LP / ICSA Women's Singlehanded Nationals

Women's
HostSouthern Cal
Date11/02/2012
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Boston College	Erika Reineke '17	25
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mayumi Roller '13	79
3	Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	107
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	119
5	Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	124
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Christina Frost '16	134
7	University of South Florida	Abby Featherstone '13	143
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Lauren Cefali '15	144
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Catherine Shanahan '15	146
10	Yale University	Emily Billing '13	152
11	University of Washington	Lily Grimshaw '15	168
12	U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	182
13	Stanford University	Mckenzie Wilson '14	182
14	Stanford University	Rebecca King '13	230
15	University of Miami	Laura Hernandez '15	256
16	University of Minnesota	Alison Kent '16	283
17	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Margot Provensal '13	300
18	Tulane University	Alexandra Payne '15	304

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Boston College	Erika Reineke '17	1	1	1	5	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mayumi Roller '13	4	11	6	3	1	6	4	3	10	2	3	4	4	4	2	2	2	8	79
Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	3	9	11	8	6	11	2	2	6	4	6	7	2	3	4	13	3	7	107
U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	13	8	5	1	10	5	6	11	3	3	4	10	7	7	13	4	5	4	119
Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	2	7	3	7	9	2	12	8	8	6	8	5	14	10	6	8	6	3	124
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Christina Frost '16	6	10	8	10	3	9	5	4	13	13	2	11	6	5	3	3	12	11	134
University of South Florida	Abby Featherstone '13	7	4	2	4	11	4	11	16	7	8	9	2	12	14	11	5	14	2	143
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Lauren Cefali '15	5	5	4	2	8	1	10	10	2	14	10	13	11	11	7	6	16	9	144
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Catherine Shanahan '15	9	6	12	9	5	14	7	7	9	7	5	8	5	8	10	12	8	5	146
Yale University	Emily Billing '13	14	3	10	6	4	8	9	9	4	10	12	9	8	2	14	16	4	10	152
University of Washington	Lily Grimshaw '15	15	14	13	13	13	16	8	5	16	9	7	3	3	6	5	7	9	6	168
U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	10	13	9	11	7	7	3	13	11	5	11	14	13	12	12	9	10	12	182
Stanford University	Mckenzie Wilson '14	11	2	7	12	12	12	16	6	5	12	15	12	9	9	8	10	11	13	182
Stanford University	Rebecca King '13	16	15	18	15	14	13	13	14	12	11	13	6	10	15	9	11	7	18	230
University of Miami	Laura Hernandez '15	8	12	14	14	16	15	15	15	14	16	14	15	15	13	17	14	13	16	256
University of Minnesota	Alison Kent '16	18	16	15	17	15	10	17	12	17	17	16	16	17	17	15	18	15	15	283
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Margot Provensal '13	17	18	16	18	17	17	14	17	18	15	17	17	16	16	18	15	17	17	300
Tulane University	Alexandra Payne '15	12	17	17	16	18	18	18	18	15	18	18	18	18	18	16	17	18	14	304

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Erika Reineke '17	Boston College	18/18	3.31	6.64	+3.33	88th → 99th	29.1	<1%	1.4 / 5.9
2	Mayumi Roller '13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	18/18	2.64	3.65	+1.01	69th → 93rd	5.5	4%	4.4 / 7.6
3	Claire Dennis '13	Yale University Bulldogs	18/18	2.64	3.02	+0.37	70th → 83rd	0.9	21%	5.9 / 7.5
4	Mary Hall '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	18/18	2.60	2.81	+0.21	68th → 76th	0.3	31%	6.6 / 7.7
5	Nancy Hagood '14	Georgetown University	18/18	2.28	2.76	+0.48	59th → 73rd	1.5	21%	6.9 / 8.5
6	Christina Frost '16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	18/18	1.75	2.57	+0.82	43rd → 67th	4.0	11%	7.4 / 10.0
7	Abby Featherstone '13	University of South Florida	18/18	2.28	2.25	−0.03	59th → 59th	0.0	43%	7.9 / 8.5
8	Lauren Cefali '15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	18/18	1.81	2.32	+0.50	44th → 60th	1.6	27%	8.0 / 9.7
9	Catherine Shanahan '15	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	18/18	2.24	2.48	+0.24	59th → 62nd	0.4	41%	8.1 / 8.6
10	Emily Billing '13	Yale University Elis	18/18	2.47	2.20	−0.28	62nd → 58th	0.6	62%	8.4 / 8.0
11	Lily Grimshaw '15	University of Washington	18/18	1.43	1.90	+0.47	34th → 48th	1.4	28%	9.3 / 10.8
12	Marissa Lihan '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18/18	2.36	1.93	−0.42	60th → 50th	1.4	84%	10.1 / 8.3
12	Mckenzie Wilson '14	Stanford University Cardinal	18/18	1.13^u	1.89	+0.75	25th → 48th	3.5	29%	10.1 / 11.4
14	Rebecca King '13	Stanford University Red	18/18	1.12^u	1.03	−0.09	25th → 23rd	0.1	67%	12.8 / 11.6
15	Laura Hernandez '15	University of Miami	18/18	1.44	0.90	−0.54	35th → 21st	2.3	93%	14.2 / 10.7
16	Alison Kent '16	University of Minnesota	18/18	0.97	0.22	−0.75	22nd → 10th	4.1	97%	15.7 / 11.9
17	Margot Provensal '13	Texas A&M University at Galveston	18/18	1.00	-0.20	−1.20	22nd → 4th	10.3	>99%	16.7 / 11.8
18	Alexandra Payne '15	Tulane University	18/18	0.70	-0.92	−1.62	17th → 1st	13.1	99%	16.9 / 12.6

Conditions — 11/02/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 55°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 5.8 kn

Gusts to 12.8 kn

From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1014.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Southern Cal — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Southern Cal in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu