Radial Open

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/08/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mayumi Roller '13	52
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Catherine Shanahan '15	78
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	85
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	91
5	Hampton University	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	101
6	Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	108
7	Old Dominion University	Andrea Luna '15	115
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Kayla Mccomb '13	131
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	147
10	Georgetown University	Alexis Coudert '15	154
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Adele Huffine '14	174
12	Georgetown University	Madeline Higgins '16	184
13	Old Dominion University	Rachel Austin '14	185
14	Old Dominion University	Jaclyn Hollander '15	202
15	U. S. Naval Academy	Emma Ferris '15	208
16	Old Dominion University	Corina Radtke '14	212
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Liana Folger '15	224
18	St. John's College	Maryellen Markuske '15	280

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mayumi Roller '13	4	3	4	3	2	1	4	1	1	3	2	1	8	7	6	2	52
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Catherine Shanahan '15	2	1	2	2	1	3	9	2	2	10	12	3	10	4	5	10	78
U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	1	8	6	5	13	10	1	10	7	1	1	8	2	1	2	9	85
U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	8	2	1	1	3	2	10	3	4	2	13	7	15	6	7	7	91
Hampton University	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	5	4	8	4	6	5	3	4	5	8	7	5	4	8	11	14	101
Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	12	12	3	6	5	9	8	8	8	4	5	6	11	2	3	6	108
Old Dominion University	Andrea Luna '15	3	9	11	12	8	7	6	5	10	5	6	9	6	5	12	1	115
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Kayla Mccomb '13	13	7	5	7	7	14	12	12	15	7	8	2	7	3	8	4	131
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	11	5	7	10	11	8	5	6	6	6	4	11	14	14	17	12	147
Georgetown University	Alexis Coudert '15	17	6	10	8	4	4	2	7	3	18	10	16	5	15	16	13	154
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Adele Huffine '14	10	10	9	13	10	13	7	17	14	15	3	4	3	13	18	15	174
Georgetown University	Madeline Higgins '16	6	11	14	11	9	6	11	15	12	13	9	15	13	9	13	17	184
Old Dominion University	Rachel Austin '14	15	13	13	16	BKD	11	15	9	11	14	14	13	1	10	10	8	185
Old Dominion University	Jaclyn Hollander '15	16	17	15	14	12	12	14	11	9	12	11	12	17	16	9	5	202
U. S. Naval Academy	Emma Ferris '15	14	14	12	17	14	17	17	16	17	9	15	10	9	12	4	11	208
Old Dominion University	Corina Radtke '14	7	15	16	15	15	15	16	14	16	11	16	14	12	11	1	18	212
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Liana Folger '15	9	16	17	9	16	16	13	13	13	16	18	17	16	18	14	3	224
St. John's College	Maryellen Markuske '15	18	18	18	18	17	18	DNF	18	18	17	17	18	18	17	15	16	280

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 16 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Mayumi Roller '13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	16/16	2.46	3.96	+1.50	62nd → 95th	9.4	1%	3.2 / 7.1
2	Catherine Shanahan '15	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3	16/16	2.00	3.06	+1.06	52nd → 83rd	5.4	3%	4.9 / 8.3
3	Mary Hall '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	16/16	2.48	2.81	+0.33	62nd → 76th	0.6	19%	5.3 / 7.0
4	Marissa Lihan '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	16/16	2.19	2.69	+0.50	58th → 71st	1.3	15%	5.7 / 7.8
5	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	Hampton University	16/16	1.39	2.66	+1.27	34th → 71st	7.8	3%	6.3 / 10.0
6	Nancy Hagood '14	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	16/16	2.23	2.53	+0.30	58th → 66th	0.5	34%	6.8 / 7.7
7	Andrea Luna '15	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	16/16	1.80	2.39	+0.59	44th → 61st	2.0	20%	7.2 / 8.9
8	Kayla Mccomb '13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	16/16	2.32	1.99	−0.34	60th → 51st	0.7	64%	8.2 / 7.5
9	Brooke Lyon '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	16/16	1.73	1.73	−0.00	43rd → 43rd	0.0	55%	9.2 / 9.0
10	Alexis Coudert '15	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	16/16	1.11	1.18	+0.07	25th → 27th	0.0	35%	9.6 / 10.6
11	Adele Huffine '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	16/16	1.19	1.14	−0.05	28th → 25th	0.0	56%	10.9 / 10.5
12	Madeline Higgins '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	16/16	1.12	1.31	+0.19	25th → 30th	0.2	66%	11.5 / 10.7
13	Rachel Austin '14	Old Dominion University Big Blue	16/16	1.40	1.24	−0.17	34th → 29th	0.2	86%	12.0 / 9.9
14	Jaclyn Hollander '15	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	16/16	0.87	0.92	+0.05	20th → 21st	0.0	68%	12.6 / 11.3
15	Emma Ferris '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	16/16	0.98	0.64	−0.34	22nd → 17th	0.7	83%	13.0 / 11.0
16	Corina Radtke '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	16/16	1.65	0.59	−1.06	41st → 15th	8.3	98%	13.2 / 9.2
17	Liana Folger '15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	16/16	1.55	0.02	−1.52	39th → 6th	15.0	96%	14.0 / 9.5
18	Maryellen Markuske '15	St. John's College	16/16	-0.98	-1.40	−0.43	1st → 1st	0.4	97%	17.5 / 15.2

Conditions — 09/08/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1005.1 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 85°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.3 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 26.8 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1005.1 hPa Rain0.25 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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