Jesuit Open — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W40). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 1,984 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

• — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Hugh Carty '27	U. S. Naval Academy	14/14	335	352	+16	92nd → 94th	0.2	19%	3.6 / 4.7	336
2	Lorenzo Puertas '29	University of Michigan	14/14	330	355	+25	91st → 94th	0.4	20%	3.6 / 4.9	330
3	Liam Marcell '30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	14/14	307	394	+87	88th → 96th	4.0	16%	4.0 / 5.4	310
4	Logan Mraz '29	Princeton University	14/14	326	323	-3	91st → 90th	0.0	31%	4.1 / 5.0	326
5	Galen Nourjian '30	Fordham University Rams 1	14/14	238	265	+27	79th → 83rd	0.6	34%	6.3 / 7.3	238
6	Joseph Murphy '28	Penn State University	14/14	201	229	+28	72nd → 77th	0.6	26%	7.2 / 8.4	202
7	Luke Ondrey '29	Fordham University Rams 2	14/14	209	220	+11	74th → 76th	0.1	39%	7.6 / 8.1	208
8	Katherine Mason '27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	14/14	180	206	+26	68th → 74th	0.5	33%	8.1 / 9.0	181
9	Alexander Salzberg '29	Washington College	14/14	148	185	+37	63rd → 69th	1.1	33%	9.1 / 9.9	148
10	Patrick Wahlig '27	Yale University	14/14	157	182	+25	65th → 69th	0.5	44%	9.4 / 9.7	157
11	Charles Crowell '28	Northwestern University	14/14	148	120	-28	63rd → 58th	0.6	63%	10.6 / 9.8	146
12	Tyler Winowiecki '27	Salve Regina University	14/14	113	125	+12	56th → 58th	0.1	56%	11.2 / 10.9	112
13	Jeremy Lunati '27	SUNY Maritime College	14/14	114	96	-17	57th → 53rd	0.2	66%	11.6 / 10.9	113
14	Perla Castro_Ramos '30	Maine Maritime Academy	14/14	92	108	+16	52nd → 55th	0.2	57%	12.0 / 11.5	92
15	Carson Totino '29	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	10/14	77	92	+16	49th → 52nd	0.1	56%	12.4 / 11.9	76
15	Matthew Mccarvill '28	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	4/14	21	-41	-63	38th → 24th	0.6	82%	15.2 / 13.0	21
17	Ezra Shapiro '29	Williams College	7/14	-124	-65	+60	8th → 19th	0.6	61%	16.1 / 15.6	-123
17	Rebecca Power '27	Williams College	7/14	-97	-92	+5	12th → 13th	0.0	94%	16.9 / 15.3	-100

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Sean Trudell '28	U. S. Naval Academy	14/14	364	367	+3	94th → 95th	0.0	26%	2.5 / 3.2	364
2	Nathan Finkelstein '30	Fordham University Rams 1	14/14	279	314	+35	85th → 89th	0.8	10%	3.3 / 4.9	280
3	Will Bryant '29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	14/14	280	285	+5	85th → 85th	0.0	31%	3.9 / 5.0	280
4	Michael Burns '29	Fordham University Rams 2	14/14	204	302	+97	73rd → 88th	5.8	8%	4.1 / 6.7	206
5	Claire Sullivan '29	Penn State University	14/14	179	212	+33	68th → 75th	0.8	19%	6.0 / 7.4	180
6	Ben Visco '28	University of Michigan	10/14	225	247	+22	77th → 80th	0.2	33%	5.3 / 6.4	228
6	Jillian Giordano '27	University of Michigan	4/14	88	139	+51	51st → 62nd	0.6	32%	8.2 / 9.6	92
7	Clara Díaz Suárez '28	Yale University	10/14	198	206	+8	72nd → 74th	0.0	51%	6.9 / 7.0	198
7	Walker Cox '29	Yale University	4/14	40	104	+64	42nd → 54th	0.8	22%	8.8 / 11.0	47
8	Oscar Gilroy '27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	8/14	83	91	+8	50th → 51st	0.0	46%	9.9 / 10.1	83
8	Kevin Ryan '29	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	6/14	117	183	+66	57th → 69th	1.4	35%	8.2 / 9.1	117
9	Elliot Condon '29	Salve Regina University	14/14	112	111	-0	56th → 56th	0.0	57%	9.6 / 9.2	105
10	Advik Eswaran '27	Princeton University	14/14	110	104	-6	55th → 54th	0.0	68%	10.1 / 9.3	109
11	Cathleen Rutter '29	Maine Maritime Academy	14/14	3	58	+56	34th → 45th	2.3	35%	11.4 / 12.1	4
12	Joseph Herrick '28	SUNY Maritime College	14/14	35	59	+23	41st → 45th	0.4	53%	11.5 / 11.3	36
12	Grady Stahl '30	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	12/14	71	88	+17	47th → 51st	0.2	54%	10.7 / 10.5	71
12	Imogene Nuss '28	Washington College	12/14	58	27	-31	45th → 39th	0.6	59%	11.1 / 10.7	56
12	Nora Ciak '27	Washington College	2/14	-38	-25	+13	25th → 28th	0.0	57%	14.0 / 13.0	-38
12	Owen Alway '30	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	2/14	-72	-176	-104	17th → 1st	0.9	90%	16.5 / 13.6	-72
15	Sean Bascoe '27	Northwestern University	14/14	-18	28	+46	29th → 40th	1.6	52%	12.8 / 12.6	-18
17	Max Harthorne '28	Williams College	7/14	-63	-198	-135	19th → 1st	3.6	99%	16.7 / 13.6	-75
17	Skyla Horne Perez '30	Williams College	7/14	-187	—	—	1st → —	1.7	>99%	17.3 / 15.6	-187