Open Atlantic Coast Tournament Finals — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W43). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,062 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Keith Grupenhoff '29	University of Rhode Island	10/10	377	434	+57	95th → 98th	1.6	12%	4.2 / 6.3	379
2	Pj Rodrigues '28	Eckerd College	10/10	353	400	+47	93rd → 97th	1.2	21%	5.4 / 7.0	354
3	Hank Seum '27	Jacksonville University	10/10	364	369	+5	94th → 95th	0.0	29%	5.7 / 6.8	364
4	Jj Klempen '27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10/10	353	379	+26	93rd → 96th	0.4	37%	6.3 / 7.0	354
5	Jacob Zils '27	Fordham University	10/10	357	326	-31	94th → 91st	0.6	56%	7.1 / 7.0	357
6	Lorenzo Puertas '29	University of Michigan	10/10	332	346	+14	92nd → 93rd	0.1	49%	7.5 / 7.7	332
7	Finn Deprez '29	Maine Maritime Academy	10/10	290	304	+14	86th → 89th	0.1	27%	7.8 / 9.0	291
8	Aston Smith '28	University of California at Santa Barbara	10/10	292	279	-13	87th → 85th	0.1	34%	8.0 / 8.9	292
9	Leland Sokolowski '30	University of South Florida	10/10	279	316	+37	85th → 90th	0.8	39%	8.7 / 9.4	279
10	William Hurd '27	Connecticut College	10/10	360	308	-52	94th → 89th	1.8	85%	8.9 / 6.9	358
11	Pierce Brindley '28	Old Dominion University	10/10	291	288	-3	87th → 86th	0.0	59%	9.3 / 8.9	291
12	Reed Mcallister '27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	10/10	299	292	-7	88th → 87th	0.0	67%	9.5 / 8.7	299
13	Rhett Krawitt '30	George Washington University	10/10	258	253	-6	83rd → 82nd	0.0	44%	9.7 / 10.0	258
14	Noah Nyenhuis '27	San Diego State University	10/10	312	256	-55	90th → 82nd	2.0	89%	10.8 / 8.3	311
15	William Styslinger '28	University of Wisconsin	10/10	190	181	-9	72nd → 70th	0.0	72%	13.2 / 12.0	190
16	Berend Vandermeer '27	Christopher Newport University	10/10	73	94	+21	49th → 54th	0.2	64%	15.3 / 14.5	73
17	Jackson Fisher '30	Webb Institute	10/10	81	96	+15	51st → 55th	0.1	78%	15.6 / 14.5	81

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Christopher Chwalk '28	University of Rhode Island	10/10	338	431	+93	92nd → 98th	3.8	4%	3.5 / 6.3	340
2	James Kopack '28	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10/10	326	397	+71	91st → 97th	2.4	7%	4.1 / 6.6	327
3	Jordan Vieira '28	Eckerd College	10/10	307	374	+67	89th → 95th	2.0	6%	4.4 / 7.2	308
4	Patrick Shachoy '28	Fordham University	10/10	351	386	+35	93rd → 96th	0.6	21%	4.5 / 5.9	352
5	Cole Schweda '27	Jacksonville University	10/10	315	359	+44	90th → 94th	1.0	14%	5.0 / 7.0	316
6	Marina Conde '28	Old Dominion University	10/10	311	312	+1	90th → 90th	0.0	38%	6.5 / 7.2	311
7	Henry Scholz '27	Connecticut College	10/10	365	306	-59	94th → 89th	2.4	82%	7.0 / 5.6	364
8	Toby Clarkson '29	Maine Maritime Academy	10/10	293	301	+8	87th → 88th	0.0	46%	7.3 / 7.6	293
9	Benjamin Foox '28	University of California at Santa Barbara	10/10	228	270	+42	78th → 84th	1.0	38%	8.7 / 9.6	228
10	Zach Peterson '30	San Diego State University	10/10	244	231	-14	81st → 79th	0.1	60%	9.7 / 9.1	244
11	Langdon Wallace '27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	10/10	214	232	+18	76th → 79th	0.2	57%	10.4 / 10.1	214
12	Thomas Svencer '30	University of Wisconsin	10/10	220	233	+13	77th → 79th	0.1	68%	10.8 / 9.9	220
13	Sara Menesale '28	University of South Florida	10/10	221	199	-22	77th → 73rd	0.3	78%	11.4 / 9.9	220
14	Graham Rebain '29	University of Michigan	6/10	216	124	-93	76th → 60th	3.2	94%	13.3 / 10.1	216
14	Brendan Wojkowski '29	University of Michigan	4/10	122	47	-75	60th → 44th	1.3	93%	15.5 / 12.4	122
15	Frank Wildi '29	George Washington University	6/10	134	141	+7	62nd → 63rd	0.0	77%	14.0 / 12.4	135
15	Austin Budd '30	George Washington University	4/10	103	-2	-104	56th → 35th	1.6	73%	14.8 / 12.9	102
16	Marc Leyk '28	Webb Institute	10/10	129	46	-83	61st → 44th	3.3	95%	15.0 / 12.4	128
17	Jonathan Matney '27	Christopher Newport University	10/10	7	8	+2	37th → 37th	0.0	81%	16.2 / 14.9	7