Regis Trophy — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W38). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 1,996 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

• ⁿ no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Emma Wang '27	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10/10	331	399	+68	91st → 97th	2.0	7%	3.6 / 6.0	332
2	Maddie Janzen '29	Tufts University Jumbos 1	10/10	386	383	-3	96th → 95th	0.0	42%	4.2 / 4.7	386
3	Carly Kieding '29	Yale University	10/10	388	324	-64	96th → 90th	2.4	70%	5.2 / 4.6	386
4	Madeline Murphy '29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10/10	306	325	+19	88th → 90th	0.2	24%	5.4 / 6.8	306
5	Maisy Sperry '29	Roger Williams University	10/10	283	336	+53	84th → 91st	1.3	18%	5.6 / 7.4	284
6	Julia Scipione '29	Connecticut College	10/10	273	314	+41	83rd → 89th	0.9	28%	6.5 / 7.6	274
7	Kiana Beachy '28	Tufts University Jumbos 2	10/10	268	238	-31	83rd → 78th	0.5	48%	7.6 / 7.8	268
7	Minx Anthony '30	University of Rhode Island	10/10	304	290	-14	87th → 86th	0.1	69%	7.6 / 6.8	303
9	Kate Joslin '28	Boston College	10/10	215	256	+41	74th → 80th	0.9	43%	8.9 / 9.3	216
10	Blake Oberbauer '29	Dartmouth College	10/10	224	166	-59	76th → 65th	1.9	73%	10.2 / 9.0	221
11	Mairéad Reitzel '28	Bowdoin College	10/10	230	221	-9	77th → 75th	0.1	78%	10.3 / 8.9	231
12	Isabella Cho '27	Northeastern University	6/10	217	214	-3	74th → 74th	0.0	70%	10.3 / 9.2	218
12	Jacqueline Ruggieri '27	Northeastern University	4/10	211	210	-1	73rd → 73rd	0.0	66%	10.5 / 9.4	196
13	Sage Andrews '28	Boston University	10/10	197	213	+16	71st → 74th	0.1	70%	10.8 / 9.8	211
14	Emilia Perriera '28	Salve Regina University	10/10	140	124	-16	61st → 57th	0.1	52%	11.5 / 11.3	139
15	Grace Naylor '29	Harvard University	10/10	93	101	+8	51st → 52nd	0.0	51%	12.6 / 12.4	94
16	Georgia Green '28	Bates College	10/10	-72	-112	-40	16th → 9th	0.4	84%	16.1 / 15.3	-72
17	Alling Lubitz '30	Williams College	10/10	-187n	-135	+52	1st → 5th	0.5	56%	16.5 / 16.0	-187

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Sophia Hubbard '28	Tufts University Jumbos 1	10/10	334	378	+44	91st → 95th	0.9	17%	3.2 / 4.7	334
2	Karya Basaraner '28	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10/10	332	318	-14	91st → 89th	0.1	43%	4.2 / 4.7	332
3	Emaline Ouellette '28	University of Rhode Island	6/10	240	270	+30	78th → 83rd	0.3	32%	5.8 / 7.0	240
3	Ariana Schwartz '27	University of Rhode Island	4/10	247	313	+65	79th → 89th	0.9	24%	5.0 / 6.9	248
4	Lilly Saffer '27	Connecticut College	10/10	216	265	+49	74th → 82nd	1.2	13%	5.7 / 7.8	216
5	Gabrielle Ahitow '28	Northeastern University	10/10	178	262	+84	67th → 82nd	3.4	11%	6.4 / 8.9	180
6	Bella Henrich '30	Dartmouth College	10/10	253	256	+2	80th → 80th	0.0	48%	6.5 / 6.8	254
7	Clara Díaz Suárez '28	Yale University	10/10	171	233	+62	66th → 77th	1.9	22%	7.2 / 9.1	184
8	Sophie Niemann '30	Boston College	10/10	252	247	-5	80th → 79th	0.0	63%	7.3 / 6.8	253
9	Ella Demand '28	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10/10	235	180	-55	78th → 68th	1.7	56%	7.4 / 7.2	234
10	Maria Skouloudi '27	Tufts University Jumbos 2	10/10	216	202	-14	74th → 72nd	0.1	59%	8.2 / 7.8	208
11	Juliana Lanz '30	Roger Williams University	10/10	195	157	-38	71st → 64th	0.9	74%	9.7 / 8.5	194
12	Posie Cabaniss '27	Bowdoin College	10/10	166	157	-9	65th → 64th	0.0	69%	10.1 / 9.2	160
13	Bailey Kreszswick '29	Boston University	8/10	132	153	+21	59th → 63rd	0.2	57%	10.5 / 10.1	133
13	Lydia Carscaddon '30	Boston University	2/10	114	-97	-211	55th → 11th	4.8	98%	15.5 / 10.6	113
14	Noelle Brighton '30	Harvard University	10/10	64n	42	-22	44th → 41st	0.2	71%	13.5 / 11.6	64
15	Olivia Blackmer '28	Salve Regina University	10/10	35	43	+8	39th → 41st	0.0	73%	13.8 / 12.5	35
16	Ruby Turner '30	Bates College	10/10	-79	-125	-46	15th → 7th	0.7	88%	16.0 / 14.6	-84
17	Skyla Horne Perez '30	Williams College	10/10	-192n	-253	-61	1st → 1st	0.6	85%	16.8 / 15.7	-192