Radial Open

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/09/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	35
2	Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	50
3	George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	59
4	Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	77
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Ellie Ungar '19	84
6	Cornell University	Gabby Rizika '20	88
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	91
8	Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	115
9	Cornell University	Gillian Boehringer '18	118
10	U. S. Naval Academy	Brittney Slook '20	118
11	Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	146
12	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Gloria Kevliciute '21	159
13	Cornell University	Halle Buescher '21	182
14	Cornell University	Patricia Corujo '21	184
15	Old Dominion University	Clare Mccarthy '21	200
16	Old Dominion University	Jocelyn Rovniak '17	202
17	Christopher Newport University	Mikaela Farrugia '20	250
18	University of Virginia	Marion Hopkinson '20	256

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	1	2	1	8	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	8	5	35
Georgetown University	Carly Broussard '21	5	1	6	7	6	4	5	2	4	2	3	2	2	1	50
George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	3	4	3	5	1	1	8	3	5	4	9	4	6	3	59
Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	11	3	2	11	3	3	10	12	2	3	4	6	3	4	77
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Ellie Ungar '19	4	12	7	2	4	11	4	8	6	5	2	5	12	2	84
Cornell University	Gabby Rizika '20	2	15	4	3	13	5	9	5	3	7	5	3	1	13	88
U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	6	5	5	1	5	6	12	7	10	8	8	7	5	6	91
Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	9	6	11	6	12	7	7	9	8	9	11	8	4	8	115
Cornell University	Gillian Boehringer '18	7	9	8	14	10	8	6	6	9	6	6	11	11	7	118
U. S. Naval Academy	Brittney Slook '20	12	13	9	4	7	12	2	4	12	10	7	9	7	10	118
Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	8	8	15	12	11	14	3	11	11	11	10	12	9	11	146
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Gloria Kevliciute '21	10	7	14	9	9	15	15	15	7	12	12	10	15	9	159
Cornell University	Halle Buescher '21	15	14	10	10	8	13	11	16	15	15	14	16	10	15	182
Cornell University	Patricia Corujo '21	13	11	12	13	14	10	14	13	13	13	16	15	13	14	184
Old Dominion University	Clare Mccarthy '21	14	18	13	15	16	9	13	10	16	16	15	13	16	16	200
Old Dominion University	Jocelyn Rovniak '17	17	10	17	16	15	16	16	14	14	14	13	14	14	12	202
Christopher Newport University	Mikaela Farrugia '20	16	16	18	18	17	17	17	17	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	250
University of Virginia	Marion Hopkinson '20	18	17	16	17	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	17	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	256

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Haddon Hughes '19	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	3.08	4.64	+1.57	83rd → 99th	8.2	1%	2.5 / 6.2
2	Carly Broussard '21	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	14/14	2.51	4.06	+1.56	64th → 95th	9.0	1%	3.6 / 7.5
3	Riley Legault '19	George Washington University	14/14	2.81	3.68	+0.87	76th → 93rd	3.2	7%	4.2 / 6.8
4	Lola Bushnell '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	2.69	2.94	+0.25	71st → 81st	0.3	21%	5.5 / 7.2
5	Ellie Ungar '19	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	14/14	2.06	2.81	+0.75	53rd → 76th	2.6	9%	6.0 / 8.7
6	Gabby Rizika '20	Cornell University Big Red 2	14/14	2.36	2.47	+0.11	61st → 62nd	0.1	26%	6.3 / 8.0
7	Jessica Mcjones '20	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	2.49	2.77	+0.28	63rd → 74th	0.4	30%	6.5 / 7.6
8	Rose Edwards '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	2.67	2.25	−0.43	71st → 59th	1.1	74%	8.2 / 7.1
9	Brittney Slook '20	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	1.73	2.13	+0.41	43rd → 56th	0.8	29%	8.4 / 9.6
9	Gillian Boehringer '18	Cornell University Big Red 4	14/14	1.93	2.21	+0.28	49th → 58th	0.4	39%	8.4 / 9.1
11	Olivia Windemuller '19	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	14/14	1.40	1.64	+0.24	34th → 41st	0.3	47%	10.4 / 10.6
12	Gloria Kevliciute '21	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	14/14	1.83	1.17	−0.66	46th → 27th	2.6	79%	11.4 / 9.3
13	Halle Buescher '21	Cornell University Big Red 1	14/14	1.01	0.64	−0.37	23rd → 17th	0.7	73%	13.0 / 11.5
14	Patricia Corujo '21	Cornell University Big Red 3	14/14	1.01	0.82	−0.19	23rd → 18th	0.2	75%	13.1 / 11.5
15	Clare Mccarthy '21	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	14/14	1.02^u	-0.11	−1.13	23rd → 5th	6.2	88%	14.3 / 11.4
16	Jocelyn Rovniak '17	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	14/14	0.67	0.38	−0.28	17th → 12th	0.5	82%	14.4 / 12.2
17	Mikaela Farrugia '20	Christopher Newport University	14/14	0.49	-2.03	−2.52	14th → 1st	10.4	>99%	17.9 / 12.7
18	Marion Hopkinson '20	University of Virginia	14/14	-0.14	-0.88	−0.75	4th → 1st	0.8	>99%	18.3 / 14.0

Conditions — 09/09/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.6 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 17.1 kn

From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1026.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu