Stony Brook Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 24 14 38
2 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 28 23 51
3 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 40 33 73
4 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 46 38 84
5 American University American University Eagles 62 27 89
6 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 49 52 101
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 31 73 104
8 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 52 55 107
9 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 49 66 115
10 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 2 59 59 118
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 4 4 4 2 4 1 3 24 Jonathan Wittick '29 [1-8]
Campbell Carr '29 [1-5]
Payton Buckley '28 [6-8]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 2 2 2 1 10 9 1 28 Jeremy Lunati '27
Juliana Sarich '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 6 1 1 1 10 1 2 9 31 Kevin Ryan '29
Samuel Sicinski '29
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 3 3 8 9 3 5 3 6 40 Niall Powers Ozyurt '27 [1-7]
Tristan Feves '27 [8]
Nolan Thompson '28 [1-7]
Jack Ceriello '27 [8]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 5 7 7 3 6 8 5 5 46 Alexander Sau Hang Ching '28 [1-8]
Raina Jaeggli '28 [1-3, 7-8]
Jake Miller '27 [4-6]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 9 6 6 8 9 2 7 2 49 Amelka Cichy '28
Ava Mcnabb '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 10 10 3 6 5 3 8 4 49 Carson Totino '29
Blake Lockhart '29
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4 9 5 7 7 6 4 10 52 Jeffrey Rhoads '27
Amy Chen '27
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 2 8 8 10 5 8 7 6 7 59
American University American University Eagles 7 5 9 10 4 9 10 8 62 James Cottage '27
Ella Dentinger '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 1 2 4 1 1 2 1 14 Luke Ondrey '29
John Bender '29
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 2 1 5 8 3 1 2 23 Luke Barker '28 [1-3, 7-8]
Andrew Embry '28 [4-6]
Nicholas Cunha '27 [1-3, 7-8]
Kristofer Litwinko '28 [4-6]
American University American University Eagles 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 27 Miles White '29 [1-3]
Brooke Lorson '27 [4-8]
Tucker Johnson '29 [1-3]
Thomas Dalporto '28 [4-6]
Miles White '29 [7-8]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 3 7 5 3 4 2 3 6 33 Leander Ances '29 [1-6]
Oscar Mcmahan '28 [7]
Luke Saletta '28 [8]
Ty Mazzga '28 [1-8]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 4 4 7 1 6 6 6 4 38 Alexander Vincenti '26 [1-6]
Maxwell Read '27 [7-8]
Tobias Wever '28 [1-6]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 7 6 4 7 5 5 10 8 52 Alden Hughes '29
Dylan Weitzell '29
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 10 8 8 8 2 9 5 5 55 Ella Musso '26 [1-3]
Sophia Dimont '27 [4-6]
Cassandra Edwards '27 [7-8]
Sergei Ivanov '27 [1-3]
Ella Musso '26 [4-6]
Avery Connor '27 [7-8]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 2 6 9 6 6 7 10 8 7 59
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 8 5 9 9 10 7 9 9 66 Emily Amspacher '26 [1-8]
Peyton Loftis '28 [1-3, 7-8]
Jonah Fish '28 [4-6]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 10 73 Sean Warwick '28 [1-8]
Peter Mascilli '29 [1-3, 7-8]
Trey Rather '29 [4-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles11133355
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions22244466
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams33355577
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 188810101022
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 299911133
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers44466688
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks 16668881010
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks 277799911
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves55577799
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats10101022244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles22244466
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions33355577
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams44466688
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 199911133
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 210101022244
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers55577799
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks 177799911
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks 288810101022
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves6668881010
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats11133355
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University James Cottage '27 Ella Dentinger '26
Eagles Miles White '29 [1-3]
Brooke Lorson '27 [4-8]
Tucker Johnson '29 [1-3]
Thomas Dalporto '28 [4-6]
Miles White '29 [7-8]
Columbia University Columbia University Alexander Sau Hang Ching '28 [1-8] Raina Jaeggli '28 [1-3, 7-8]
Jake Miller '27 [4-6]
Lions Alexander Vincenti '26 [1-6]
Maxwell Read '27 [7-8]
Tobias Wever '28 [1-6]
Fordham University Fordham University Jonathan Wittick '29 [1-8] Campbell Carr '29 [1-5]
Payton Buckley '28 [6-8]
Rams Luke Ondrey '29 John Bender '29
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Jeremy Lunati '27 Juliana Sarich '28
Privateers Luke Barker '28 [1-3, 7-8]
Andrew Embry '28 [4-6]
Nicholas Cunha '27 [1-3, 7-8]
Kristofer Litwinko '28 [4-6]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Jeffrey Rhoads '27 Amy Chen '27
Seawolves Ella Musso '26 [1-3]
Sophia Dimont '27 [4-6]
Cassandra Edwards '27 [7-8]
Sergei Ivanov '27 [1-3]
Ella Musso '26 [4-6]
Avery Connor '27 [7-8]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Niall Powers Ozyurt '27 [1-7]
Tristan Feves '27 [8]
Nolan Thompson '28 [1-7]
Jack Ceriello '27 [8]
Ducks 1 Leander Ances '29 [1-6]
Oscar Mcmahan '28 [7]
Luke Saletta '28 [8]
Ty Mazzga '28 [1-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Carson Totino '29 Blake Lockhart '29
Mariners 1 Alden Hughes '29 Dylan Weitzell '29
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Kevin Ryan '29 Samuel Sicinski '29
Mariners 2 Sean Warwick '28 [1-8] Peter Mascilli '29 [1-3, 7-8]
Trey Rather '29 [4-6]
Villanova University Villanova University Amelka Cichy '28 Ava Mcnabb '28
Wildcats Emily Amspacher '26 [1-8] Peyton Loftis '28 [1-3, 7-8]
Jonah Fish '28 [4-6]

Conditions — 09/20/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1024.3 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From NE (47°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1024.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn · E 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.36 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →