Janet Lutz Trophy

Women's
HostSouth Florida
Date11/09/2024
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Harvard University	Sophia Montgomery '25	49
2	Cornell University	Gilda Dondona '28	57
3	Harvard University	Kate Danielson '28	82
4	University of Rhode Island	Okyanus Arıkan '26	82
5	Dartmouth College	Sarah Young '25	86
6	Brown University	Katharine Doble '26	86
7	College of Charleston	Isabella Mendoza Cabezas '28	87
8	Georgetown University	Piper Holthus '25	94
9	Yale University	Audrey Foley '28	102
10	Brown University	Sidney Moyer '27	104
11	Tulane University	Ava Anderson '27	107
12	Jacksonville University	Agija Elerte '26	117
13	University of South Florida	Eden Nykamp '25	125
14	Bowdoin College	Rebecca Schill '27	140
15	Jacksonville University	Emily Allen '25	157
16	Cornell University	Pilar Cundey '27	177
17	University of Hawaii	Martha Schuessler '27	179
18	University of Michigan	Katherine Simcoe '26	210

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Harvard University	Sophia Montgomery '25	7	1	7	3	5	1	7	4	7	2	2	3	49
Cornell University	Gilda Dondona '28	1	5	5	1	8	3	3	9	6	8	7	1	57
Harvard University	Kate Danielson '28	2	4	1	6	7	14	2	8	13	7	10	8	82
University of Rhode Island	Okyanus Arıkan '26	15	8	13	13	3	7	4	3	3	5	1	BKD	82
Dartmouth College	Sarah Young '25	5	10	9	10	16	2	5	6	5	4	5	9	86
Brown University	Katharine Doble '26	12	6	3	8	4	4	9	5	9	9	4	13	86
College of Charleston	Isabella Mendoza Cabezas '28	11	14	15	7	6	10	13	1	1	1	3	5	87
Georgetown University	Piper Holthus '25	3	2	6	2	11	9	1	12	16	15	13	4	94
Yale University	Audrey Foley '28	17	13	11	15	1	5	8	10	8	3	9	2	102
Brown University	Sidney Moyer '27	4	3	4	11	13	12	15	7	12	11	6	6	104
Tulane University	Ava Anderson '27	6	9	14	4	12	6	11	2	10	6	11	16	107
Jacksonville University	Agija Elerte '26	8	7	2	18	10	11	12	11	2	12	14	10	117
University of South Florida	Eden Nykamp '25	9	11	12	9	2	8	6	15	15	16	15	7	125
Bowdoin College	Rebecca Schill '27	14	15	8	5	14	13	14	13	4	17	8	15	140
Jacksonville University	Emily Allen '25	10	17	10	12	15	15	10	16	11	10	17	14	157
Cornell University	Pilar Cundey '27	13	16	17	14	18	16	17	14	14	14	12	12	177
University of Hawaii	Martha Schuessler '27	18	12	16	16	9	18	16	17	17	13	16	11	179
University of Michigan	Katherine Simcoe '26	16	18	18	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	17	210

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Sophia Montgomery '25	Harvard University Crimson 2	12/12	4.18	4.90	+0.72	97th → 99th	2.0	13%	4.1 / 6.2
2	Gilda Dondona '28	Cornell University Big Red 1	12/12	4.09	4.55	+0.46	96th → 99th	0.9	26%	4.8 / 6.5
3	Kate Danielson '28	Harvard University Crimson 1	12/12	2.99	3.69	+0.70	81st → 93rd	1.9	13%	6.8 / 9.3
4	Katharine Doble '26	Brown University Bears 1	12/12	3.65	3.71	+0.06	93rd → 93rd	0.0	45%	7.2 / 7.5
4	Sarah Young '25	Dartmouth College	12/12	3.59	3.60	+0.00	92nd → 92nd	0.0	44%	7.2 / 7.7
6	Isabella Mendoza Cabezas '28	College of Charleston	12/12	2.88^u	3.45	+0.57	78th → 89th	1.3	20%	7.2 / 9.5
7	Okyanus Arıkan '26	University of Rhode Island	12/12	3.41	3.63	+0.22	89th → 92nd	0.2	46%	7.8 / 8.1
7	Piper Holthus '25	Georgetown University	12/12	2.98	3.15	+0.17	81st → 84th	0.1	27%	7.8 / 9.2
9	Audrey Foley '28	Yale University	12/12	3.30	3.04	−0.26	87th → 83rd	0.3	54%	8.5 / 8.4
10	Sidney Moyer '27	Brown University Bears 2	12/12	2.76	3.23	+0.47	73rd → 85th	0.9	27%	8.7 / 10.0
11	Ava Anderson '27	Tulane University	12/12	3.56	3.02	−0.54	92nd → 83rd	1.4	72%	8.9 / 7.8
12	Agija Elerte '26	Jacksonville University Fins 2	12/12	2.59	2.72	+0.13	68th → 72nd	0.1	40%	9.8 / 10.3
13	Eden Nykamp '25	University of South Florida	12/12	2.78	2.67	−0.11	74th → 71st	0.1	62%	10.4 / 9.8
14	Rebecca Schill '27	Bowdoin College	12/12	2.50	2.40	−0.11	64th → 61st	0.1	65%	11.7 / 10.6
15	Emily Allen '25	Jacksonville University Fins 1	12/12	2.36	1.99	−0.37	61st → 52nd	0.6	83%	13.1 / 11.0
16	Pilar Cundey '27	Cornell University Big Red 2	12/12	2.14	1.49	−0.65	56th → 38th	1.9	91%	14.8 / 11.5
17	Martha Schuessler '27	University of Hawaii	12/12	1.72	1.25	−0.47	43rd → 29th	0.9	85%	14.9 / 12.4
18	Katherine Simcoe '26	University of Michigan	12/12	0.43	-0.29	−0.73	13th → 4th	1.1	96%	17.5 / 15.1

Conditions — 11/09/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

79°F

↑ 83°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.0 kn

avg · max 11.7 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From E (82°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1016.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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