North Kitsap High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.29 (fleet -0.30) | 228 of 231 | −0.11 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–30 (14%) as crew 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–6 | 2–4 |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 0–5 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 3–19 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 5–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 12–37 against 18.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 0.00 | -1.36 | 2–6 | 3.8 | −1.36 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2025-04-12 | Team Race Seeding Regatta | crew | 0.00 | 0.77 | 2–4 | 1.3 | +0.76 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2024-04-20 | Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | -0.14 | -3.14 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | -0.04 | -1.04 | 3–9 | 4.6 | −1.00 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2023-04-22 | Silver Division Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | -0.10 | -3.10 | 0–10 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.3 | >99% |
| 2022-04-30 | Silver Division Team Racing Championship | crew | 0.81 | 1.73 | 5–3 | 3.6 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 26% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Championships-SILVER | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.9 | -0.48 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Elsa Bischoff |  Olympic High School (WA) |
'26 |
| ISSA | Elsa Bischoff |  Central Kitsap High School |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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