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Janet Lutz Trophy

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Harvard University Harvard University Sophia Montgomery '25 4 2 2 1 3 1 4 19 6 5 3 4 1 3 58
Stanford University Stanford University Hallie Schiffman '23 19 3 4 5 5 2 2 1 3 3 13 6 3 4 73
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Christine Reimer '24 5 1 1 3 15 19 9 2 1 12 1 1 2 2 74
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Sarah Young '25 3 11 8 4 6 12 7 8 5 2 4 3 8 8 89
Brown University Brown University Katharine Doble '26 2 9 3 2 19 5 5 9 13 1 6 8 5 7 94
Cornell University Cornell University Lucija Ruzevic '24 9 6 5 7 8 6 12 5 8 7 2 14 4 5 98
Cornell University Cornell University Lauren Ehnot '24 14 4 11 11 4 11 1 14 4 4 11 2 10 1 102
Brown University Brown University Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 16 10 9 10 10 3 11 3 2 9 5 5 14 10 117
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Heather Kerns '24 12 14 6 16 1 15 3 7 9 11 9 13 6 17 139
Georgetown University Georgetown University Piper Holthus '25 1 18 12 9 9 7 6 15 14 8 16 10 11 6 142
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Agija Elerte '26 17 5 13 6 2 10 14 11 11 6 12 11 17 13 148
McGill University McGill University Katherine Weaver '25 13 7 7 OCS 14 4 10 4 10 18 19 9 7 OCS 162
Stanford University Stanford University Grace Austin '24 6 16 16 8 12 8 16 13 12 15 14 7 9 11 163
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Emily Allen '25 8 15 17 15 11 13 15 6 15 10 7 12 16 12 172
Boston College Boston College Elizabeth Shanahan '23 15 12 10 18 18 9 17 12 7 13 8 18 12 9 178
Georgetown University Georgetown University Alexa Shea '26 7 19 15 12 7 14 8 17 16 14 17 16 19 15 196
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Claire Considine '23 18 13 14 13 17 18 13 10 17 17 10 17 13 14 204
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Madison Bashaw '24 11 8 18 14 16 16 18 18 18 19 18 15 18 18 225
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Emma Friedauer '26 10 17 19 17 13 17 19 16 19 16 15 19 15 16 228

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  19 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Sophia Montgomery '25Harvard University14/143.694.06+0.3893rd → 95th0.68%4.1 / 6.8
2Hallie Schiffman '23Stanford University Cardinal 214/143.553.61+0.0592nd → 92nd0.017%5.2 / 7.2
3Christine Reimer '24Bowdoin College14/142.813.41+0.6176th → 89th1.57%5.3 / 9.3
4Sarah Young '25Dartmouth College14/143.053.70+0.6583rd → 93rd2.017%6.4 / 8.5
5Katharine Doble '26Brown University Bears 114/143.173.25+0.0884th → 85th0.025%6.7 / 8.3
6Lucija Ruzevic '24Cornell University Big Red 114/143.123.48+0.3784th → 90th0.728%7.0 / 8.4
7Lauren Ehnot '24Cornell University Big Red 214/142.523.34+0.8265th → 89th3.211%7.3 / 10.1
8Kaitlyn Hamilton '26Brown University Bears 214/142.303.11+0.8259th → 84th3.214%8.4 / 10.8
9Heather Kerns '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges14/142.252.53+0.2859th → 65th0.434%9.9 / 10.8
10Piper Holthus '25Georgetown University Hoyas 114/142.732.56−0.1873rd → 67th0.264%10.1 / 9.4
11Agija Elerte '26Jacksonville University Fins 214/142.622.55−0.0869th → 66th0.062%10.6 / 9.9
12Katherine Weaver '25McGill University14/141.772.40+0.6343rd → 61st1.540%11.6 / 12.2
13Grace Austin '24Stanford University Cardinal 114/142.722.36−0.3672nd → 60th0.883%11.6 / 9.5
14Emily Allen '25Jacksonville University Fins 114/142.522.19−0.3265th → 58th0.683%12.3 / 10.1
15Elizabeth Shanahan '23Boston College14/142.271.91−0.3659th → 48th0.780%12.7 / 10.9
16Alexa Shea '26Georgetown University Hoyas 214/141.711.64−0.0743rd → 41st0.077%14.0 / 12.4
17Claire Considine '23University of Wisconsin14/141.731.80+0.0743rd → 44th0.081%14.6 / 12.2
18Madison Bashaw '24St. Mary's College of Maryland14/142.181.02−1.1657th → 23rd8.297%16.1 / 11.0
19Emma Friedauer '26Old Dominion University14/141.710.95−0.7642nd → 22nd2.995%16.3 / 12.4

Conditions — 11/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 12.7 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From SSE (159°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1023.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →