| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 8–3 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 6–5 |
| 4 |  |
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | 2–9 |
| 5 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 21,260 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 26 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.333 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.41 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 86% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 8.30 school +0.38 | Grace Squires / Marina Dryer 2.74 Emma Tallman / Roxanne Snyder 2.69 Emily Alfortish / Chloe Hudgins 2.47 | 91% | 10–1 (91%) | +0.0 |
| 2 | University of South Florida Bulls | 3 | 6.33 school −0.10 | Emma Shakespeare / Olivia Smith 2.23 Heidi Hicks / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly 1.80 Sydney Monahan / Saleta Powell 2.38 | 51% | 8–3 (73%) | +2.4 |
| 3 | Jacksonville University Fins | 2 | 6.35 school −0.07 | Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.67 Kaitlyn Liebel / Mary Mann 1.77 Agija Elerte / Ella Bilow 1.95 | 51% | 6–5 (55%) | +0.4 |
| 4 | North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 4 | 5.79 school +0.11 | Isabella Du Plessis / Weatherley Tripp 2.06 Olivia Sowa / Jane Caroline Minchew Annika Milstien / Abby Scudder | 37% | 2–9 (18%) | −2.1 |
| 5 | Eckerd College Tritons | 5 | 4.18 school −0.12 | Eden Nykamp / Elissa Martinez 2.33 Tia Soultanakis / Tess Levanway Lily Schwartz / Amelia Johnson 1.14 | 10% | 0–8 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of South Florida | 6.33 | 7.70 | 8–3 | 5.6 | +1.36 | 2.3 | 8% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 6.35 | 6.56 | 6–5 | 5.6 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 8.30 | 8.30 | 10–1 | 10.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 4 | North Carolina State University | 5.79 | 4.48 | 2–9 | 4.1 | −1.31 | 1.8 | 98% |
| 5 | Eckerd College | 4.18 | 1.18 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agija Elerte | Jacksonville University | 1.95 | 2.16 | 6–5 | 5.6 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Isabella Du Plessis | North Carolina State University | 2.06 | 0.75 | 2–9 | 4.1 | −1.31 | 1.8 | 98% |
| Annika Milstien | North Carolina State University | 1.28 | -0.03 | 2–9 | 4.1 | −1.31 | 1.8 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | Wolfpack | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–1 | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Fins | Wolfpack | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–4 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 1–6 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Bulls | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Fins | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Grace Squires '24 |
Chloe Hudgins '24 Roxanne Snyder '23 Marina Dryer '26 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Sydney Monahan '23 |
Olivia Smith '23 Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24 Saleta Powell '25 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Agija Elerte '26 Emily Allen '25 Kaitlyn Liebel '26 |
Ella Bilow '26 Reagan Carris '26 Mary Mann '23 |
|
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | Annika Milstien '25 Isabella Du Plessis '24 Olivia Sowa '24 |
Abby Scudder '24 Weatherley Tripp '23 Jane Caroline Minchew '25 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Eden Nykamp '25 Lily Schwartz '25 Tia Soultanakis '26 |
Elissa Martinez '23 Amelia Johnson '25 Tess Levanway '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
