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O’Toole Saturday FR

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 7 7 14
2 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 13 14 27
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 20 9 29
4 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 10 23 33
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 13 30 43
6 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 30 13 43
7 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 28 22 50
8 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 27 31 58
9 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 32 38 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 1 1 2 7 Grant Adam '23
Spencer Dellenbaugh '23
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 4 3 2 1 10 Cooper Smith '27
Jack Taylor '27
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 1 2 6 4 13 Tyler Egeli '24
Luke Dubois '26
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 4 4 3 13 Tiare Sierra '25
Rufus Burnes Heath '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 5 5 3 7 20 Adam Strobridge '26
Jane Lally '25
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 7 9 5 6 27 Mikhail Lavrenov '26
Nicholas Belev '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 6 6 7 9 28 Caleb Burt '25
Joseph Gedraitis '27
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 9 8 8 5 30 Wilson Kaznoski '24
John Ambery '25
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 8 7 9 8 32 Nat Edmonds '24
Rufus Fender-Reid '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 1 2 3 7 Keller Morrison '25
Lucian Sharpe '24
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 5 2 1 1 9 Max Sigel '26
Miles Silverman '27
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 2 3 4 4 13 Nolan Cooper '25
Nicholas Pisani '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 4 5 3 2 14 John Van Zanten '25
Oliver Browne '27
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 3 6 7 6 22 John Divelbiss '24
Celia Del Rosso '24
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 9 4 5 5 23 Ryan Begin '27 [1-2]
Ella Towner '27 [3-4]
Tyler Davis '27 [1-2]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 7 DNF 6 7 30 Danielle Bogacheva '27
Ada Ucar '27
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 6 7 DNF 8 31 Ziyue Zhou '27
Tristan Stevens '25
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 8 DNF DNS DNS 38 Adrian Whitney '26
Yunwen Xu '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.260+0.26
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (26 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths1133
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2244
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears3355
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags4466
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 15577
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 26688
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds7799
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams8811
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts9922

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths2244
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers3355
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears4466
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags5577
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 16688
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 27799
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds8811
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams9922
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1133

Conditions — 03/23/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 89%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.3 kn
avg  ·  max 18.0 kn
Gusts to 33.4 kn
From SSE (150°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1014.1 hPa Rain0.65 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mass Maritime: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.28 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →