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Penobscot Bay Open

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 37
2 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 82
3 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 82
4 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 86
5 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 142
6 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 153
7 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 191
8 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3 200 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 2 1 3 3 4 4 1 18 Adrian Winkelman '25
Isabella Welch '25
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 7 3 2 2 1 2 2 19 Sam Monaghan '24
Emma Cole '25
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts A 1 4 10 1 2 3 5 26 Calvin Lamosse '25
Sam Thompson '24
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 B 5 7 6 5 5 1 8 37 Nalu Ho '24 [1-7]
Nicholas Paulu '25 [1-4]
Kylie Coxon '27 [5-7]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 8 2 4 11 6 7 3 41 Tyler Egeli '24
Logan O’Rourke '24
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1 A 3 6 5 8 8 6 9 45 Henri Richardsson '25
William Ries '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 6 9 1 4 10 5 10 45 Andy Leshaw '25
Celia Del Rosso '24
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts B 12 14 7 7 3 9 4 56 Gavin Sanborn '25
Will Broseman '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 11 13 8 6 7 8 6 59 Sam Harris '26
Abigail Forcier '25
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3 A 9 8 12 12 9 11 7 68 Griffen Horne '23
Joseph Zubelik '25
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 A 4 10 11 10 11 13 15 74 Ella Beauregard '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Hyde '25 [3-4, 7]
Amelia Griffith '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 B 10 5 9 13 14 14 14 79 Sarah Evans '27 [1-2, 5-7]
Anna Ladue '26 [3-4]
Margaret Archibald '26 [1-5]
Anna Ladue '26 [6-7]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 14 11 13 9 13 12 11 83 James Sullivan '25
Trixie Williams '26
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 13 12 16 14 12 10 13 90 Pierre Offredi '26
Hollister Rhone '24
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 15 15 14 15 15 15 12 101 Alex Anderson '26
Tristan Stevens '25
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3 B 16 16 15 16 16 16 DNF 132 MRP Isaac Thompson '27
Ryan Schumm '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 11122334
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 22233445
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 33344556
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers4455667
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds5566778
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats77889910
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies6677889
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts8899101011

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 1991010111112
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 210101111121213
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners 311111212131314
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers12121313141415
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds13131414151516
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats15151616112
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1414151516161
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts161611223

Conditions — 09/09/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1018.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Maine Maritime: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.40 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maine Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Maine Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →