Faye Bennet MAISA Womens Singles

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/24/2016
TypeConference Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	54
2	Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	80
3	University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	83
4	George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	95
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Ellie Ungar '19	100
6	Cornell University	Gabby Rizika '20	107
7	Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	111
8	Georgetown University	Macey Mccann '20	118
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	119
10	U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	121
11	George Washington University	Sarah Alexander '19	122
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jessica Lietz '20	145
13	U. S. Naval Academy	Brittney Slook '20	163
14	Cornell University	Gillian Boehringer '18	165
15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Katherine Cox '20	178
16	Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	195
17	Christopher Newport University	Amanda Attardi '17	209
18	University of Virginia	Julia Gowell '18	235

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	1	1	1	3	1	8	4	1	1	6	3	5	14	5	54
Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	3	3	2	1	3	12	12	2	7	10	2	12	9	2	80
University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	13	17	9	2	7	5	8	3	2	4	1	6	2	4	83
George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	4	2	4	6	8	3	1	7	12	12	8	7	11	10	95
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Ellie Ungar '19	2	5	3	4	5	10	10	12	14	5	15	8	1	6	100
Cornell University	Gabby Rizika '20	10	8	7	5	2	1	11	10	3	16	7	1	17	9	107
Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	9	9	11	12	10	4	9	11	9	3	6	4	6	8	111
Georgetown University	Macey Mccann '20	11	10	13	7	6	16	2	4	4	1	12	14	4	14	118
U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	5	11	6	10	4	9	13	17	6	8	4	2	8	16	119
U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	6	6	8	8	12	2	6	15	13	7	11	13	3	11	121
George Washington University	Sarah Alexander '19	8	4	5	9	15	6	14	5	5	2	13	10	13	13	122
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jessica Lietz '20	12	16	12	14	11	7	3	9	8	11	9	16	10	7	145
U. S. Naval Academy	Brittney Slook '20	15	12	14	17	9	18	5	16	10	13	5	11	15	3	163
Cornell University	Gillian Boehringer '18	7	7	16	18	18	11	16	6	15	14	10	3	12	12	165
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Katherine Cox '20	17	15	17	15	13	15	17	8	17	9	14	15	5	1	178
Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	14	13	10	13	14	13	15	13	16	15	17	9	16	17	195
Christopher Newport University	Amanda Attardi '17	16	18	15	11	16	14	18	18	11	17	16	17	7	15	209
University of Virginia	Julia Gowell '18	18	14	18	16	17	17	7	14	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	235

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Haddon Hughes '19	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	2.94	3.78	+0.85	80th → 94th	2.9	4%	3.9 / 7.0
2	Lola Bushnell '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	2.53	3.08	+0.55	65th → 83rd	1.4	14%	5.7 / 8.0
3	Lenox Butcher '20	University of Pennsylvania	14/14	2.10	2.86	+0.76	55th → 78th	2.5	6%	5.9 / 9.1
4	Riley Legault '19	George Washington University Colonials 2	14/14	2.62	2.82	+0.20	69th → 77th	0.2	34%	6.8 / 7.8
5	Ellie Ungar '19	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	1.83	2.63	+0.79	46th → 69th	2.9	10%	7.1 / 9.9
6	Gabby Rizika '20	Cornell University Big Red 1	14/14	1.97	2.25	+0.28	51st → 59th	0.3	24%	7.6 / 9.6
7	Rose Edwards '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	2.26	2.62	+0.36	59th → 69th	0.7	37%	7.9 / 8.7
8	Macey Mccann '20	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	14/14	2.07	2.22	+0.15	53rd → 58th	0.1	38%	8.4 / 9.3
9	Hannah Hughes '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	2.32	2.16	−0.16	60th → 56th	0.1	51%	8.5 / 8.6
10	Jessica Mcjones '20	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	2.47	2.30	−0.17	62nd → 59th	0.2	61%	8.6 / 8.2
11	Sarah Alexander '19	George Washington University Colonials 1	14/14	2.04	2.28	+0.24	53rd → 59th	0.3	38%	8.7 / 9.5
12	Jessica Lietz '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	1.71	1.92	+0.21	42nd → 48th	0.2	50%	10.4 / 10.3
13	Brittney Slook '20	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	14/14	1.50	1.44	−0.06	38th → 35th	0.0	64%	11.6 / 10.9
14	Gillian Boehringer '18	Cornell University Big Red 2	14/14	1.72	1.24	−0.48	43rd → 29th	1.2	75%	11.8 / 10.3
15	Katherine Cox '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	1.70	1.04	−0.65	42nd → 24th	2.5	81%	12.7 / 10.3
16	Olivia Windemuller '19	Old Dominion University	14/14	1.18	1.00	−0.18	27th → 22nd	0.2	86%	13.9 / 11.7
17	Amanda Attardi '17	Christopher Newport University	14/14	1.32	0.32	−0.99	31st → 11th	4.7	93%	14.9 / 11.3
18	Julia Gowell '18	University of Virginia	14/14	1.58	0.40	−1.18	39th → 12th	4.4	>99%	16.8 / 10.6

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 69°F

Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.2 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 21.4 kn

From NE (39°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1018.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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