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NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Brown University Brown University Katharine Doble '26 3 5 1 1 8 1 9 28
Harvard University Harvard University Kate Danielson '28 4 2 2 6 2 11 3 30
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Sarah Young '25 2 1 6 3 4 10 7 33
Harvard University Harvard University Sophia Montgomery '25 6 3 3 10 6 5 1 34
Brown University Brown University Sidney Moyer '27 1 8 14 5 1 2 10 41
Yale University Yale University Audrey Foley '28 11 4 11 4 5 4 2 41
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Rebecca Schill '27 5 12 8 2 7 6 4 44
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Okyanus Arıkan '26 7 9 4 14 3 12 5 54
Connecticut College Connecticut College Natalie Fear '28 10 11 7 9 13 3 6 59
Tufts University Tufts University Maria Skouloudi '27 9 7 5 11 9 9 13 63
Brown University Brown University Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 8 6 12 7 10 14 8 65
Boston College Boston College Madeline Torrey '28 13 10 13 8 14 8 14 80
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Tavia Smith '27 14 14 10 12 12 7 11 80
Boston College Boston College Aiesha Shekhar '28 12 13 9 13 11 13 12 83

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  14 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Katharine Doble '26Brown University Bears 17/73.624.07+0.4492nd → 95th0.419%4.0 / 5.7
2Kate Danielson '28Harvard University Crimson 27/72.914.15+1.2479th → 97th3.17%4.3 / 7.0
3Sarah Young '25Dartmouth College7/73.583.89+0.3192nd → 94th0.232%4.7 / 5.7
4Sophia Montgomery '25Harvard University Crimson 17/73.693.79+0.1093rd → 94th0.042%4.9 / 5.4
5Audrey Foley '28Yale University7/73.233.26+0.0385th → 86th0.042%5.9 / 6.4
5Sidney Moyer '27Brown University Bears 27/72.742.92+0.1873rd → 79th0.122%5.9 / 7.5
7Rebecca Schill '27Bowdoin College7/72.503.22+0.7264th → 85th1.125%6.3 / 7.9
8Okyanus Arıkan '26University of Rhode Island7/73.412.33−1.0889th → 60th3.184%7.7 / 6.0
9Natalie Fear '28Connecticut College7/71.552.53+0.9739th → 66th2.126%8.4 / 9.8
10Maria Skouloudi '27Tufts University7/71.602.52+0.9240th → 65th1.938%9.0 / 9.6
11Kaitlyn Hamilton '26Brown University Bears 37/73.032.16−0.8783rd → 56th2.191%9.3 / 6.8
12Madeline Torrey '28Boston College Eagles 27/72.07u1.09−0.9853rd → 25th2.288%11.4 / 8.8
12Tavia Smith '27Roger Williams University7/72.071.22−0.8553rd → 29th1.789%11.4 / 8.8
14Aiesha Shekhar '28Boston College Eagles 17/71.55u1.73+0.1839th → 43rd0.185%11.9 / 9.7

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1024.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1024.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →