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USF Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 16–2
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 13–5
3 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 11–7
4 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 11–7
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 8–10
6 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4–14
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 0–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,924 team race matches sailed before 2024-02-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 53 of 63 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.351 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1College of Charleston
Cougars		18.74
school +0.33		Grace Squires / Chloe Hudgins 2.87
Emma Tallman / Clara Murphy 2.86
Emily Alfortish / Lucy Klempen 2.65		86%16–2 (89%)+0.6
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		28.47Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 3.25
Brooke Barry / Shayne Bersin 2.11 7–2
Lucy Brock / Mercedes Escandon 2.91 7–2
Emma Wang / Elliott Chalcraft 6–3
Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 3.07 6–3		81%13–5 (72%)−1.6
3Old Dominion University
Monarchs		46.94
school +0.21		Elizabeth Gildea / Cadence Goodnight 2.43
Megan Geith / Lindsey Kaufmann 1.99
Gianna Dewey / Allison Volk		51%11–7 (61%)+1.8
4University of South Florida
Bulls		37.18
school −0.10, home +0.43		Emma Shakespeare / Hannah Marsicano 2.45
Heidi Hicks / Madisen Hamai 1.63
Kay Brunsvold / Kalea Woodard 2.68		57%11–7 (61%)+0.8
5Jacksonville University
Fins		56.41
school −0.09		Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.75
Agija Elerte / Payton Ruth 1.77
Kaitlyn Liebel / Fiona Froelich 1.77		41%8–10 (44%)+0.6
6University of Hawaii
Rainbows		65.93
school −0.09		Vivian Bonsager / Anna Kalabukhova 2.09
Martha Schuessler / Peyton Lieser 1–8
Mercy Tangredi / Morgan Carew 2.19 1–8
Martha Schuessler / Morgan Carew 3–6
Mercy Tangredi / Malia Johnson 2.01 3–3
Malia Johnson / Summer Demmon 0–3		34%4–14 (22%)−2.0
7Northwestern University
Wildcats		72.13Marina Hutzler / Maddie Fitzgerald 1.75
Cora Star / Millie Rose Taub
Marguerite Eno / Gracie Corbett		1%0–18 (0%)−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Old Dominion University6.947.5711–79.2+0.630.822%
1College of Charleston8.749.0816–215.4+0.340.150%
4University of South Florida7.187.4411–710.2+0.260.144%
5Jacksonville University6.416.648–107.4+0.230.146%
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology8.477.7913–514.6−0.680.892%
6University of Hawaii5.934.734–146.1−1.211.697%
7Northwestern University2.13-0.870–180.2≤−3.000.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Brooke BarryMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.112.547–26.5+0.430.249%
Agija ElerteJacksonville University1.772.008–107.4+0.230.146%
Marina HutzlerNorthwestern University1.75-1.250–180.2≤−3.000.2>99%
Marguerite EnoNorthwestern University-0.15-3.150–180.2≤−3.000.2>99%
Malia JohnsonUniversity of Hawaii1.36-1.640–30.1≤−3.000.2>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCollege of Charleston40%upset
12Jacksonville UniversityNorthwestern University99%
13University of South FloridaOld Dominion University55%
14College of CharlestonUniversity of Hawaii95%
15Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNorthwestern University100%
16University of South FloridaJacksonville University70%
17Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Hawaii73%
18College of CharlestonNorthwestern University100%
19University of South FloridaMassachusetts Institute of Technology23%upset
110Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Hawaii59%
111College of CharlestonOld Dominion University86%
112University of South FloridaNorthwestern University99%
113Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii96%
114College of CharlestonJacksonville University92%
115Old Dominion UniversityNorthwestern University99%
116University of South FloridaUniversity of Hawaii77%
117Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJacksonville University90%
118College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida83%
119Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyOld Dominion University84%
120University of HawaiiNorthwestern University98%
121Old Dominion UniversityJacksonville University63%
222College of CharlestonMassachusetts Institute of Technology60%
223Jacksonville UniversityNorthwestern University99%
224Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of South Florida44%upset
225College of CharlestonUniversity of Hawaii94%
226Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNorthwestern University100%
227University of South FloridaJacksonville University68%
228University of HawaiiOld Dominion University29%upset
229College of CharlestonNorthwestern University100%
230Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of South Florida76%
231Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Hawaii59%
232College of CharlestonOld Dominion University86%
233University of South FloridaNorthwestern University99%
234Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii96%
235College of CharlestonJacksonville University91%
236Old Dominion UniversityNorthwestern University99%
237University of South FloridaUniversity of Hawaii76%
238Jacksonville UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology10%upset
239College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida82%
240Old Dominion UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology16%upset
241University of HawaiiNorthwestern University98%
242Jacksonville UniversityOld Dominion University38%upset
343Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJacksonville University90%
344University of HawaiiNorthwestern University98%
345College of CharlestonOld Dominion University86%
346University of South FloridaJacksonville University67%
347Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii96%
348College of CharlestonNorthwestern University100%
349Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of South Florida44%upset
350Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Hawaii59%
351Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCollege of Charleston40%upset
352Old Dominion UniversityNorthwestern University99%
353University of South FloridaUniversity of Hawaii75%
354College of CharlestonJacksonville University91%
355Old Dominion UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology16%upset
356University of South FloridaNorthwestern University99%
357College of CharlestonUniversity of Hawaii93%
358Old Dominion UniversityJacksonville University62%
359Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNorthwestern University100%
360College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida82%
361Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Hawaii70%
362Jacksonville UniversityNorthwestern University99%
363Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of South Florida75%

Round 1

TeamRec.CougarsEngineersMonarchsBullsFinsRainbowsWildcats
College of Charleston Cougars5–1✕LWWWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5–1W✕WLWWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–3LL✕LWWW
University of South Florida Bulls5–1LWW✕WWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–4LLLL✕WW
University of Hawaii Rainbows1–5LLLLL✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CougarsEngineersMonarchsBullsFinsRainbowsWildcats
College of Charleston Cougars6–0✕WWWWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–3L✕LWLWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–3LW✕WLLW
University of South Florida Bulls3–3LLL✕WWW
Jacksonville University Fins4–2LWWL✕WW
University of Hawaii Rainbows2–4LLWLL✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CougarsEngineersMonarchsBullsFinsRainbowsWildcats
College of Charleston Cougars5–1✕LWWWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5–1W✕LWWWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs5–1LW✕WWWW
University of South Florida Bulls3–3LLL✕WWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–4LLLL✕WW
University of Hawaii Rainbows1–5LLLLL✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats0–6LLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-5-6
2 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
3 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
4 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
6 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
7 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
8 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
9 University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
10 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
11 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
12 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-5-6
14 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
15 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
16 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-4-6
17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
18 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-5
19 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
20 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
21 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
22 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
23 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
24 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-6
25 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
26 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
27 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
28 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-5-6 DNF
29 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
30 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
31 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
32 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-4-6
33 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
34 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-4-5
35 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
36 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
37 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
38 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
39 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
40 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
41 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-5-6
42 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-4-6
43 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-6
44 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
45 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
46 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
47 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-5
48 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
49 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
50 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
51 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1-5-6
52 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
53 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
54 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
55 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
56 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
57 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
58 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
59 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
60 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
61 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
62 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
63 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6

Conditions — 02/24/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1016.9 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →