Good Hope County Day School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.32 (fleet 3.76) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 40–12 (77%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 13–6 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 3 | 27–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 40–12 against 40.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | skipper | 2.44 | 3.19 | 6–3 | 4.9 | +0.76 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 2.27 | 1.41 | 7–3 | 8.0 | −0.87 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 2.10 | 1.40 | 9–3 | 9.9 | −0.69 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2021-10-09 | VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 2.11 | 1.46 | 9–2 | 9.6 | −0.65 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2021-09-25 | VISA Norfolk Academy Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.90 | 3.24 | 9–1 | 7.7 | +1.34 | 0.9 | 28% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| SP 7 | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.6 | 0.18 |
| South Points #4 Varsity | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 2.54 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points 2 Jensen Beach V | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 2.73 |
| SAISA South Points #1 - Varsity | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 0.91 |
| CofC Invitational | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.8 | 1.25 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jj Klempen |  Hobart and William Smith Colleges |
'27 |
| ISSA | Jj Klempen |  Christchurch School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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