Savin Hill Invite — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W42). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,060 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Charles Gish '28	Brown University	8/8	369	441	+72	95th → 99th	1.7	10%	2.6 / 4.6	370
2	Oliver Holt '30	Boston College Eagles 2	8/8	293	395	+103	86th → 97th	3.5	4%	3.4 / 6.7	294
3	Brayden Benesch '28	Tufts University	8/8	302	353	+51	88th → 93rd	1.1	21%	4.8 / 6.4	303
4	Buck Rathbun '28	Boston University	8/8	216	329	+113	76th → 91st	4.6	4%	5.5 / 9.0	217
5	Noah Reischmann '29	Bowdoin College	8/8	249	264	+15	81st → 83rd	0.1	43%	7.5 / 8.0	249
6	Jack Schneider '29	Salve Regina University	8/8	271	257	-15	84th → 81st	0.1	58%	7.6 / 7.3	271
7	Will Bryant '29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8/8	268	220	-48	83rd → 76th	1.0	62%	8.0 / 7.4	268
8	Granger Osborne '30	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	4/8	161	372	+211	66th → 95th	6.5	1%	4.5 / 10.6	162
8	Oscar Gilroy '27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	4/8	90	120	+30	52nd → 59th	0.1	42%	12.0 / 12.3	91
9	Henry Tuttle '30	University of Rhode Island	8/8	255	244	-10	81st → 80th	0.1	68%	8.6 / 7.7	254
9	Justinas Petkauskas '30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8/8	182	241	+59	69th → 79th	1.4	31%	8.6 / 9.9	183
11	Michael Sentovich '30	Boston College Eagles 1	8/8	299	212	-87	87th → 75th	4.1	89%	8.8 / 6.5	297
12	Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia '30	Fordham University	8/8	262	225	-37	82nd → 77th	0.7	85%	9.6 / 7.6	261
13	Jake Demos '27	Connecticut College Camels 1	8/8	190	152	-38	71st → 64th	0.7	85%	11.9 / 9.7	189
14	Ryan Begin '27	University of Vermont Catamounts 1	8/8	170	136	-34	67th → 62nd	0.5	91%	13.0 / 10.4	169
15	William Layton '29	University of Vermont Catamounts 2	8/8	117	108	-9	58th → 56th	0.0	76%	13.4 / 11.7	117
16	Joseph Whelan '29	Connecticut College Camels 2	8/8	116	54	-62	58th → 45th	1.4	91%	14.5 / 11.6	116

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Julian Dahiya '28	Brown University	8/8	353	418	+65	93rd → 98th	1.3	12%	2.4 / 4.1	354
2	Glen Foster '30	Boston College Eagles 2	8/8	285	328	+43	86th → 91st	0.7	15%	3.8 / 5.7	293
2	Teddy Bower '30	Tufts University	8/8	302	338	+36	88th → 92nd	0.5	22%	3.8 / 5.1	303
4	Matthew Commons '29	Boston College Eagles 1	8/8	240	319	+79	79th → 90th	2.3	9%	4.2 / 6.9	277
5	Kevin Ryan '29	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	8/8	151	275	+124	64th → 84th	5.3	3%	5.6 / 9.5	152
6	Joey Richardson '28	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8/8	243	260	+17	80th → 82nd	0.1	36%	6.0 / 6.8	244
7	Galen Nourjian '30	Fordham University	8/8	215	210	-4	75th → 74th	0.0	41%	6.9 / 7.6	215
8	Hannah Beaver '29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8/8	158	183	+25	65th → 69th	0.3	42%	8.8 / 9.3	166
9	Graham Welsh '29	Boston University	4/8	163	205	+42	66th → 74th	0.4	25%	7.2 / 9.1	163
9	Lydia Carscaddon '30	Boston University	4/8	121	47	-74	59th → 44th	1.3	89%	13.2 / 10.3	121
10	Matthew Bell '30	University of Rhode Island	8/8	149	133	-16	64th → 61st	0.1	68%	10.6 / 9.5	149
11	Jeremiah Mccarthy '30	Connecticut College Camels 2	8/8	102	97	-5	55th → 54th	0.0	61%	11.5 / 10.9	102
11	Charlie Conover '29	Bowdoin College	4/8	180	190	+11	69th → 71st	0.0	53%	8.8 / 8.6	180
11	Owen Warren '28	Bowdoin College	4/8	136	-17	-153	62nd → 30th	4.4	97%	14.2 / 9.9	135
13	Wyatt Tauber '29	Connecticut College Camels 1	8/8	178	122	-57	68th → 59th	1.9	94%	11.9 / 8.7	178
14	Sean Morrison '27	Salve Regina University	8/8	135	87	-48	61st → 52nd	1.1	89%	12.2 / 10.0	134
15	Finn O'Connor '30	University of Vermont Catamounts 1	8/8	117	66	-52	58th → 47th	1.3	87%	13.0 / 10.3	117
16	Maggie Rosow '30	University of Vermont Catamounts 2	8/8	22	46	+24	38th → 44th	0.2	64%	13.6 / 12.8	23