Phoebus High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.37 (fleet 2.23) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–15 (44%) as crew 1–3 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 3 | 7–7 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 3–3 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 1–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 13–18 against 15.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-12 | VISA NCS Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.99 | 0.65 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2019-10-10 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series Three | skipper | 1.14 | 0.43 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.71 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2019-09-18 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series 1 | skipper | 0.97 | 3.97 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 6% |
| 2019-03-28 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series 1 | skipper | 0.81 | -0.88 | 3–3 | 4.6 | −1.68 | 1.6 | 98% |
| 2018-10-13 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.58 | -0.64 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −1.22 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2018-04-19 | VISA Team Race Chmpionship | crew | 0.12 | -0.91 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −1.03 | 0.3 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA HRA Fleet Race Regatta (Team 1) | Crew | B | 5 | 10.2 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA HCS Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | B | 4 | 10.8 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Megan Geith |  Old Dominion University |
'24 |
| ISSA | Megan Geith |  Kecoughtan High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Megan Geith |  Hampton High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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