Glen S. Foster Trophy

HostSouth Florida
Date11/09/2024
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Webb Institute	Daniel Escudero '25	57
2	Brown University	Guthrie Braun '26	70
3	Yale University	Mathias Reimer '27	74
4	Brown University	Martins Atilla '27	75
5	Stanford University	Chapman Petersen '26	92
6	College of Charleston	Benjamin Dufour '26	96
7	Georgetown University	Peter Barnard '27	96
8	Harvard University	Robby Meek '27	102
9	College of Charleston	Will Rucker '28	131
10	California Maritime Academy	Nicholas Mueller '27	132
11	Tulane University	Matheo Graham-Capasso '26	141
12	Georgetown University	Benjamin Smith '26	142
13	Brown University	Julian Dahiya '28	147
14	Jacksonville University	Morgan Smith '27	151
15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Charlie Anderson '25	159
16	Bowdoin College	Michelangelo Vecchio '27	161
17	College of Charleston	Eliott Raison '26	179
18	University of Chicago	Max Zhalilo '26	219

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT
Webb Institute	Daniel Escudero '25	1	16	7	3	5	1	1	4	3	2	4	1	9	57
Brown University	Guthrie Braun '26	2	2	6	1	13	8	7	11	4	4	5	4	3	70
Yale University	Mathias Reimer '27	15	4	2	9	10	4	3	2	2	3	1	13	6	74
Brown University	Martins Atilla '27	4	3	1	2	1	5	8	7	10	11	12	7	4	75
Stanford University	Chapman Petersen '26	12	15	15	10	4	10	6	1	1	1	7	3	7	92
College of Charleston	Benjamin Dufour '26	5	7	3	6	2	11	5	12	16	9	10	2	8	96
Georgetown University	Peter Barnard '27	13	5	11	4	6	2	2	14	12	5	3	5	14	96
Harvard University	Robby Meek '27	3	8	8	7	12	3	9	6	6	8	8	12	12	102
College of Charleston	Will Rucker '28	10	13	9	5	9	12	13	10	5	12	14	6	13	131
California Maritime Academy	Nicholas Mueller '27	7	14	13	12	14	6	4	16	9	14	9	9	5	132
Tulane University	Matheo Graham-Capasso '26	14	9	17	8	8	17	11	8	8	6	17	17	1	141
Georgetown University	Benjamin Smith '26	11	11	12	14	15	7	15	9	7	7	6	10	18	142
Brown University	Julian Dahiya '28	9	1	4	16	3	9	16	18	11	17	18	8	17	147
Jacksonville University	Morgan Smith '27	17	10	16	11	16	13	17	3	14	15	2	15	2	151
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Charlie Anderson '25	8	6	14	13	17	15	12	5	15	10	15	14	15	159
Bowdoin College	Michelangelo Vecchio '27	6	18	10	15	11	14	10	13	13	13	16	11	11	161
College of Charleston	Eliott Raison '26	16	12	5	17	7	DSQ	14	17	17	16	13	16	10	179
University of Chicago	Max Zhalilo '26	18	17	18	18	18	16	18	15	18	18	11	18	16	219

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 13 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Daniel Escudero '25	Webb Institute	13/13	3.42	5.09	+1.68	89th → 99th	9.5	1%	4.4 / 9.4
2	Guthrie Braun '26	Brown University Bears 1	13/13	4.02	4.80	+0.78	95th → 99th	2.6	11%	5.4 / 7.9
3	Mathias Reimer '27	Yale University	13/13	3.71	4.53	+0.82	93rd → 99th	2.8	8%	5.7 / 8.7
4	Martins Atilla '27	Brown University Bears 3	13/13	3.56	4.64	+1.09	92nd → 99th	4.7	11%	5.8 / 9.1
5	Chapman Petersen '26	Stanford University	13/13	4.46	4.01	−0.46	99th → 95th	1.1	62%	7.1 / 6.7
6	Benjamin Dufour '26	College of Charleston Cougars 2	13/13	3.90	4.05	+0.15	94th → 95th	0.1	38%	7.4 / 8.2
6	Peter Barnard '27	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	13/13	4.06	4.06	−0.00	95th → 95th	0.0	48%	7.4 / 7.7
8	Robby Meek '27	Harvard University	13/13	4.46	4.08	−0.38	99th → 95th	0.8	73%	7.8 / 6.7
9	Will Rucker '28	College of Charleston Cougars 1	13/13	3.17	3.61	+0.44	84th → 92nd	0.9	50%	10.1 / 10.1
10	Nicholas Mueller '27	California Maritime Academy	13/13	3.76	3.45	−0.31	93rd → 89th	0.5	78%	10.2 / 8.6
11	Matheo Graham-Capasso '26	Tulane University	13/13	2.62	2.78	+0.16	69th → 75th	0.1	36%	10.8 / 11.6
12	Benjamin Smith '26	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	13/13	3.45	3.14	−0.31	89th → 84th	0.5	77%	10.9 / 9.4
13	Julian Dahiya '28	Brown University Bears 2	13/13	2.69	2.49	−0.20	71st → 63rd	0.2	48%	11.3 / 11.4
14	Morgan Smith '27	Jacksonville University	13/13	2.77	2.77	+0.01	74th → 74th	0.0	55%	11.6 / 11.3
15	Charlie Anderson '25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	13/13	3.27	2.88	−0.39	86th → 78th	0.8	87%	12.2 / 9.9
16	Michelangelo Vecchio '27	Bowdoin College	13/13	3.09	2.87	−0.22	83rd → 78th	0.2	79%	12.4 / 10.3
17	Eliott Raison '26	College of Charleston Cougars 3	13/13	2.85	2.47	−0.37	78th → 62nd	0.7	87%	13.8 / 10.9
18	Max Zhalilo '26	University of Chicago	13/13	1.93	0.64	−1.29	49th → 17th	4.9	97%	16.8 / 13.2

Conditions — 11/09/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

79°F

↑ 83°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.0 kn

avg · max 11.7 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From E (82°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1016.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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