Laser Performance Women's Singlehanded Nationals

Women's
HostSouth Florida
Date11/04/2017
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Boston College	Sophia Reineke '21	68
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dana Rohde '18	69
3	College of Charleston	Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20	71
4	Brown University	Lindsey Baab '18	75
5	College of Charleston	Marian Frances Williams '21	76
6	Boston University	Anna Weis '20	98
7	Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	99
8	University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	99
9	Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	101
10	George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	102
11	Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	104
12	Tufts University	Talia Toland '21	110
13	University of South Florida	Sarah Streater '18	116
14	Stanford University	Christina Sakellaris '21	120
15	Stanford University	Sophia Sole '21	160
16	Michigan State University	Rachel Rantanen '19	187
17	University of Washington	Laura Smit '18	195
18	University of North Texas	Shelby Thornton '19	204

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Boston College	Sophia Reineke '21	8	7	4	16	3	4	1	6	4	5	3	7	68
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dana Rohde '18	7	3	8	10	1	2	9	1	1	3	6	18	69
College of Charleston	Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20	13	4	10	3	5	5	6	3	6	2	5	9	71
Brown University	Lindsey Baab '18	10	13	3	1	2	15	5	2	5	1	4	14	75
College of Charleston	Marian Frances Williams '21	5	5	12	9	4	6	3	11	3	4	9	5	76
Boston University	Anna Weis '20	3	1	7	7	15	1	12	9	12	14	13	4	98
Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	1	12	2	15	12	12	11	10	14	8	1	1	99
University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	4	10	13	2	7	8	2	13	9	6	17	8	99
Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	11	14	5	6	11	11	14	5	7	7	8	2	101
George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	6	9	1	13	14	3	8	8	13	9	7	11	102
Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	2	8	16	4	6	10	7	12	8	DSQ	2	10	104
Tufts University	Talia Toland '21	9	6	14	8	9	13	10	14	2	10	12	3	110
University of South Florida	Sarah Streater '18	12	2	6	5	10	9	15	16	11	13	11	6	116
Stanford University	Christina Sakellaris '21	14	16	11	11	8	7	4	4	10	12	10	13	120
Stanford University	Sophia Sole '21	16	11	9	12	13	14	17	7	15	16	14	16	160
Michigan State University	Rachel Rantanen '19	15	17	17	14	17	18	16	15	16	11	16	15	187
University of Washington	Laura Smit '18	17	18	18	18	18	16	13	18	17	15	15	12	195
University of North Texas	Shelby Thornton '19	DNF	15	15	17	16	17	18	17	18	17	18	17	204

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Sophia Reineke '21	Boston College	12/12	3.60	3.66	+0.06	92nd → 93rd	0.0	32%	5.7 / 6.7
2	Dana Rohde '18	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	12/12	3.51	3.38	−0.12	90th → 89th	0.1	30%	5.8 / 6.9
3	Kelly-Ann Arrindell '20	College of Charleston Cougars 1	12/12	2.91	3.82	+0.91	79th → 94th	3.2	12%	5.9 / 8.5
4	Lindsey Baab '18	Brown University	12/12	3.29	3.36	+0.08	86th → 89th	0.0	29%	6.2 / 7.5
5	Marian Frances Williams '21	College of Charleston Cougars 2	12/12	2.10	3.74	+1.64	55th → 93rd	9.1	6%	6.3 / 10.6
6	Anna Weis '20	Boston University	12/12	2.53	2.83	+0.29	66th → 77th	0.4	32%	8.2 / 9.5
7	Lenox Butcher '20	University of Pennsylvania	12/12	2.63	2.78	+0.15	69th → 74th	0.1	33%	8.2 / 9.2
7	Lola Bushnell '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	12/12	2.69	2.91	+0.21	71st → 78th	0.2	38%	8.2 / 9.0
9	Haddon Hughes '19	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	12/12	3.01	3.01	+0.00	83rd → 83rd	0.0	56%	8.4 / 8.2
10	Riley Legault '19	George Washington University	12/12	2.84	2.99	+0.16	77th → 82nd	0.1	46%	8.5 / 8.8
11	Carly Broussard '21	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	12/12	2.51	3.08	+0.57	64th → 83rd	1.2	33%	8.7 / 9.6
12	Talia Toland '21	Tufts University	12/12	3.10	2.75	−0.35	84th → 73rd	0.6	70%	9.2 / 8.0
13	Sarah Streater '18	University of South Florida	12/12	2.57	2.54	−0.03	67th → 66th	0.0	56%	9.7 / 9.4
14	Christina Sakellaris '21	Stanford University Cardinal 1	12/12	3.09	2.54	−0.55	83rd → 66th	1.5	83%	10.0 / 8.1
15	Sophia Sole '21	Stanford University Cardinal 2	12/12	2.45	1.52	−0.93	62nd → 38th	4.3	96%	13.3 / 9.8
16	Rachel Rantanen '19	Michigan State University	12/12	0.87	1.04	+0.17	20th → 24th	0.1	82%	15.6 / 13.6
17	Laura Smit '18	University of Washington	12/12	1.18	-0.22	−1.40	28th → 4th	5.9	96%	16.2 / 12.8
18	Shelby Thornton '19	University of North Texas	12/12	0.14	0.33	+0.19	9th → 11th	0.1	90%	17.0 / 14.9

Conditions — 11/04/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 70% · Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 81°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.7 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From NE (36°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1017.4 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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