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Duckling Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 28 30 58
2 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 38 24 62
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 20 54 74
4 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 53 47 100
5 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 56 65 121
6 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 69 63 132
7 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 88 61 149
8 Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 1 109 108 217
9 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 4 96 132 228
10 Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 2 116 115 231
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 20 Yuri Berebitsky '27
Sierra Bell '27
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 2 1 2 4 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 28 Caroline Hurley '25
Lucas Schadewitz '24
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 3 2 3 1 5 1 1 2 7 5 4 4 38 Hunter Wheaton '27
Stella Doehring '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 4 5 5 3 4 4 6 4 3 4 5 6 53 Rowan Clinch '27
Elliot Nopp '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 6 4 6 5 6 5 7 5 4 2 3 3 56 Aidan Clark '24
Emily Avey '25
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 5 DNS 4 6 1 6 4 6 6 9 6 5 69 Quincy Spurlock '24 [1-8]
Ethan Wickman '25 [9-12]
Austin Victer '25 [1-10]
Ethan Wickman '25 [11-12]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 7 DNF 8 8 8 7 5 7 5 6 8 8 88 Ryan Tuttle '27 [1-12]
Una Meidav '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Haley (Mae) Lohf '26 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 4 8 7 7 7 7 9 DNS DNS 8 7 7 7 96 Audrey Lillie '26 [1-12]
Dylan Murphy '26 [1-8]
Sadie Creemer '25 [9-10]
Ella Notdurft '25 [11-12]
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 1 9 6 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 10 DNS DNS 109 Kevin Mcgann '25 [1-8, 11-12]
Alexis Von Doersten '27 [9-10]
Brianne Mckenna '28 [1-2, 11-12]
Addie Belcher '25 [3-4, 9-10]
Ardumus Burnette '27 [5-6]
Grace Lavigne '26 [7-8]
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 2 10 8 DNS DNS 10 10 8 9 9 8 DNS DNS 116 Alexis Von Doersten '27 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12]
Gabi Feleciano '27 [3-4, 7-10]
Grace Lavigne '26 [1-6, 11-12]
Brianne Mckenna '28 [7-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 3 2 1 4 1 4 2 1 1 2 2 1 24 Cassius Tossavainen '26
Stella Doehring '25
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 1 5 3 1 4 2 1 2 4 1 1 5 30 Allison Sasaki '24
Julia Grams '24
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 4 3 2 3 3 6 3 5 7 6 3 2 47 Molly Mcleod '25
Joseph Qualtier '27
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 1 4 2 5 7 6 4 2 7 7 7 54 Jack Beeson '26
Morgan Walden '26
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 5 DNS 7 5 2 1 5 7 3 3 6 6 61 Dylan Zink '27
Sadie Creemer '25
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 6 4 5 8 8 3 7 3 6 5 4 4 63 Ethan Wickman '25 [1-10]
Austin Victer '25 [11-12]
Ethan Wickman '25 [1-10]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 7 6 8 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 5 3 65 Kate Ryan '25
Ella Notdurft '25
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 1 8 7 6 7 9 9 DNS DNS 9 9 DNS DNS 108 Gabi Feleciano '27 [1-12]
Addie Belcher '25 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Grace Lavigne '26 [3-6]
Ardumus Burnette '27 [9-10]
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Bulldogs 2 DNF DNS 9 9 7 8 DNS DNS 8 8 DNS DNS 115 Kevin Mcgann '25 [1-8, 10-12]
Addie Belcher '25 [9]
Ardumus Burnette '27 [1-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Addie Belcher '25 [5-6, 9-10]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 132 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Gonzaga UniversityGonzaga University Bulldogs 1737373737373737373737373
Gonzaga UniversityGonzaga University Bulldogs 2747474747474747474747474
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 1111111111111
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 2222222222222
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 3333333333333
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 4444444444444
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 1777777777777
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 2757575757575757575757575

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Gonzaga UniversityGonzaga University Bulldogs 1737373737373737373737373
Gonzaga UniversityGonzaga University Bulldogs 2747474747474747474747474
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 1111111111111
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 2222222222222
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 3333333333333
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 4444444444444
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 1777777777777
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 2757575757575757575757575
School / Team SkipperCrew
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Kevin Mcgann '25 [1-8, 11-12]
Alexis Von Doersten '27 [9-10]		 Brianne Mckenna '28 [1-2, 11-12]
Addie Belcher '25 [3-4, 9-10]
Ardumus Burnette '27 [5-6]
Grace Lavigne '26 [7-8]
Bulldogs 1 Gabi Feleciano '27 [1-12] Addie Belcher '25 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Grace Lavigne '26 [3-6]
Ardumus Burnette '27 [9-10]
Gonzaga University Gonzaga University Alexis Von Doersten '27 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12]
Gabi Feleciano '27 [3-4, 7-10]		 Grace Lavigne '26 [1-6, 11-12]
Brianne Mckenna '28 [7-10]
Bulldogs 2 Kevin Mcgann '25 [1-8, 10-12]
Addie Belcher '25 [9]		 Ardumus Burnette '27 [1-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Addie Belcher '25 [5-6, 9-10]
Oregon State University Oregon State University Hunter Wheaton '27 Stella Doehring '25
Beavers 1 Cassius Tossavainen '26 Stella Doehring '25
Oregon State University Oregon State University Quincy Spurlock '24 [1-8]
Ethan Wickman '25 [9-12]		 Austin Victer '25 [1-10]
Ethan Wickman '25 [11-12]
Beavers 2 Ethan Wickman '25 [1-10]
Austin Victer '25 [11-12]		 Ethan Wickman '25 [1-10]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Rowan Clinch '27 Elliot Nopp '25
Ducks 1 Molly Mcleod '25 Joseph Qualtier '27
University of Oregon University of Oregon Aidan Clark '24 Emily Avey '25
Ducks 2 Kate Ryan '25 Ella Notdurft '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ryan Tuttle '27 [1-12] Una Meidav '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Haley (Mae) Lohf '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Ducks 3 Dylan Zink '27 Sadie Creemer '25
University of Oregon University of Oregon Audrey Lillie '26 [1-12] Dylan Murphy '26 [1-8]
Sadie Creemer '25 [9-10]
Ella Notdurft '25 [11-12]
Ducks 4 No Show No Show
Western Washington University Western Washington University Yuri Berebitsky '27 Sierra Bell '27
Vikings 1 Jack Beeson '26 Morgan Walden '26
Western Washington University Western Washington University Caroline Hurley '25 Lucas Schadewitz '24
Vikings 2 Allison Sasaki '24 Julia Grams '24

Conditions — 04/06/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From SSW (207°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1023.2 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn · SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.20)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.53 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →