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Janet Lutz Trophy

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Cornell University Cornell University Gilda Dondona '28 2 1 1 13 6 1 1 25
Brown University Brown University Katharine Doble '26 10 5 8 1 1 2 8 35
Harvard University Harvard University Sophia Montgomery '25 1 3 5 3 7 9 9 37
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Okyanus Arıkan '26 7 14 2 2 5 6 6 42
Tulane University Tulane University Ava Anderson '27 8 8 7 11 2 7 3 46
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Esther Ireland '29 16 6 10 6 3 4 5 50
Stanford University Stanford University Avery Baldwin '29 9 9 6 8 8 11 4 55
Brown University Brown University Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 4 4 13 10 4 10 11 56
Harvard University Harvard University Kate Danielson '28 14 2 4 14 10 14 2 60
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Arabella Duer '29 6 15 14 7 11 12 7 72
Webb Institute Webb Institute Amaya Escudero '29 12 13 9 4 13 8 14 73
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Gianna Dewey '27 11 17 3 12 17 3 13 76
Brown University Brown University Sidney Moyer '27 DSQ 7 17 5 14 5 10 77
Tulane University Tulane University Oakley Cunningham '27 13 16 11 9 9 13 12 83
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Agija Elerte '26 3 11 15 16 16 16 16 93
University of Washington University of Washington Sammy Farkas '27 5 12 18 15 15 17 17 99
Brown University Brown University Leila Pfrang '29 15 10 16 18 12 15 15 101
University of Michigan University of Michigan Lila Torresen '29 17 18 12 17 18 18 18 118

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Gilda Dondona '28Cornell University7/74.304.81+0.5098th → 99th0.517%3.6 / 6.0
2Katharine Doble '26Brown University Bears 27/73.734.33+0.6193rd → 98th0.817%5.0 / 7.2
3Sophia Montgomery '25Harvard University Crimson 17/74.164.29+0.1397th → 98th0.038%5.3 / 6.2
4Okyanus Arıkan '26University of Rhode Island7/73.413.87+0.4589th → 94th0.520%6.0 / 8.1
5Ava Anderson '27Tulane University Green Wave 17/73.863.94+0.0894th → 95th0.048%6.6 / 6.9
6Esther Ireland '29Old Dominion University Monarchs 27/72.703.40+0.7072nd → 89th1.012%7.1 / 10.0
7Avery Baldwin '29Stanford University7/73.223.67+0.4585th → 93rd0.541%7.9 / 8.5
8Kaitlyn Hamilton '26Brown University Bears 37/73.003.49+0.4883rd → 90th0.634%8.0 / 9.1
9Kate Danielson '28Harvard University Crimson 27/73.463.03−0.4390th → 83rd0.562%8.6 / 8.0
10Arabella Duer '29Old Dominion University Monarchs 37/72.012.91+0.8952nd → 79th1.930%10.3 / 11.8
11Amaya Escudero '29Webb Institute7/72.33u2.85+0.5260th → 78th0.742%10.4 / 11.0
12Gianna Dewey '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 17/72.142.21+0.0756th → 58th0.039%10.9 / 11.5
13Sidney Moyer '27Brown University Bears 17/72.812.65−0.1676th → 70th0.172%11.0 / 9.7
14Oakley Cunningham '27Tulane University Green Wave 27/72.572.54−0.0367th → 66th0.070%11.9 / 10.3
15Agija Elerte '26Jacksonville University7/72.591.85−0.7468th → 46th1.789%13.3 / 10.3
16Sammy Farkas '27University of Washington7/71.701.47−0.2342nd → 37th0.175%14.1 / 12.6
17Leila Pfrang '29Brown University Bears 47/72.721.58−1.1472nd → 39th3.997%14.4 / 9.9
18Lila Torresen '29University of Michigan7/71.10-0.42−1.5125th → 3rd2.992%16.9 / 13.8

Conditions — 11/08/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1010.3 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From NW (304°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1010.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →