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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2017-W42). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,589 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  16 boats · 12 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Kyle Dochoda '21 Boston University 12/12 342* 327 -15 93rd → 91st 0.1 43% 4.1 / 4.7 344*
2 Rowan Byrne '21 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 12/12 225* 278 +53 74th → 84th 1.8 28% 6.2 / 7.9 229*
3 Jake Rizika '18 Boston College 12/12 262* 258 -4 82nd → 81st 0.0 46% 6.3 / 6.7 263*
4 Matthew Schryver '20 University of Rhode Island 7/12 229* 226 -3 75th → 74th 0.0 58% 8.1 / 7.7 232*
4 Christian Moffitt '21 University of Rhode Island 5/12 240* 366 +125 77th → 96th 3.3 14% 4.0 / 7.5 246*
5 Samuel Shea '19 Tufts University 12/12 283* 263 -20 85th → 82nd 0.3 58% 6.5 / 6.3 283*
6 Rachel Foster '20 Brown University 12/12 253* 262 +9 79th → 82nd 0.1 45% 6.7 / 7.0 252*
7 Catherine Price '18 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 12/12 268* 262 -6 83rd → 81st 0.0 55% 6.8 / 6.7 269*
7 Nicholas Memoli '20 Bentley University 12/12 183* 243 +60 64th → 77th 2.0 17% 6.8 / 9.1 184*
9 Owen Schafer '21 Harvard University Crimson 2 12/12 228* 211 -18 74th → 70th 0.2 57% 8.1 / 7.7 228*
10 James Peraire-Bueno '19 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 12/12 216* 207 -9 72nd → 70th 0.1 60% 8.8 / 8.1 217*
11 Andrew Puopolo '19 Harvard University Crimson 1 12/12 263* 186 -77 82nd → 65th 4.8 84% 9.0 / 6.8 262*
12 Nate Peck '20 University of Vermont 12/12 191* 184 -7 66th → 64th 0.0 56% 9.2 / 8.7 221*
13 Nathan Drezner '20 McGill University 12/12 110* 188 +78 48th → 65th 3.3 26% 9.8 / 11.1 110*
14 Lucie Ford '20 Salve Regina University 12/12 111* 78 -33 48th → 41st 0.5 68% 12.0 / 10.9 112*
15 Andrew Morrison '21 Massachusetts Maritime Academy 12/12 10n* 23 +13 26th → 29th 0.1 75% 14.7 / 12.7 10*
15 Isabel Rombult '19 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth 12/12 -35* -25 +10 16th → 18th 0.0 63% 14.7 / 13.9 -35*

Division B  16 boats · 12 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Julien Guiot '18 Tufts University 12/12 321* 346 +25 90th → 94th 0.4 32% 3.8 / 4.9 321*
2 Nathan Housberg '19 Brown University 12/12 270* 329 +60 83rd → 91st 2.0 22% 4.2 / 6.1 272*
3 Thomas Walden '20 Boston College 12/12 304* 290 -14 88th → 86th 0.1 42% 4.8 / 5.3 304*
4 Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21 Boston University 7/12 321* 327 +7 90th → 91st 0.0 40% 4.0 / 5.0 323*
4 Michael Sabourin '20 Boston University 5/12 297* 230 -67 87th → 75th 1.5 81% 7.2 / 5.4 294*
5 Joshua Stone '20 University of Vermont 12/12 201* 272 +71 68th → 83rd 2.9 17% 5.5 / 8.0 206*
6 Claire Havig '21 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 12/12 251* 268 +17 79th → 83rd 0.2 44% 6.1 / 6.6 252*
6 Jonas Nelle '22 Harvard University Crimson 1 12/12 264* 239 -25 82nd → 77th 0.4 49% 6.1 / 6.3 267*
8 Rebecca Read '21 University of Rhode Island 7/12 213* 225 +13 71st → 74th 0.1 48% 7.4 / 7.7 215*
8 Kyle Nannig '21 University of Rhode Island 5/12 188* 166 -22 65th → 60th 0.1 54% 8.4 / 8.3 189*
9 Julia Wyatt '21 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 7/12 160* 233 +72 59th → 75th 1.7 20% 6.7 / 9.0 178*
9 Charles Lindsay '21 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 5/12 158n* 135 -23 58th → 54th 0.2 69% 10.4 / 9.0 158*
10 Kelsey Slack '21 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 12/12 189* 133 -56 65th → 53rd 2.2 67% 9.5 / 8.3 189*
11 Brian Kiley '20 Bentley University 12/12 110* 137 +27 48th → 54th 0.4 42% 9.9 / 10.3 112*
12 Caroline King '21 Salve Regina University 12/12 120* 114 -6 50th → 49th 0.0 72% 11.6 / 10.1 121*
13 Maeve Glancy '21 Massachusetts Maritime Academy 12/12 42n* 32 -10 33rd → 30th 0.0 48% 11.8 / 11.6 42*
14 Juan Crestanello '20 Harvard University Crimson 2 12/12 47* 36 -11 34th → 31st 0.1 71% 13.2 / 11.8 47*
15 Noah Ferrarotto '20 McGill University 12/12 91* 17 -74 44th → 27th 3.1 87% 13.3 / 10.8 90*
16 Shannon Mckeown '18 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth 12/12 -48* 48 +96 14th → 34th 2.6 87% 15.2 / 13.6 -47*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →