Sunday Southern #5 Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 47
2 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 56
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 62
4 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 84
5 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 119
6 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 139
7 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 158
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 159
9 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 202
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 A 5 2 2 3 3 1 16 Duncan Craine '26
Madeline Synnestvedt '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 2 9 4 5 1 3 24 Zachary Severson '26
Emily Grevell '27
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 B 6 7 9 2 2 2 28 William Hurd '27
Griffin Stead '27
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 B 3 3 7 7 6 5 31 Jake Demos '27
Finley Regan '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 1 12 1 4 8 6 32 Sam Ingalls '24
Sarah Baker '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 A 4 8 3 1 5 13 34 Matias Martin '27
Alejandro Amezcua '25
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 11 4 8 6 7 4 40 John Divelbiss '24
Celia Del Rosso '24
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 10 1 5 13 4 11 44 Luke Kenahan '27
Joseph Gedraitis '27
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 7 6 10 10 12 8 53 Jett Lindelof '27
Peter Ellis '27
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 A 9 11 14 8 11 7 60 Jake Lacoche '26
Julia Cotsonas '26
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 8 15 6 16 10 10 65 Tyler Winowiecki '27
Charlotte Martinez '23
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 13 13 13 9 9 9 66 Amanda Yolles '26
Matthew Straub '27
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 12 10 12 12 13 15 74 Sean Morrison '27
Lilly Dubovsky '27
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 A 14 5 11 14 14 17 75 Lucas Wiatrowski '27
Amelia Fisher '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 B 15 14 16 11 16 12 84 Sonja Krajewski '26
Jack Brennen '25
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 A 17 16 15 15 17 14 94 Cameron Mclean '26
Devyn Weed '25
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 B 16 17 17 17 15 16 98 Brendan Obrien '27
Claire Komar '27
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 B 18 18 18 18 18 18 108 Gavin Tucker '26
Kathleen Hanson '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 1222222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 2333333
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers444444
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 1666666
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 2777777
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 3888888
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams999999
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats101010101010
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 1111111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 2121212121212
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers131313131313
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 1151515151515
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 2161616161616
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 3171717171717
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams181818181818
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks141414141414

Conditions — 04/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 29.2 kn
From N (8°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Rhode Island: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →