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Southern Series Five — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2013-W15). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 1,675 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  13 boats · 10 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Marly Isler '16 Yale University Elis 10/10 278* 323 +45 87th → 93rd 0.9 24% 3.3 / 4.5 279*
2 Alexandra Swanson '16 Brown University 10/10 177* 296 +119 69th → 90th 5.7 5% 3.7 / 6.5 180*
3 Max Nickbarg '14 Yale University Bulldogs 10/10 303* 265 -38 91st → 84th 0.8 54% 3.9 / 4.0 304*
4 Bryce Kopp '16 Connecticut College Camels 10/10 312* 304 -8 92nd → 91st 0.0 75% 4.5 / 3.8 315*
5 James Moody '16 Tufts University 10/10 233* 249 +15 79th → 82nd 0.1 44% 5.0 / 5.4 247*
6 Alexander Giordano '15 Connecticut College Connecticut College 6/10 207* 150 -57 74th → 63rd 1.2 84% 7.5 / 5.8 209*
6 Nicholas Arabia '16 Connecticut College Connecticut College 4/10 231* 238 +7 78th → 79th 0.0 47% 5.0 / 5.4 233*
7 Sean Mclaughlin '15 Massachusetts Maritime Academy 10/10 159* 178 +19 65th → 69th 0.1 45% 6.7 / 6.9 163*
8 Thomas Gallagher '16 Dartmouth College 10/10 191* 172 -19 71st → 68th 0.1 70% 7.1 / 6.3 204*
9 James Scanlon '15 University of Rhode Island 10/10 149* 139 -11 63rd → 62nd 0.1 58% 7.4 / 7.1 149*
10 Alex Hering '13 Mitchell College 10/10 65* 91 +25 45th → 51st 0.3 52% 8.9 / 8.8 66*
11 Brian Reilly '16 Sacred Heart University 10/10 -66* -86 -20 13th → 10th 0.1 57% 11.3 / 11.0 -66*
12 Lyndsay Stockwell '14 University of Connecticut 10/10 -45* -71 -26 18th → 12th 0.2 71% 11.4 / 10.6 -44*
13 Joshua Revkin '13 Williams College 10/10 -36* -72 -36 20th → 12th 0.6 84% 11.6 / 10.6 -39*

Division B  13 boats · 10 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Liz Dubovik '15 Connecticut College Camels 10/10 214* 276 +62 76th → 86th 1.6 11% 2.8 / 4.3 216*
2 Peter Bailey '15 Brown University 6/10 160* 248 +87 66th → 81st 2.0 14% 3.5 / 5.4 162*
2 Emmett Weeks '14 Brown University 4/10 236* 329 +93 79th → 94th 1.3 14% 2.2 / 4.1 236*
3 Emily Petno '16 Dartmouth College 10/10 203n* 251 +48 73rd → 82nd 1.0 28% 3.2 / 4.8 203*
4 Eric Anderson '16 Yale University Elis 10/10 186* 217 +31 70th → 76th 0.5 29% 3.9 / 5.0 188*
5 Kate Levinson '15 Tufts University 10/10 201* 168 -33 72nd → 67th 0.6 58% 4.8 / 4.7 200*
6 Priscilla Stoll '15 Massachusetts Maritime Academy 10/10 84* 173 +88 50th → 68th 3.5 11% 5.2 / 7.0 85*
7 Alexandra Romagnoli '15 Connecticut College Connecticut College 10/10 175* 86 -89 69th → 50th 5.0 92% 7.0 / 5.1 176*
8 Zachary Foreman '13 Yale University Bulldogs 10/10 19* 32 +13 33rd → 37th 0.1 61% 8.9 / 8.4 20*
9 Samuel Morley '14 University of Rhode Island 10/10 23* 2 -20 34th → 28th 0.2 73% 9.4 / 8.3 23*
10 Alexandra Rice '16 University of Connecticut 10/10 -62n* -77 -15 14th → 11th 0.1 45% 9.6 / 9.6 -62*
11 Mike Damico '13 Mitchell College 10/10 -16* -32 -16 23rd → 20th 0.1 79% 10.4 / 9.1 -16*
12 Jorge Castro '16 Williams College 10/10 -57* -74 -18 15th → 12th 0.1 76% 10.9 / 9.8 -56*
13 Katherine Horne '18 Sacred Heart University 10/10 -64* -129 -65 13th → 4th 1.5 96% 12.1 / 9.9 -70*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →