| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Mary Hall '15 | 28 |
| 2 |  |
Hampton University | Giuditta Di Laghi '16 | 32 |
| 3 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Marissa Lihan '14 | 37 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Catherine Shanahan '15 | 37 |
| 5 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Kayla Mccomb '13 | 40 |
| 6 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Lauren Schoene '13 | 57 |
| 7 |  |
Georgetown University | Nancy Hagood '14 | 66 |
| 8 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Emma Ferris '15 | 73 |
| 9 | |
Georgetown University | Merritt Moran '14 | 74 |
| 10 | |
Georgetown University | Alexis Coudert '15 | 78 |
| 11 |  |
Old Dominion University | Corina Radtke '14 | 83 |
| 12 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Killian Corbishley '14 | 88 |
| 13 | |
Old Dominion University | Katie Cummings '14 | 98 |
| 14 | |
Old Dominion University | Rachel Austin '14 | 98 |
| 15 |  |
Washington College | Mackenzie Needham '15 | 100 |
| 16 | |
Old Dominion University | Andrea Luna '15 | 101 |
| 17 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Noel Ingalls '15 | 134 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mary Hall '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 8/8 | 1.95 | 3.50 | +1.55 | 50th → 90th | 5.1 | 2% | 3.5 / 7.6 |
| 2 | Giuditta Di Laghi '16 | Hampton University | 8/8 | 1.36 | 3.20 | +1.84 | 32nd → 85th | 7.0 | 1% | 4.0 / 9.2 |
| 3 | Catherine Shanahan '15 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 | 8/8 | 1.76 | 3.05 | +1.29 | 43rd → 83rd | 3.9 | 5% | 4.6 / 8.1 |
| 3 | Marissa Lihan '14 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 8/8 | 1.92 | 3.00 | +1.08 | 48th → 82nd | 2.8 | 8% | 4.6 / 7.7 |
| 5 | Kayla Mccomb '13 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 8/8 | 1.81 | 2.24 | +0.43 | 44th → 59th | 0.4 | 14% | 5.0 / 8.1 |
| 6 | Lauren Schoene '13 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 8/8 | 1.36 | 2.15 | +0.79 | 32nd → 56th | 1.7 | 25% | 7.1 / 9.1 |
| 7 | Nancy Hagood '14 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 8/8 | 1.81 | 1.90 | +0.09 | 44th → 48th | 0.0 | 58% | 8.2 / 7.9 |
| 8 | Emma Ferris '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 | 8/8 | 0.98 | 1.40 | +0.42 | 22nd → 34th | 0.5 | 35% | 9.1 / 10.1 |
| 9 | Merritt Moran '14 | Georgetown University Hoyas 3 | 8/8 | 1.13 | 1.41 | +0.28 | 25th → 34th | 0.2 | 43% | 9.2 / 9.8 |
| 10 | Alexis Coudert '15 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 8/8 | 1.11 | 1.60 | +0.49 | 25th → 40th | 0.7 | 50% | 9.8 / 9.8 |
| 11 | Corina Radtke '14 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 8/8 | 1.41 | 1.10 | −0.31 | 34th → 25th | 0.3 | 72% | 10.4 / 9.0 |
| 12 | Killian Corbishley '14 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 8/8 | 1.38 | 1.26 | −0.12 | 33rd → 29th | 0.0 | 74% | 11.0 / 9.1 |
| 13 | Katie Cummings '14 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 8/8 | 1.71 | 0.90 | −0.81 | 42nd → 21st | 2.5 | 92% | 12.2 / 8.3 |
| 13 | Rachel Austin '14 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 | 8/8 | 1.21 | 0.48 | −0.73 | 28th → 14th | 1.7 | 87% | 12.2 / 9.6 |
| 15 | Mackenzie Needham '15 | Washington College | 8/8 | 1.18 | 0.87 | −0.31 | 27th → 21st | 0.3 | 84% | 12.5 / 9.7 |
| 16 | Andrea Luna '15 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 4 | 8/8 | 1.67 | 0.70 | −0.97 | 41st → 17th | 3.7 | 97% | 12.6 / 8.4 |
| 17 | Noel Ingalls '15 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 8/8 | 0.50 | -1.83 | −2.33 | 14th → 1st | 9.1 | >99% | 16.8 / 11.3 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
