Point Loma High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.71) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–14 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 6–7 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 9–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 15–14 against 18.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | PCISA Team Racing PCCs | skipper | 2.72 | 1.00 | 6–7 | 8.9 | −1.72 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2017-04-29 | PCISA Team Racing District Championships | skipper | 2.08 | 1.85 | 9–7 | 9.5 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA #5 - Gaucho GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 25.2 | -0.73 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sea Otter Regatta, Gold | Skipper | A | 7 | 18.1 | 0.12 |
| Rose Bowl - Gold | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.5 | 2.08 |
| 2015 Anteater Regatta - Gold | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.3 | 1.30 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Silver Pacific Coast Champs | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 2.16 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SoCal#2 Gold | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.0 | 1.40 |
| PCISA SoCal #3 GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 2.65 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jack Joslin |  Parker |
'18 |
| ISSA | Jack Joslin |  Corona del Mar High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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