Charles Invite — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W37). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 1,767 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

• ⁿ no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Shea Mcgrath '27	Bowdoin College	10/10	199	314	+115	77th → 92nd	5.0	2%	2.5 / 4.9	241
2	Bradley Kirkpatrick '29	Dartmouth College	10/10	178	250	+72	74th → 85th	2.3	11%	3.6 / 5.4	207
3	Caroline Straw '29	Harvard University Crimson 1	10/10	135	206	+72	66th → 78th	2.2	11%	3.9 / 6.6	150
4	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '29	Northeastern University	10/10	307	257	-50	92nd → 86th	1.1	92%	4.3 / 3.0	299
5	Henry Tuttle '30	University of Rhode Island	10/10	185	257	+72	75th → 86th	2.1	40%	4.7 / 5.4	221
6	Quinn Brighton '27	Brown University	10/10	159	143	-16	71st → 67th	0.2	53%	5.9 / 5.9	158
7	John O'Connell '28	Bentley University	10/10	46	89	+43	49th → 57th	1.0	26%	7.6 / 8.7	57
8	James Meyer '29	University of Vermont Catamounts 2	10/10	26	38	+11	45th → 47th	0.1	51%	9.1 / 9.1	29
9	James Bergstrom '27	Harvard University Crimson 2	10/10	24	-1	-25	45th → 40th	0.4	64%	9.8 / 9.2	22
9	Ziyue Zhou '27	McGill University	10/10	14	11	-3	43rd → 43rd	0.0	54%	9.8 / 9.5	14
11	Victor Kleppinger '29	University of Vermont Catamounts 1	10/10	22	-9	-32	44th → 39th	0.6	77%	10.8 / 9.2	20
12	Ryan Treat '27	University of Connecticut	10/10	-7	-40	-33	39th → 33rd	0.6	79%	11.2 / 10.0	-10
12	Sophia Hammond '30	Boston University	10/10	-15	-73	-59	38th → 26th	1.8	74%	11.2 / 10.2	-18
14	Ryan Rabbitt '29	University of New Hampshire	10/10	-73	-114	-41	26th → 18th	0.7	71%	12.5 / 11.3	-81
15	Gabe Synnott '28	Worcester Polytechnic Institute	6/10	-78n	-99	-21	25th → 21st	0.1	65%	12.7 / 11.2	-78
15	Patrick Flemming '30	Worcester Polytechnic Institute	4/10	-136n	-192	-57	15th → 6th	0.5	77%	14.2 / 12.1	-136

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Finn Cairns '29	Dartmouth College	10/10	208n	241	+34	78th → 83rd	0.5	31%	3.1 / 4.6	208
2	Alexander Van Doren '30	Brown University	10/10	170n	193	+23	72nd → 76th	0.3	37%	4.1 / 5.3	170
3	Matthew Bell '30	University of Rhode Island	10/10	145n	168	+23	68th → 72nd	0.3	42%	4.8 / 5.7	145
4	Pax Huybers '30	Harvard University Crimson 1	10/10	126n	145	+19	64th → 68th	0.2	40%	5.1 / 6.1	126
5	Noe Portelance '28	McGill University	10/10	99	132	+33	59th → 65th	0.6	31%	5.4 / 6.6	106
6	Nicholas Kennedy '30	Boston University	10/10	63n	72	+9	52nd → 54th	0.0	35%	6.1 / 7.4	63
7	Finn O'Connor '30	University of Vermont Catamounts 1	10/10	80n	92	+12	56th → 58th	0.1	52%	7.0 / 7.0	80
7	Grace Naylor '29	Harvard University Crimson 2	10/10	12	65	+53	43rd → 53rd	1.3	26%	7.0 / 8.4	23
9	Caroline O'Hara '29	Bowdoin College	10/10	63	62	-1	52nd → 52nd	0.0	53%	7.5 / 7.4	63
10	Peter Miller '29	Northeastern University	10/10	135	67	-68	66th → 53rd	3.1	90%	7.6 / 5.8	123
11	Owen Barry '30	University of Vermont Catamounts 2	10/10	1	18	+17	41st → 44th	0.1	54%	8.8 / 8.6	9
12	Mana Levin '28	University of New Hampshire	10/10	-129	-146	-17	16th → 13th	0.1	81%	12.8 / 11.3	-132
13	Owen Peterson '28	Worcester Polytechnic Institute	6/10	-64	-97	-34	28th → 22nd	0.3	82%	12.2 / 10.1	-73
13	Robert` Emken '29	Worcester Polytechnic Institute	4/10	-214n	-310	-96	4th → 1st	1.4	83%	14.2 / 12.4	-214
14	Walker Ryon '29	Bentley University	10/10	-200	-224	-25	5th → 3rd	0.2	81%	13.7 / 12.4	-204
15	Reid Famiglietti '28	University of Connecticut	10/10	-217n	-262	-45	3rd → 1st	0.6	83%	14.2 / 12.5	-217