Gig Harbor High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–10 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 5–5 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 3–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 8–10 against 10.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.40 | 1.10 | 5–5 | 6.8 | −1.31 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2016-04-30 | SSP Team Race - SILVER | skipper | 1.85 | 1.51 | 2–3 | 2.3 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2016-04-09 | Bainbridge Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 0.77 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.86 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.5 | -0.41 |
| NWISA South Regionals | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.0 | 1.55 |
| Port Townsend Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.6 | 0.36 |
| NWISA Islands Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 1.78 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alyosha Strum-Palerm |  North Kitsap High School |
'17 |
| ISSA | Alyosha Strum-Palerm |  Charles Wright Academy |
'18 |
| ISSA | Alyosha Strum-Palerm |  Science and Math Institute |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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