H. B. Plant High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 (fleet 2.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 7–7 against 3.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-30 | SAISA District Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.98 | 3.48 | 7–7 | 3.9 | +1.50 | 2.7 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points 5 (2017) - Varsity | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 2.92 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 3.07 |
| SAISA South Points #3 (Varsity) | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 2.37 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points #7 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 3.71 |
| SAISA Districts/Mallory Elimination | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.6 | 0.44 |
| SAISA District Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SP 4 JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 2.39 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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