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Island Cup Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 5 7–1
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 7 6–1
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 5–2
4 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 5–2
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 5–3
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 4–3
7 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 2–5
8 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 1–6
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 1–7
10 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 6 1–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,645 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.333 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.35 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 80% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Western Washington University
Vikings 5		15.71
school +0.05, home +0.36		Leif Hauge / Yuri Berebitsky
Alexander Turloff / Erica Stavnem
Caroline Hurley / Cora Gunderson 0.99		82%4–0 (100%)+0.7
2Western Washington University
Vikings 7		25.40
school +0.05, home +0.36		Mary D’Arcy / Faith Burton
Anna Morrow / Addison Dunn 0.68
Adam Turloff / Kerry Wier		80%3–2 (60%)−1.0
3Western Washington University
Vikings 1		15.71
school +0.05, home +0.36		Leif Hauge / Yuri Berebitsky
Alexander Turloff / Erica Stavnem
Caroline Hurley / Cora Gunderson 0.99		82%4–0 (100%)+0.7
4University of Washington
Huskies 3		34.24Benjamin Stone / Jaya Wirth
Liam Boettcher / Brianne Abbott-Rogge
Kieran Lyons / Ayana Owen		52%3–1 (75%)+0.9
5Western Washington University
Vikings 4		62.56
school +0.05, home +0.36		Jack Beeson 0.55
Ellie Blakemore / Morgan Walden 1.18
Sofia Brown Patricio / Hans Scheyer		22%0–5 (0%)−1.1
6Western Washington University
Vikings 2		25.40
school +0.05, home +0.36		Mary D’Arcy / Faith Burton
Anna Morrow / Addison Dunn 0.68
Adam Turloff / Kerry Wier		80%3–2 (60%)−1.0
7University of Washington
Huskies 1		53.05Maxwell Miller / Tillie Jane Leroy 1.91
Kirin Dhaka / Jeffrey Kriegh
Lauren Mcclintock / Allegra Mcalpin 0.26		25%1–2 (33%)+0.2
8University of Washington
Huskies 2		42.78Jaxon Gordon / Jessica Rehmann 0.63
Stephanie Seto / Renee Chien
Sammy Farkas / Julia Oglevie 1.37		27%1–2 (33%)+0.2
9Western Washington University
Vikings 3		62.56
school +0.05, home +0.36		Jack Beeson 0.55
Ellie Blakemore / Morgan Walden 1.18
Sofia Brown Patricio / Hans Scheyer		22%0–5 (0%)−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Western Washington University Vikings 15.718.714–03.3≥+3.001.241%
4University of Washington Huskies 34.245.733–12.1+1.501.027%
7University of Washington Huskies 13.053.681–20.8+0.620.166%
8University of Washington Huskies 22.783.211–20.8+0.430.166%
6Western Washington University Vikings 25.404.093–24.0−1.311.097%
9Western Washington University Vikings 32.56-0.440–51.1≤−3.001.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Alexander TurloffWestern Washington University1.784.784–03.3≥+3.001.241%
Benjamin StoneUniversity of Washington2.303.793–12.1+1.501.027%
Maxwell MillerUniversity of Washington1.912.531–20.8+0.620.166%
Stephanie SetoUniversity of Washington0.691.121–20.8+0.430.166%
Mary D’ArcyWestern Washington University2.060.753–24.0−1.311.097%
Anna MorrowWestern Washington University0.68-0.633–24.0−1.311.097%
Adam TurloffWestern Washington University2.150.843–24.0−1.311.097%
Jack BeesonWestern Washington University0.55-2.460–51.1≤−3.001.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Western Washington University Vikings 2Western Washington University Vikings 394%
16Western Washington University Vikings 1Western Washington University Vikings 256%
17University of Washington Huskies 3Western Washington University Vikings 383%
111Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Washington Huskies 381%
112Western Washington University Vikings 2University of Washington Huskies 294%
116University of Washington Huskies 3University of Washington Huskies 282%
125University of Washington Huskies 1Western Washington University Vikings 361%
129Western Washington University Vikings 1Western Washington University Vikings 396%
130Western Washington University Vikings 2University of Washington Huskies 192%
133University of Washington Huskies 2Western Washington University Vikings 355%
134University of Washington Huskies 3Western Washington University Vikings 224%upset
135Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Washington Huskies 194%

Round 1

TeamRec.5713421236
Western Washington University Vikings 534–29✕✕✕W✕✕WW✕✕
Western Washington University Vikings 734–29✕✕✕W✕✕WW✕✕
Western Washington University Vikings 134–29✕✕✕W✕✕WW✕✕
University of Washington Huskies 311–16LLL✕LL✕✕LL
Western Washington University Vikings 434–29✕✕✕W✕✕WW✕✕
Western Washington University Vikings 234–29✕✕✕W✕✕WW✕✕
University of Washington Huskies 111–16LLL✕LL✕✕LL
University of Washington Huskies 211–16LLL✕LL✕✕LL
Western Washington University Vikings 334–29✕✕✕W✕✕WW✕✕
Western Washington University Vikings 634–29✕✕✕W✕✕WW✕✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-4-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 2-3-6
2 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-3-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 2-4-5
3 Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3 1-5-6
4 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 2-5-6
5 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 3-5-6
6 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-4-6
7 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 3-4-5
8 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-3-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 2-4-6
9 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 7 3-4-5
10 University of Washington Huskies 1 2-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-4-6
11 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 3 3-4-6
12 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-4-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 2-3-6
13 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 4-5-6
14 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 4-5-6
15 Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 1-5-6
16 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 4-5-6
17 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1 3-5-6
18 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 4-5-6
19 Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-5-6
20 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 3-4-6
21 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 3-5-6
22 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 4-5-6
23 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 3-5-6
24 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-4-6
25 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 3-4-5
26 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 4-5-6
27 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 4-5-6
28 University of Washington Huskies 3 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-5-6
29 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 4-5-6
30 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-2-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 3-4-5
31 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 4-5-6
32 Western Washington University Vikings 7 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 3-4-6
33 University of Washington Huskies 2 2-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-4-6
34 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-3-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-4-5
35 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 3-5-6
36 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 4-5-6
37 Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 3-4-6
38 Western Washington University Vikings 7 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2
39 University of Washington Huskies 2 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1
40 University of Washington Huskies 3 def. University of Washington Huskies 1
41 Western Washington University Vikings 4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3
42 Western Washington University Vikings 5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2
43 Western Washington University Vikings 6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1
44 Western Washington University Vikings 7 def. University of Washington Huskies 3
45 University of Washington Huskies 2 def. University of Washington Huskies 1

Conditions — 03/29/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From S (182°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1017.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Western Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Western Washington in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled fleet-race days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →