LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Nationals

Women's
HostUC Santa Barbara
Date11/09/2019
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Boston College	Sophia Reineke '21	59
2	Stanford University	Christina Sakellaris '21	68
3	Jacksonville University	Charlotte Rose '22	76
4	Tufts University	Talia Toland '21	90
5	Cornell University	Lilly Myers '23	98
6	Queen's University	Clara Gravely '21	101
7	Stanford University	Hallie Schiffman '23	104
8	Boston College	Elizabeth Shanahan '23	107
9	Yale University	Louisa Nordstrom '20	111
10	Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	120
11	Brown University	Hannah Steadman '20	121
12	U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	131
13	Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	144
14	Tufts University	Alexandra Talbot '22	177
15	Tulane University	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22	195
16	Jacksonville University	Maartje Van Dam '23	219
17	Ohio University	Siri Schantz '23	229
18	University of Wisconsin	Rebekah Janssen '21	245

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Boston College	Sophia Reineke '21	1	4	3	3	1	4	4	4	7	5	12	3	1	7	59
Stanford University	Christina Sakellaris '21	7	5	2	2	3	2	2	5	4	4	5	7	9	11	68
Jacksonville University	Charlotte Rose '22	3	1	1	7	9	1	3	1	5	9	9	13	12	2	76
Tufts University	Talia Toland '21	4	2	11	5	6	6	6	9	3	7	6	5	7	13	90
Cornell University	Lilly Myers '23	6	7	9	6	5	8	12	2	6	2	2	14	10	9	98
Queen's University	Clara Gravely '21	11	3	4	13	8	3	7	3	2	14	13	9	3	8	101
Stanford University	Hallie Schiffman '23	8	10	13	4	2	10	10	12	12	1	8	2	11	1	104
Boston College	Elizabeth Shanahan '23	5	8	10	9	11	5	5	7	8	8	11	10	5	5	107
Yale University	Louisa Nordstrom '20	2	12	8	8	4	9	13	13	15	6	7	4	4	6	111
Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	16	13	5	11	16	7	9	6	1	12	3	12	6	3	120
Brown University	Hannah Steadman '20	9	11	14	1	12	14	8	10	11	3	1	1	14	12	121
U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	13	6	7	12	7	12	11	14	10	11	10	6	8	4	131
Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	10	9	15	10	10	11	1	16	17	13	4	16	2	10	144
Tufts University	Alexandra Talbot '22	12	14	12	14	14	13	14	8	9	10	15	15	13	14	177
Tulane University	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22	14	17	6	16	13	17	15	11	13	17	14	11	16	15	195
Jacksonville University	Maartje Van Dam '23	15	15	16	15	15	15	DNS	15	14	15	16	17	15	17	219
Ohio University	Siri Schantz '23	17	16	17	17	18	18	16	18	18	16	17	8	17	16	229
University of Wisconsin	Rebekah Janssen '21	18	18	18	18	17	16	17	17	16	18	18	18	18	18	245

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Sophia Reineke '21	Boston College Eagles 1	14/14	3.56	4.44	+0.88	92nd → 99th	3.2	6%	4.2 / 7.0
2	Christina Sakellaris '21	Stanford University Cardinal 1	14/14	3.21	4.29	+1.08	85th → 98th	5.0	6%	4.9 / 7.8
3	Charlotte Rose '22	Jacksonville University Fins 1	14/14	3.68	3.84	+0.16	93rd → 94th	0.1	28%	5.4 / 6.6
4	Talia Toland '21	Tufts University Jumbos 1	14/14	3.09	3.72	+0.63	83rd → 93rd	1.9	26%	6.4 / 8.2
5	Lilly Myers '23	Cornell University	14/14	3.28	3.50	+0.22	86th → 90th	0.3	42%	7.0 / 7.7
6	Clara Gravely '21	Queen's University	14/14	1.68	3.31	+1.62	42nd → 87th	10.3	3%	7.2 / 11.8
7	Hallie Schiffman '23	Stanford University Cardinal 2	14/14	3.19	3.33	+0.14	85th → 88th	0.1	42%	7.4 / 7.9
8	Elizabeth Shanahan '23	Boston College Eagles 2	14/14	2.28	3.50	+1.21	59th → 90th	6.5	11%	7.6 / 10.3
9	Louisa Nordstrom '20	Yale University	14/14	3.19	3.12	−0.07	85th → 84th	0.0	52%	7.9 / 7.9
10	Haddon Hughes '19	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	3.07	2.62	−0.45	83rd → 69th	1.0	59%	8.6 / 8.2
11	Hannah Steadman '20	Brown University	14/14	3.20	2.83	−0.37	85th → 77th	0.8	66%	8.6 / 7.9
12	Jessica Mcjones '20	U. S. Naval Academy	14/14	2.76	2.90	+0.15	73rd → 78th	0.1	56%	9.4 / 9.0
13	Carly Broussard '21	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	3.06	2.19	−0.87	83rd → 57th	4.3	85%	10.3 / 8.3
14	Alexandra Talbot '22	Tufts University Jumbos 2	14/14	2.37	2.06	−0.30	61st → 53rd	0.5	89%	12.6 / 10.1
15	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22	Tulane University	14/14	1.74	1.22	−0.52	43rd → 29th	1.4	82%	13.9 / 11.6
16	Maartje Van Dam '23	Jacksonville University Fins 2	14/14	1.62	1.19	−0.42	40th → 28th	0.9	96%	15.6 / 11.9
17	Siri Schantz '23	Ohio University	14/14	0.55	0.11	−0.45	15th → 8th	0.8	93%	16.4 / 14.3
18	Rebekah Janssen '21	University of Wisconsin	14/14	0.39	-1.29	−1.68	12th → 1st	6.9	99%	17.5 / 14.5

Conditions — 11/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 19% · Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 84°F ↓ 63°F

Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.5 kn

avg · max 7.0 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity19% Pressure1016.4 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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