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Salt Pond Invite — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2016-W38). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,559 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.
  • — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  18 boats · 9 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 Tufts University Jumbos 1 9/9 338* 350 +12 93rd → 94th 0.1 34% 3.6 / 4.6 338*
2 Walter Florio '18 Connecticut College 9/9 291* 332 +41 87th → 93rd 0.7 19% 3.8 / 5.7 291*
3 Quinn Andersen '18 Brown University 5/9 304* 393 +90 89th → 98th 1.7 16% 3.0 / 5.4 303*
3 Franco Bilik '18 Brown University 4/9 308* 270 -38 89th → 83rd 0.3 57% 5.2 / 5.3 309*
4 Christopher Keller '19 Tufts University Jumbos 2 9/9 298* 322 +24 88th → 91st 0.3 30% 4.2 / 5.5 299*
5 Alex Moreno '19 Boston University 5/9 290* 251 -40 86th → 79th 0.5 65% 6.4 / 5.8 291*
5 Robby Gearon '19 Boston University 4/9 298* 393 +95 88th → 98th 1.5 16% 3.0 / 5.4 300*
6 Sam Rush '19 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 5/9 256* 308 +52 80th → 89th 0.6 21% 4.4 / 6.6 256*
6 Collin Benzoni '20 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 4/9 138n* 180 +43 54th → 64th 0.3 65% 11.5 / 9.8 138*
7 Caelan Juckniess '20 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 9/9 206* 217 +11 70th → 73rd 0.1 46% 7.7 / 8.1 206*
8 Renee Torrie '18 McGill University 9/9 182* 173 -9 65th → 62nd 0.0 43% 8.1 / 8.7 182*
9 Kimberly Morecraft '18 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 9/9 204* 164 -39 70th → 60th 0.8 62% 8.7 / 8.0 206*
10 Nathaniel Barton '18 Wesleyan University 9/9 125* 175 +50 51st → 63rd 1.2 34% 9.3 / 10.4 126*
11 Noah Brayer '18 University of Massachusetts at Amherst 9/9 92* 121 +29 43rd → 50th 0.4 31% 10.1 / 11.3 92*
12 Jade Forsberg '17 Middlebury College 9/9 49* 75 +26 34th → 39th 0.3 54% 12.7 / 12.4 50*
14 Ian Rashleigh Mcnally '20 Bates College 9/9 47n* 56 +8 33rd → 35th 0.0 55% 12.9 / 12.1 47*
15 John Tersoni '17 Maine Maritime Academy 9/9 20* -10 -29 28th → 21st 0.4 73% 14.7 / 13.1 11*
16 David Tampellini '17 Sacred Heart University 9/9 -16* -78 -62 20th → 8th 1.5 64% 14.8 / 13.9 -17*
17 Isaac Bode '20 Fairfield University 5/9 -69n* -102 -33 9th → 5th 0.2 74% 16.8 / 14.6 -69*
17 Mitchell Owen '20 Fairfield University 4/9 -24* -20 +4 18th → 19th 0.0 57% 14.8 / 14.0 -24*
18 Nathaniel Thomas '18 Providence College 6/9 -52* 5 +57 13th → 24th 0.8 61% 15.5 / 14.6 -51*
18 Jackie Degeorgis '19 Providence College 3/9 -35* — — 16th → — 4.9 95% 17.7 / 14.3 -35*

Division B  18 boats · 9 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Carter Pemberton '20 Connecticut College 9/9 357* 497 +140 95th → 99th 4.8 3% 1.6 / 3.7 359*
2 Cameron Holley '19 Tufts University Jumbos 1 9/9 290* 385 +95 86th → 97th 3.2 7% 2.7 / 5.1 292*
3 Samuel Shea '19 Tufts University Jumbos 2 9/9 288* 280 -8 86th → 85th 0.0 42% 4.4 / 5.2 288*
3 Zachary Jordan '21 Brown University 9/9 234n* 284 +50 76th → 85th 1.1 30% 4.4 / 6.7 234*
5 Solomon Tarlin '17 Boston University 5/9 225* 264 +39 75th → 82nd 0.4 19% 4.6 / 6.8 225*
5 John Wetzel '20 Boston University 4/9 183* 174 -9 65th → 62nd 0.0 43% 6.8 / 7.6 189*
6 Christopher Pearson '20 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 9/9 206n* 240 +34 71st → 77th 0.6 38% 5.8 / 7.2 206*
7 Joe Menesale '20 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 9/9 197* 177 -20 69th → 63rd 0.2 49% 7.1 / 7.4 197*
8 Hannah Ker '18 McGill University 9/9 81* 130 +49 40th → 52nd 1.1 26% 8.8 / 10.5 82*
10 Benton Croop '18 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 5/9 93* 132 +38 43rd → 52nd 0.4 40% 9.6 / 10.4 100*
10 Ellie Mcglynn '18 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 4/9 45n* 0 -45 32nd → 23rd 0.5 57% 12.0 / 11.1 45*
11 Jack Gould '20 Maine Maritime Academy 9/9 111* 86 -25 48th → 42nd 0.4 68% 11.0 / 9.7 111*
12 Ben Arquit '20 Middlebury College 9/9 106n* 2 -104 46th → 24th 5.9 76% 12.3 / 9.7 106*
13 Matthew Fanelli '20 Fairfield University 4/9 -85* -234 -149 7th → 1st 2.4 96% 17.5 / 14.3 -85*
14 Joshua Linker '19 University of Massachusetts at Amherst 9/9 -59* 26 +85 12th → 28th 3.0 30% 12.9 / 13.9 -58*
15 Ross Richins '17 Bates College 9/9 15n* 6 -9 26th → 24th 0.0 73% 14.2 / 11.9 15*
16 Camille Britton '20 Wesleyan University 9/9 -48n* -54 -6 14th → 13th 0.0 67% 15.1 / 13.4 -48*
17 Kiley Burke '17 Emmanuel College 9/9 -67* -34 +33 10th → 17th 0.5 75% 15.7 / 14.0 -67*
17 John Burgess '20 Providence College 6/9 -19* -296 -276 20th → 1st 12.9 99% 17.5 / 13.2 -20*
17 Timothy Moore '19 Providence College 3/9 11n* 38 +27 25th → 31st 0.1 49% 12.0 / 11.9 11*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →