MDISA St. Marys Ryken Tier 2 Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 19 15 34
2 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 34 13 47
3 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 26 28 54
4 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 14 43 57
5 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 2 49 19 68
6 Alexandria City High School Alexandria City High School Titans 32 40 72
7 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 41 39 80
8 Washington Latin Washington Latin Lions 38 43 81
9 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 49 36 85
10 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 1 32 54 86
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 1 4 1 3 4 1 14 Charlie Mcgeady '29
Carson Zinkgraf '28
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2 2 2 5 3 5 19 Adam Kurpiewski '27
Owen Henry '28
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 3 3 3 6 2 9 26 James Reilly '28
Romeo Cayangyang '27
Alexandria City High School Alexandria City High School Titans 4 7 8 4 6 3 32 Dylan Jacobson '28 [1-6]
Sophia Lenzner '27 [1-3]
Avelyn Dannes '28 [4-6]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 1 7 5 5 1 7 7 32 Nolan Wingate '28
Loundin Curtis '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 6 1 4 8 5 10 34 Luke Johnson '25 [1-6]
Shane Churilla '25 [1-3]
Kai Combs '27 [4-6]
Washington Latin Washington Latin Lions DNF DNS DNS 2 1 2 38 Mercer Rensberger '28
Karina Schmoyer '29
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 8 6 6 7 10 4 41 Chloe Cummings '25
Ben Rashkin '28
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 5 9 7 DNF 9 8 49 Logan Pavis '26 [1-6]
Tejas Suri '28 [1-3]
Georgia Mudd '26 [4-6]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 2 9 8 9 9 8 6 49 Max Wingate '30
Asher Eggan '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 2 2 4 3 1 1 13 James Stahl '27 [1-3]
Amelia Wire '27 [4-6]
Amelia Wire '27 [1-3]
James Stahl '27 [4-6]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1 4 2 4 2 2 15 Alex Julian '28
Vika Ferus '27
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 2 3 1 1 2 3 9 19 Thomas Birchfield '27
Logan Coons '26
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 6 9 3 1 6 3 28 William Marschner '26
Anna Grace Gutfleish '27
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 4 3 7 7 7 8 36 Alex Dusterwald '27 [1-6]
Michael Finarelli '25 [1-3]
Ocean Williams '28 [4-6]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 9 5 5 6 10 4 39 Callie Flesch '28
Eve Cintron '26
Alexandria City High School Alexandria City High School Titans 8 7 10 5 4 6 40 Madeline Cook '27 [1-3]
Alexandria Hou '29 [4-6]
Mia Laguerre '30 [1-3]
Sophia Lenzner '27 [4-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 6 8 8 9 7 43 Brandon Hall '28 [1-4]
Ryan Stebbins '28 [5-6]
Lucille Leigh '28 [1-4]
Logan Lahtinen '28 [5-6]
Washington Latin Washington Latin Lions 7 10 6 10 5 5 43 Eliana Arteaga '29
Kailash Hsu '30
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 1 10 8 9 RDG 8 10 54 Jekari Mason '29
Colt Touchton '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Alexandria City High SchoolAlexandria City High School Titans777999
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers888101010
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron999111111
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights101010121212
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins111111111
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers 1121212222
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers 2111333
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights222444
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings333777
Washington LatinWashington Latin Lions444888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Alexandria City High SchoolAlexandria City High School Titans888101010
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers999111111
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron101010121212
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights111111111
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins121212222
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers 1111333
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers 2222444
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights333777
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings444888
Washington LatinWashington Latin Lions777999

Conditions — 05/10/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 39%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1020.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →