South Points 2 Jensen Beach V

HostUSSCMC
Date10/19/2019
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	19	7	26
2	Good Hope County Day School	Panthers	21	13	34
3	Manatee High School	Hurricanes	18	27	45
4	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	18	27	45
5	Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	25	21	46
6	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	41	12	53
7	Sarasota High School	Sailors	49	23	72
8	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	24	59	83
9	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	38	49	87
10	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	51	44	95
11	St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	61	36	97
12	St. Stephen's Episcopal School	Varsity	45	54	99
13	Westminster Christian School	Warriors	60	42	102
14	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	56	46	102
15	Riverview High School	Varsity	56	68	124
16	Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	48	78	126
17	The Pine School	Knights	35	92	127
18	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	53	77	130
19	Naples High School	Varsity	72	67	139
20	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	72	68	140
21	Martin County High School	Tigers	68	82	150
22	Dunedin High School	Varsity	92	62	154
23	MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	87	78	165
24	Palm Harbor University High School	Varsity	92	75	167
25	Venice High School (FL)	Varsity	85	89	174

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Manatee High School	Hurricanes	1	5	4	8	18	Bryce Tone '21 Matthew Mackin '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	3	3	3	9	18	Connor Boland '21 [1-4] Garrett Dixon '21 [1-2] Isa Duplessis '20 [3-4]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	5	1	8	5	19	Lachlain Mc Granahan '20 Hannah Bast '21
Good Hope County Day School	Panthers	7	11	2	1	21	Mathieu Dale '21 Lucy Klempen '20
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	8	8	5	3	24	Guthrie Braun '22 Thomas Cura '21
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	2	2	6	15	25	Justin Callahan '22 [1-4] Chiara Mierek '20 [1-2] Antonio Miranda '20 [3-4]
The Pine School	Knights	12	7	10	6	35	Peter Foley '22 Jack Squier '21
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	11	13	7	7	38	Emily Bornarth '20 Ryan Ince '21
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	BKD	18	1	12	41	Daniel Hughes '21 [1-4] Madeline Hughes '22 [1-2] Chris Purcell '21 [3-4]
St. Stephen's Episcopal School	Varsity	4	6	15	20	45	J.J. (Jessica) Smith '20 Ben Defelice '23
Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	9	16	13	10	48	Mylee Smith '21 Katherine Bounassi '23
Sarasota High School	Sailors	6	9	20	14	49	Matthew King '20 Nick Powers '21
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	14	19	14	4	51	Chloe Hudgins '20 Griffin Barron '21
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	13	12	DSQ	2	53	Audrey Russler '26 Paulina Freyre '25
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	16	4	18	18	56	Garrett Brooks '22 [1-4] Emmy Digiacomo '20 [1-2] Spencer Brooks '20 [3-4]
Riverview High School	Varsity	17	15	11	13	56	Peter Eberley '21 Jonas Sroka '24
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	10	10	21	19	60	Enzo Menditto '22 [1-4] Mariana Sierra '23 [1-2] Fernando Sierra '22 [3-4]
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	19	17	9	16	61	Emma Shakespeare '20 Tyler Rogers '20
Martin County High School	Tigers	23	22	12	11	68	Marc Kiener '20 Cameron Lott '20
Naples High School	Varsity	15	14	22	21	72	Thomas Connell '20 Cooper Atkins '23
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	18	20	17	17	72	Hilton Kamps '22 [1-4] Bryce Weisser '23 [1-2] Raquel Shulman '22 [3-4]
Venice High School (FL)	Varsity	22	25	16	22	85	Zoe Watson '22 Anna Roberts '22
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	20	21	23	23	87	Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20 Noah Guntow '20
Dunedin High School	Varsity	21	23	24	24	92	Jacob Armitage '20 [1-4] Johnathan Whitcomb '23 [1-2] Ethan Pestana '23 [3-4]
Palm Harbor University High School	Varsity	24	24	19	25	92	Kyle Funderburk '20 Nick Silvestro '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	1	3	2	1	7	Liam O'Keefe '21 Claire Holzman '21
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	2	1	1	8	12	Kyle Bramson '20 Karen Liberman '20
Good Hope County Day School	Panthers	3	4	3	3	13	Jj Klempen '23 Carson Oakley '22
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	9	6	4	2	21	Mitchell Callahan '22 [1-4] Isabela Martinez-Moure '20 [1-2] Brianna Ross '22 [3-4]
Sarasota High School	Sailors	4	10	5	4	23	Will Murray '20 Kay Brumsvold '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	5	7	9	6	27	Joey Meagher '20 Kenna Reed '20
Manatee High School	Hurricanes	RDG	5	6	10	27	Nick Dewitt '22 Riley Baugh '20
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	8	2	12	14	36	Emily Allen '21 Sidney Moyer '23
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	16	11	10	5	42	Charlie Leigh '22 Joshua Pike '22
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	6	15	11	12	44	Coby Flannery '21 Andrew Bultman '23
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	13	13	7	13	46	Reid Nelson '23 [1-4] Noelle Dennis '22 [1-2] Emmy Digiacomo '20 [3-4]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	15	9	16	9	49	Katelyn Herter '20 Zuzanna Barska '22
St. Stephen's Episcopal School	Varsity	7	12	17	18	54	Kaitlyn Liebel '22 [1-4] Brandon Shirmer '23 [1-2] Bryce Griggs '23 [3-4]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	12	DSQ	14	7	59	Heather Kerns '20 Heidi Hicks '21
Dunedin High School	Varsity	14	8	25	15	62	Olivia Mikkelsen '23 Tony Perez '23
Naples High School	Varsity	25	23	8	11	67	Lauren Connell '22 [1-4] Conner Bricco '22 [1-2] Maia Musial '22 [3-4]
Riverview High School	Varsity	17	17	15	19	68	Aden Anderson '21 Hannah Yates '21
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	20	18	13	17	68	Will Dimaio '22 Meave Mullen '23
Palm Harbor University High School	Varsity	18	14	23	20	75	Niah Ford '22 Liam Vining '21
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	21	19	21	16	77	Carolina Gaston '21 Natalie Scherr '20
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	10	22	24	22	78	Nicholas Stange '20 [1-4] Grace Lamb '20 [1-2] Austin Daigle '20 [3-4]
Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	19	16	20	23	78	Johnmark Gaponiuk '20 Sarah Eliason '21
Martin County High School	Tigers	23	20	18	21	82	Kathryn Thorsen '21 Jennifer Donelon '22
Venice High School (FL)	Varsity	22	21	22	24	89	Alyssa Jongsma '23 [1-2] Peyton Dec '23 [3-4] Molly James '22 [1-2] Kane Fenton '23 [3-4]
The Pine School	Knights	24	24	19	25	92	Michael Blotnick '23 Sara Velcani '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.220+0.22

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	23	23	9	9
Dunedin High School Varsity	6	6	18	18
Good Hope County Day School Panthers	9	9	15	15
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	18	18	25	25
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	25	25	4	4
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	2	2	12	12
Manatee High School Hurricanes	12	12	21	21
Martin County High School Tigers	3	3	22	22
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	4	4	3	3
Naples High School Varsity	21	21	8	8
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	22	22	17	17
Palm Harbor University High School Varsity	8	8	10	10
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	15	15	2	2
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	17	17	11	11
Riverview High School Varsity	10	10	14	14
St. Stephen's Episcopal School Varsity	13	13	5	5
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	24	24	16	16
Sarasota High School Sailors	11	11	1	1
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	14	14	19	19
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	1	1	13	13
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	19	19	24	24
The Pine School Knights	5	5	20	20
Venice High School (FL) Varsity	16	16	26	26
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach	20	20	23	23
Westminster Christian School Warriors	26	26	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	6	6	18	18
Dunedin High School Varsity	9	9	15	15
Good Hope County Day School Panthers	18	18	25	25
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	15	15	2	2
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	2	2	12	12
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	4	4	3	3
Manatee High School Hurricanes	3	3	22	22
Martin County High School Tigers	21	21	8	8
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	12	12	21	21
Naples High School Varsity	22	22	17	17
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	8	8	10	10
Palm Harbor University High School Varsity	17	17	11	11
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	25	25	4	4
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	10	10	14	14
Riverview High School Varsity	11	11	1	1
St. Stephen's Episcopal School Varsity	24	24	16	16
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	5	5	20	20
Sarasota High School Sailors	14	14	19	19
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	1	1	13	13
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	19	19	24	24
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	13	13	5	5
The Pine School Knights	16	16	26	26
Venice High School (FL) Varsity	20	20	23	23
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach	26	26	6	6
Westminster Christian School Warriors	23	23	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Audrey Russler '26	Paulina Freyre '25
Carrollton School	Carolina Gaston '21	Natalie Scherr '20
Dunedin High School	Jacob Armitage '20 [1-4]	Johnathan Whitcomb '23 [1-2] Ethan Pestana '23 [3-4]
Varsity	Olivia Mikkelsen '23	Tony Perez '23
Good Hope County Day School	Mathieu Dale '21	Lucy Klempen '20
Panthers	Jj Klempen '23	Carson Oakley '22
Gulliver Preparatory School	Daniel Hughes '21 [1-4]	Madeline Hughes '22 [1-2] Chris Purcell '21 [3-4]
Raiders	Kyle Bramson '20	Karen Liberman '20
H. B. Plant High School	Garrett Brooks '22 [1-4]	Emmy Digiacomo '20 [1-2] Spencer Brooks '20 [3-4]
Panthers	Reid Nelson '23 [1-4]	Noelle Dennis '22 [1-2] Emmy Digiacomo '20 [3-4]
Immaculata La Salle High School	Justin Callahan '22 [1-4]	Chiara Mierek '20 [1-2] Antonio Miranda '20 [3-4]
Royal Lions	Mitchell Callahan '22 [1-4]	Isabela Martinez-Moure '20 [1-2] Brianna Ross '22 [3-4]
Jensen Beach High School	Chloe Hudgins '20	Griffin Barron '21
Falcons	Coby Flannery '21	Andrew Bultman '23
MOA/Westwood High School	Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20	Noah Guntow '20
Panthers	Nicholas Stange '20 [1-4]	Grace Lamb '20 [1-2] Austin Daigle '20 [3-4]
Manatee High School	Bryce Tone '21	Matthew Mackin '21
Hurricanes	Nick Dewitt '22	Riley Baugh '20
Martin County High School	Marc Kiener '20	Cameron Lott '20
Tigers	Kathryn Thorsen '21	Jennifer Donelon '22
Naples High School	Thomas Connell '20	Cooper Atkins '23
Varsity	Lauren Connell '22 [1-4]	Conner Bricco '22 [1-2] Maia Musial '22 [3-4]
Oxbridge Academy	Hilton Kamps '22 [1-4]	Bryce Weisser '23 [1-2] Raquel Shulman '22 [3-4]
ThunderWolves	Will Dimaio '22	Meave Mullen '23
Palm Harbor University High School	Kyle Funderburk '20	Nick Silvestro '22
Varsity	Niah Ford '22	Liam Vining '21
Ransom Everglades School	Lachlain Mc Granahan '20	Hannah Bast '21
Raiders	Liam O'Keefe '21	Claire Holzman '21
Riverview High School	Peter Eberley '21	Jonas Sroka '24
Varsity	Aden Anderson '21	Hannah Yates '21
Sarasota High School	Matthew King '20	Nick Powers '21
Sailors	Will Murray '20	Kay Brumsvold '21
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Guthrie Braun '22	Thomas Cura '21
Chargers	Heather Kerns '20	Heidi Hicks '21
South Fork High School	Emily Bornarth '20	Ryan Ince '21
SF BULLDOGS	Katelyn Herter '20	Zuzanna Barska '22
St. Petersburg High School	Emma Shakespeare '20	Tyler Rogers '20
Green Devils	Emily Allen '21	Sidney Moyer '23
St. Stephen's Episcopal School	J.J. (Jessica) Smith '20	Ben Defelice '23
Varsity	Kaitlyn Liebel '22 [1-4]	Brandon Shirmer '23 [1-2] Bryce Griggs '23 [3-4]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Connor Boland '21 [1-4]	Garrett Dixon '21 [1-2] Isa Duplessis '20 [3-4]
Raiders	Joey Meagher '20	Kenna Reed '20
The Pine School	Peter Foley '22	Jack Squier '21
Knights	Michael Blotnick '23	Sara Velcani '21
Venice High School (FL)	Zoe Watson '22	Anna Roberts '22
Varsity	Alyssa Jongsma '23 [1-2] Peyton Dec '23 [3-4]	Molly James '22 [1-2] Kane Fenton '23 [3-4]
Vero Beach High School	Mylee Smith '21	Katherine Bounassi '23
Vero Beach	Johnmark Gaponiuk '20	Sarah Eliason '21
Westminster Christian School	Enzo Menditto '22 [1-4]	Mariana Sierra '23 [1-2] Fernando Sierra '22 [3-4]
Warriors	Charlie Leigh '22	Joshua Pike '22

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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South Points 2 Jensen Beach V

Division A

Division B

From the notes