| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Arielle Delisser '14 | 57 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Marissa Lihan '14 | 75 |
| 3 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Mary Hall '15 | 84 |
| 4 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Brooke Lyon '14 | 92 |
| 5 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Catherine Shanahan '15 | 94 |
| 6 |  |
Hampton University | Giuditta Di Laghi '16 | 98 |
| 7 |  |
Old Dominion University | Andrea Luna '15 | 112 |
| 8 |  |
Georgetown University | Nancy Hagood '14 | 134 |
| 9 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Emma Ferris '15 | 150 |
| 10 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Hannah Hughes '17 | 158 |
| 11 | |
Georgetown University | Merritt Moran '14 | 162 |
| 12 | |
Old Dominion University | Corina Radtke '14 | 168 |
| 13 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Liana Folger '15 | 170 |
| 14 |  |
Cornell University | Quinn Howes '16 | 181 |
| 15 | |
Georgetown University | Madeline Higgins '16 | 208 |
| 16 |  |
St. John's College | Maryellen Markuske '15 | 239 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Arielle Delisser '14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 57 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Marissa Lihan '14 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 75 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Mary Hall '15 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 84 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Brooke Lyon '14 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 92 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Catherine Shanahan '15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 94 |
|
Hampton University | Giuditta Di Laghi '16 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 98 |
|
Old Dominion University | Andrea Luna '15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 112 |
|
Georgetown University | Nancy Hagood '14 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 134 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Emma Ferris '15 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 150 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Hannah Hughes '17 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 158 |
|
Georgetown University | Merritt Moran '14 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 162 |
|
Old Dominion University | Corina Radtke '14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 168 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Liana Folger '15 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 170 |
|
Cornell University | Quinn Howes '16 | 13 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 181 |
|
Georgetown University | Madeline Higgins '16 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 2 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNS | 208 |
|
St. John's College | Maryellen Markuske '15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 239 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arielle Delisser '14 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons | 16/16 | 2.52 | 3.76 | +1.24 | 65th → 93rd | 6.8 | 2% | 3.6 / 6.7 |
| 2 | Marissa Lihan '14 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 16/16 | 2.37 | 3.19 | +0.82 | 61st → 85th | 3.4 | 9% | 4.7 / 7.0 |
| 3 | Mary Hall '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 16/16 | 2.89 | 2.77 | −0.13 | 78th → 74th | 0.1 | 39% | 5.2 / 5.8 |
| 4 | Brooke Lyon '14 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 16/16 | 1.90 | 2.66 | +0.76 | 48th → 70th | 2.9 | 9% | 5.8 / 8.2 |
| 5 | Catherine Shanahan '15 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 16/16 | 2.26 | 2.68 | +0.43 | 59th → 71st | 1.0 | 23% | 5.9 / 7.3 |
| 6 | Giuditta Di Laghi '16 | Hampton University | 16/16 | 1.65 | 2.74 | +1.09 | 41st → 73rd | 5.9 | 7% | 6.1 / 8.8 |
| 7 | Andrea Luna '15 | Old Dominion University Big Blue | 16/16 | 2.05 | 2.21 | +0.16 | 53rd → 58th | 0.1 | 33% | 7.0 / 7.8 |
| 8 | Nancy Hagood '14 | Georgetown University Hoyas 3 | 16/16 | 2.45 | 1.60 | −0.86 | 62nd → 40th | 4.8 | 81% | 8.4 / 6.8 |
| 9 | Emma Ferris '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 16/16 | 1.35 | 1.47 | +0.11 | 32nd → 37th | 0.1 | 47% | 9.4 / 9.5 |
| 10 | Hannah Hughes '17 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 | 16/16 | 1.61 | 1.40 | −0.21 | 40th → 34th | 0.3 | 71% | 9.9 / 8.9 |
| 11 | Merritt Moran '14 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 16/16 | 1.77 | 1.41 | −0.36 | 43rd → 34th | 0.8 | 77% | 10.1 / 8.5 |
| 12 | Corina Radtke '14 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 16/16 | 1.80 | 1.14 | −0.66 | 44th → 25th | 2.8 | 88% | 10.5 / 8.4 |
| 13 | Liana Folger '15 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 16/16 | 1.58 | 1.00 | −0.58 | 39th → 22nd | 2.0 | 77% | 10.6 / 9.0 |
| 14 | Quinn Howes '16 | Cornell University | 16/16 | 1.27 | 0.98 | −0.30 | 30th → 22nd | 0.5 | 78% | 11.3 / 9.6 |
| 15 | Madeline Higgins '16 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 16/16 | 1.12 | 0.81 | −0.31 | 25th → 18th | 0.3 | 97% | 13.0 / 10.1 |
| 16 | Maryellen Markuske '15 | St. John's College | 16/16 | -0.90 | -0.86 | +0.04 | 1st → 1st | 0.0 | 80% | 14.9 / 13.7 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
