandU. S. Merchant Marine Academy89%
324University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Naval Academy16%upset
325SUNY Maritime CollegeU. S. Merchant Marine Academy68%
326U. S. Naval AcademySt. Mary's College of Maryland69%
327University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Merchant Marine Academy77%
328St. Mary's College of MarylandSUNY Maritime College79%
329U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy94%
330University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College61%

Round 1

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersSeahawksPrivateersMariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen4–0✕WWWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers3–1L✕WWW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks2–2LL✕WW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers0–4LLL✕L
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners1–3LLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersSeahawksPrivateersMariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–1✕LWWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers2–2W✕LLW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks3–1LW✕WW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers2–2LWL✕W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersSeahawksPrivateersMariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–1✕LWWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers4–0W✕WWW
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks2–2LL✕WW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–3LLL✕W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-5-6
3 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-5-6
4 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-4-5
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
6 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
7 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
8 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-6 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-5
9 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-4-5
10 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
11 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
12 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-6
13 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
14 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
15 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-3-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-5-6
16 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
17 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
18 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
19 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
20 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
21 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2-4-6
22 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-5-6
23 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-3-6 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2-4-5
24 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-3-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-5-6
25 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
26 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3-4-6
27 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-5-6
28 St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
29 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-4-6
30 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1030.1 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From SE (144°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1030.1 hPa

What this breeze does at George Washington/Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at George Washington/Georgetown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at George Washington/Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at George Washington/Georgetown: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →