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College Sailing Women's Singlehanded Nationals

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Charlotte Rose '22 DSQ 1 1 1 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 39
Boston College Boston College Sophia Reineke '22 1 2 5 2 1 1 2 7 2 5 5 5 1 1 40
Cornell University Cornell University Lilly Myers '23 2 6 3 3 3 2 4 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 49
Harvard University Harvard University Sophia Montgomery '25 4 3 4 6 2 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 8 51
Cornell University Cornell University Lucija Ruzevic '24 5 5 10 4 8 9 5 2 10 7 4 4 7 10 90
Tufts University Tufts University Talia Toland '22 3 4 2 5 10 12 12 3 9 10 6 8 12 3 99
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Christine Reimer '24 8 8 6 11 6 11 7 15 5 6 13 6 5 5 112
Stanford University Stanford University Grace Austin '24 12 13 9 7 5 10 6 8 13 8 12 12 8 6 129
Boston College Boston College Elizabeth Shanahan '23 6 10 7 13 17 6 9 13 6 4 7 13 13 14 138
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Heather Kerns '24 11 12 12 12 9 5 14 10 7 11 9 9 10 9 140
Tufts University Tufts University Alexandra Talbot '22 7 9 11 9 11 16 10 11 8 12 10 7 6 15 142
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Sarah Young '25 10 11 8 8 12 8 13 5 12 13 11 10 15 12 148
University of Miami University of Miami Marina Geilen '25 9 14 13 10 7 15 11 9 11 9 8 11 14 13 154
Tufts University Tufts University Annika Fedde '23 14 7 14 15 14 13 8 14 14 14 14 14 16 16 187
Georgetown University Georgetown University Piper Holthus '25 13 15 15 16 13 7 17 12 16 16 15 16 11 11 193
Tulane University Tulane University Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 16 16 16 14 15 14 15 16 15 15 16 15 9 7 199
Ohio University Ohio University Siri Schantz '23 15 17 17 17 16 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 234
Cornell University Cornell University Lauren Ehnot '24 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 266

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Charlotte Rose '22Jacksonville University14/143.996.90+2.9195th → 99th18.12%2.8 / 6.0
2Sophia Reineke '22Boston College Eagles 114/143.865.14+1.2994th → 99th6.04%2.9 / 6.3
3Lilly Myers '23Cornell University Big Red 214/143.574.83+1.2692nd → 99th6.25%3.5 / 7.0
4Sophia Montgomery '25Harvard University14/143.574.70+1.1392nd → 99th5.13%3.6 / 7.0
5Lucija Ruzevic '24Cornell University Big Red 314/143.033.53+0.5083rd → 92nd1.218%6.4 / 8.4
6Talia Toland '22Tufts University Jumbos 314/142.933.21+0.2879th → 85th0.422%7.1 / 8.7
7Christine Reimer '24Bowdoin College14/142.312.96+0.6660th → 81st2.020%8.0 / 10.3
8Grace Austin '24Stanford University14/142.582.71+0.1367th → 72nd0.144%9.2 / 9.6
9Elizabeth Shanahan '23Boston College Eagles 214/142.262.27+0.0159th → 59th0.039%9.9 / 10.4
10Heather Kerns '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges14/142.222.59+0.3658th → 68th0.741%10.0 / 10.6
11Alexandra Talbot '22Tufts University Jumbos 214/142.372.37−0.0061st → 61st0.049%10.1 / 10.2
12Sarah Young '25Dartmouth College14/142.722.35−0.3772nd → 60th0.876%10.6 / 9.2
13Marina Geilen '25University of Miami14/141.952.31+0.3650th → 60th0.745%11.0 / 11.2
14Annika Fedde '23Tufts University Jumbos 114/142.321.51−0.8160th → 38th4.293%13.4 / 10.3
15Piper Holthus '25Georgetown University14/142.511.04−1.4764th → 24th13.298%13.8 / 9.8
16Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22Tulane University14/142.230.98−1.2558th → 22nd9.394%14.2 / 10.5
17Siri Schantz '23Ohio University14/140.38-1.01−1.3912th → 1st3.791%16.7 / 14.8
18Lauren Ehnot '24Cornell University Big Red 114/142.11——55th → —0.0>99%19.0 / 10.8

Conditions — 11/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1027.7 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From NNE (27°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1027.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →