| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Lola Bushnell '18 | 37 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Lenox Butcher '20 | 48 |
| 3 |  |
George Washington University | Riley Legault '19 | 55 |
| 4 | |
Georgetown University | Carly Broussard '21 | 56 |
| 5 | |
Georgetown University | Haddon Hughes '19 | 56 |
| 6 | |
Georgetown University | Macey Mccann '20 | 60 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Jessica Mcjones '20 | 72 |
| 8 | |
Georgetown University | Rose Edwards '18 | 74 |
| 9 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Brittney Slook '20 | 91 |
| 10 |  |
Cornell University | Gillian Boehringer '18 | 97 |
| 11 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Ellie Ungar '19 | 98 |
| 12 |  |
Old Dominion University | Bridget Groble '22 | 108 |
| 13 | |
Cornell University | Gabby Rizika '20 | 111 |
| 14 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Jessica Lietz '20 | 112 |
| 15 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Gloria Kevliciute '21 | 145 |
| 16 | |
Cornell University | Patricia Corujo '21 | 157 |
| 17 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Kaitlyn Reilly '18 | 158 |
| 18 |  |
University of Virginia | Hannah Lothrop '21 | 175 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lola Bushnell '18 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 10/10 | 2.69 | 4.22 | +1.53 | 71st → 98th | 6.3 | 2% | 3.7 / 7.7 |
| 2 | Lenox Butcher '20 | University of Pennsylvania | 10/10 | 2.43 | 3.70 | +1.27 | 62nd → 93rd | 4.8 | 5% | 4.8 / 8.4 |
| 3 | Riley Legault '19 | George Washington University | 10/10 | 2.83 | 3.30 | +0.46 | 77th → 87th | 0.7 | 21% | 5.5 / 7.4 |
| 4 | Carly Broussard '21 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 10/10 | 2.51 | 3.43 | +0.93 | 64th → 89th | 2.8 | 11% | 5.6 / 8.3 |
| 4 | Haddon Hughes '19 | Georgetown University Hoyas 4 | 10/10 | 3.08 | 3.31 | +0.24 | 83rd → 88th | 0.2 | 31% | 5.6 / 6.7 |
| 6 | Macey Mccann '20 | Georgetown University Hoyas 5 | 10/10 | 2.19 | 3.24 | +1.06 | 57th → 85th | 3.5 | 14% | 6.0 / 9.1 |
| 7 | Jessica Mcjones '20 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 10/10 | 2.56 | 2.69 | +0.13 | 67th → 71st | 0.1 | 37% | 7.2 / 8.1 |
| 8 | Rose Edwards '18 | Georgetown University Hoyas 3 | 10/10 | 2.73 | 2.53 | −0.20 | 73rd → 66th | 0.2 | 48% | 7.4 / 7.6 |
| 9 | Brittney Slook '20 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 10/10 | 1.85 | 2.37 | +0.52 | 46th → 61st | 1.0 | 36% | 9.1 / 10.0 |
| 10 | Gillian Boehringer '18 | Cornell University Big Red 2 | 10/10 | 1.93 | 2.17 | +0.24 | 49th → 57th | 0.2 | 48% | 9.7 / 9.8 |
| 11 | Ellie Ungar '19 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 10/10 | 2.06 | 1.57 | −0.49 | 53rd → 39th | 0.9 | 57% | 9.8 / 9.5 |
| 12 | Bridget Groble '22 | Old Dominion University | 10/10 | 1.67 | 1.80 | +0.13 | 41st → 44th | 0.1 | 57% | 10.8 / 10.3 |
| 13 | Gabby Rizika '20 | Cornell University Big Red 1 | 10/10 | 2.36 | 1.75 | −0.61 | 61st → 43rd | 1.7 | 82% | 11.1 / 8.7 |
| 14 | Jessica Lietz '20 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 10/10 | 1.71 | 1.62 | −0.08 | 42nd → 40th | 0.0 | 60% | 11.2 / 10.5 |
| 15 | Gloria Kevliciute '21 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 10/10 | 1.83 | 0.63 | −1.21 | 46th → 17th | 6.2 | 95% | 14.5 / 10.1 |
| 16 | Patricia Corujo '21 | Cornell University Big Red 3 | 10/10 | 1.01 | 0.45 | −0.56 | 23rd → 13th | 1.2 | 93% | 15.7 / 12.2 |
| 17 | Kaitlyn Reilly '18 | Christopher Newport University | 10/10 | 0.76 | 0.22 | −0.54 | 18th → 10th | 1.0 | 92% | 15.8 / 12.6 |
| 18 | Hannah Lothrop '21 | University of Virginia | 10/10 | 0.19 | -0.75 | −0.94 | 9th → 1st | 2.3 | 99% | 17.5 / 14.0 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
