Navigate

SAISA Open — Analysis

← Results

* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2016-W36). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,428 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.
  • — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  18 boats · 12 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Charles Morano '19 College of Charleston 12/12 306* 356 +50 89th → 95th 1.4 14% 3.2 / 5.3 332*
2 Samuel Normington '18 Eckerd College 12/12 257* 312 +56 80th → 90th 1.8 12% 4.3 / 6.5 279*
3 Conner Killham '18 Georgia Institute of Technology 12/12 189* 236 +47 66th → 76th 1.3 16% 6.0 / 8.6 202*
3 Jack Famiglietti '18 University of Florida 12/12 256* 252 -4 80th → 79th 0.0 42% 6.0 / 6.5 264*
5 Andre Guaragna '21 Jacksonville University 6/12 231n* 175 -56 75th → 63rd 1.3 62% 8.3 / 7.5 231*
5 Ethan Lounsbury '17 Jacksonville University 6/12 284* 280 -4 85th → 85th 0.0 51% 5.5 / 5.7 283*
6 John Fewell '20 University of South Carolina 12/12 224n* 196 -28 74th → 68th 0.6 54% 7.8 / 7.7 224*
7 Travis Tucker '20 North Carolina State University 12/12 170* 204 +35 61st → 70th 0.8 33% 7.9 / 9.1 185*
8 Abbie Probst '19 Clemson University 12/12 138* 199 +61 54th → 69th 2.3 20% 8.2 / 10.1 160*
9 Kelly Stukbauer '19 University of South Florida 9/12 205* 193 -12 70th → 67th 0.1 52% 8.1 / 8.1 202*
9 Zoe Knowles '20 University of South Florida 3/12 94n* 171 +77 44th → 62nd 0.9 41% 10.0 / 11.0 94*
10 Kyle Magno '18 University of Miami 12/12 197* 165 -32 68th → 60th 0.7 63% 8.9 / 8.3 211*
11 Alex Jones '19 University of North Carolina at Wilmington 12/12 137* 135 -2 54th → 53rd 0.0 61% 11.0 / 10.2 141*
11 Allison Chenard '19 University of Georgia 12/12 107* 129 +21 47th → 52nd 0.3 47% 11.0 / 11.1 113*
13 Elizabeth O'Connor '17 Duke University 12/12 176* 124 -52 63rd → 51st 2.2 85% 11.7 / 9.0 171*
14 Jeffrey Hayden '20 Florida State University 6/12 169n* 149 -20 61st → 57th 0.1 64% 10.7 / 9.3 169*
14 Rafael Melendez '17 Florida State University 6/12 66* 96 +30 38th → 44th 0.3 59% 13.0 / 12.3 83*
15 Maria Ayala '18 Rollins College 12/12 111* 64 -46 48th → 37th 1.5 84% 13.1 / 11.0 102*
16 Christopher Haseler '18 University of Tennessee 12/12 23* 68 +45 28th → 38th 1.0 44% 13.2 / 13.4 52*
17 Carter Cooper '20 Auburn University 6/12 101* 111 +10 45th → 48th 0.0 68% 13.0 / 11.5 80*
17 Jonathan Ashworth '17 Auburn University 3/12 -147* -83 +64 1st → 7th 0.2 20% 15.0 / 16.5 -145*
17 Kirsten Failing '17 Auburn University 3/12 -128* — — 3rd → — 1.8 >99% 18.0 / 16.2 -115*
18 Christopher Moe '17 The Citadel 12/12 8* -59 -67 24th → 11th 1.4 96% 16.8 / 13.8 -4*

Division B  18 boats · 12 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Samuel Armington '18 University of Florida 12/12 269* 342 +73 82nd → 93rd 2.3 3% 2.7 / 5.2 274*
2 Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Jacksonville University 6/12 345n* 412 +67 94th → 99th 1.0 24% 2.2 / 4.2 345*
2 David Hein '19 Jacksonville University 6/12 236n* 267 +31 76th → 82nd 0.3 37% 4.7 / 6.3 236*
3 Geoffrey Nelson '18 Eckerd College 12/12 335* 311 -23 93rd → 90th 0.3 45% 3.5 / 3.8 342*
4 Elizabeth Mignon '19 College of Charleston 12/12 272* 278 +6 83rd → 84th 0.0 41% 4.6 / 5.2 278*
5 Sylvia Hopkins '20 University of South Florida 9/12 162n* 149 -13 59th → 57th 0.1 39% 6.8 / 8.1 162*
5 Delaney Brown '20 University of South Florida 3/12 180* 174 -6 64th → 62nd 0.0 61% 8.0 / 7.5 193*
6 Curtis Woodworth '17 Florida State University 6/12 198* 317 +119 69th → 90th 3.6 8% 4.0 / 6.9 225*
6 Trevor Stone '20 Florida State University 6/12 73n* 39 -34 39th → 31st 0.4 70% 12.5 / 10.5 73*
7 Kara Wheeler '18 North Carolina State University 12/12 127* 92 -35 51st → 43rd 0.8 47% 8.8 / 9.0 125*
8 Max Thompson '19 University of Miami 9/12 209* 131 -78 71st → 52nd 3.6 82% 8.3 / 6.7 212*
8 Raymond Manngiaratti '18 University of Miami 3/12 111* 120 +9 48th → 50th 0.0 64% 10.3 / 9.3 112*
9 Stuart Wallace '18 Georgia Institute of Technology 6/12 124* 102 -22 51st → 46th 0.1 32% 7.7 / 9.1 123*
9 Jack Sparkman '19 Georgia Institute of Technology 3/12 111* 149 +38 48th → 57th 0.2 47% 9.0 / 9.4 118*
9 Joshua Kim '17 Georgia Institute of Technology 3/12 78* 62 -16 40th → 37th 0.0 66% 11.7 / 10.4 76*
10 John Sipp '18 Duke University 12/12 110* 76 -35 48th → 40th 0.8 61% 9.9 / 9.4 107*
11 Ashlyn Park '18 University of North Carolina at Wilmington 12/12 74* 90 +16 39th → 42nd 0.2 43% 10.0 / 10.4 81*
12 Jack Gonzales '18 University of South Carolina 9/12 24* 105 +80 28th → 46th 2.9 32% 10.7 / 11.7 116*
12 Alex Myers '19 University of South Carolina 3/12 72* 68 -4 39th → 38th 0.0 59% 11.3 / 10.5 89*
13 Chad Murray '17 Rollins College 12/12 48* 64 +16 34th → 37th 0.2 61% 11.8 / 11.1 46*
14 Ian Coyne '19 University of Tennessee 12/12 20* 25 +5 27th → 28th 0.0 58% 12.3 / 11.8 23*
15 Camden Hom '26 The Citadel 12/12 28n* 22 -6 29th → 28th 0.0 61% 12.6 / 11.4 28*
16 Andrew Hopkins '19 Clemson University 12/12 -38* -23 +15 15th → 18th 0.1 64% 14.1 / 13.2 -23*
17 Erica Trotter '17 University of Georgia 12/12 -142* -115 +27 2nd → 3rd 0.3 75% 16.4 / 15.4 -141*
18 Taylor Lemaitre '17 Auburn University 6/12 -196n* — — 1st → — 4.9 >99% 18.0 / 15.8 -196*
18 David Reuss '17 Auburn University 3/12 -51n* -60 -8 13th → 11th 0.0 73% 16.0 / 13.4 -51*
18 Jessica Huibregtse '19 Auburn University 3/12 -98* -125 -27 5th → 3rd 0.1 78% 16.7 / 14.7 -99*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →