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The Hatch Brown Trophy — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2016-W37). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,524 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  19 boats · 17 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Ian Barrows '17 Yale University 17/17 453* 460 +6 99th → 99th 0.0 28% 5.5 / 6.7 465*
2 Stefano Peschiera '18 College of Charleston 17/17 453* 470 +18 99th → 99th 0.3 27% 5.6 / 6.9 452*
3 Ty Ingram '18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 17/17 404* 384 -20 98th → 97th 0.4 34% 7.5 / 8.5 405*
4 Ravi Parent '18 Boston University 17/17 400* 394 -7 98th → 98th 0.0 41% 8.1 / 8.6 401*
5 Patrick Shanahan '19 Brown University 17/17 369* 370 +1 96th → 96th 0.0 23% 8.2 / 9.8 384*
6 Robert Floyd '17 Dartmouth College 17/17 407* 390 -16 98th → 98th 0.3 56% 8.6 / 8.4 407*
7 Harry Koeppel '17 Boston College 17/17 406* 375 -31 98th → 97th 1.0 56% 8.7 / 8.4 406*
8 Michael Madigan '17 U. S. Naval Academy 17/17 342* 387 +45 93rd → 98th 1.9 21% 8.9 / 10.8 362*
8 Rachel Bryer '17 University of Rhode Island 17/17 421* 379 -42 99th → 97th 2.0 74% 8.9 / 7.9 421*
10 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Connecticut College 17/17 376* 378 +3 97th → 97th 0.0 63% 10.2 / 9.6 377*
11 Nick Digiovanni '19 Harvard University 17/17 317* 358 +41 90th → 95th 1.6 35% 10.9 / 11.7 318*
12 Jackson Hamilton '19 Northeastern University 17/17 321* 383 +62 91st → 97th 3.1 38% 11.0 / 11.6 323*
13 Jack Mcguire '17 Bowdoin College 17/17 367* 309 -58 96th → 89th 3.3 77% 11.3 / 9.9 367*
14 Will Holz '17 Fordham University 17/17 355* 317 -37 95th → 90th 1.4 77% 11.8 / 10.3 354*
15 Bailey Carter '19 Hobart and William Smith Colleges 17/17 323* 342 +20 91st → 94th 0.4 60% 12.1 / 11.5 326*
16 Jack Bitney '19 Tufts University 17/17 329* 313 -16 92nd → 90th 0.2 70% 12.4 / 11.3 329*
17 Michael Gemperline '17 Roger Williams University 17/17 321* 335 +14 91st → 93rd 0.2 69% 12.6 / 11.6 323*
18 Jan Kite-Powell '19 University of Vermont 17/17 290* 317 +27 86th → 90th 0.7 63% 13.4 / 12.6 291*
19 Sean Beaulieu '18 Salve Regina University 17/17 250* 290 +40 79th → 86th 1.4 68% 14.9 / 14.0 250*

Division B  19 boats · 17 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Charles Sinks '18 Boston College 17/17 420* 448 +28 99th → 99th 0.7 15% 5.1 / 6.9 420*
2 Alexander Tong '17 Tufts University 17/17 368* 446 +78 96th → 99th 5.1 5% 5.5 / 8.8 370*
3 Nicholas Baird '19 Yale University 17/17 439* 414 -25 99th → 99th 0.6 45% 5.9 / 6.3 439*
4 Charles Lalumiere '17 Dartmouth College 17/17 412* 384 -28 99th → 97th 0.8 46% 6.9 / 7.3 421*
5 Matthew Kaplan '19 Bowdoin College 17/17 385* 396 +11 97th → 98th 0.1 30% 6.9 / 8.1 386*
6 Charles Miller '19 Hobart and William Smith Colleges 17/17 350* 382 +31 94th → 97th 0.9 22% 7.6 / 9.4 352*
7 William Crary '17 University of Vermont 17/17 341* 361 +19 93rd → 95th 0.4 54% 9.8 / 9.6 342*
8 Dakota Northrup '19 University of Rhode Island 17/17 327* 317 -10 92nd → 90th 0.1 44% 9.8 / 10.2 327*
9 Peter Hogan '18 U. S. Naval Academy 17/17 306* 330 +24 89th → 92nd 0.5 38% 10.2 / 10.9 328*
10 Christophe Killian '18 College of Charleston 17/17 348* 302 -45 94th → 88th 2.0 68% 10.4 / 9.5 347*
11 Walter Florio '18 Connecticut College 17/17 279* 312 +33 84th → 90th 1.0 32% 10.9 / 12.0 291*
12 Dylan Farrell '18 Harvard University 17/17 270* 313 +43 83rd → 90th 1.7 29% 11.2 / 12.3 283*
13 Alecsander Tayler '17 Fordham University 17/17 362* 328 -34 95th → 92nd 1.4 91% 11.5 / 9.0 362*
14 Sam Alexander '18 Brown University 17/17 297* 311 +14 88th → 90th 0.2 59% 11.8 / 11.3 309*
15 John Wehner '18 Northeastern University 17/17 280* 301 +22 85th → 88th 0.5 54% 12.2 / 11.9 280*
15 Robby Gearon '19 Boston University 13/17 297* 263 -34 88th → 82nd 0.9 79% 13.1 / 11.3 298*
15 Josh Dochoda '20 Boston University 4/17 381* 328 -52 97th → 92nd 0.6 66% 9.5 / 8.3 380*
17 Cutter O'Connell '18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 17/17 329* 290 -38 92nd → 86th 1.6 85% 12.5 / 10.2 324*
18 A. Tucker Atterbury '16 Roger Williams University 17/17 306* 261 -45 89th → 81st 2.0 87% 13.4 / 11.0 303*
19 Brian Baker '18 Salve Regina University 17/17 184* 217 +33 65th → 73rd 0.8 67% 15.9 / 14.8 185*

Division C  19 boats · 17 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Alexander Stewart '17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 17/17 372* 425 +53 96th → 99th 2.4 6% 4.8 / 7.6 373*
2 Christopher Williford '19 Dartmouth College 17/17 388* 390 +2 98th → 98th 0.0 28% 5.9 / 7.1 389*
3 William Hawk '18 Bowdoin College 17/17 344* 363 +19 94th → 96th 0.4 30% 7.4 / 8.6 345*
4 Casey Klingler '18 Yale University 17/17 391* 353 -38 98th → 95th 1.6 66% 7.7 / 7.1 391*
4 Maxwell Simmons '17 Boston College 17/17 366* 347 -19 96th → 94th 0.4 49% 7.7 / 7.9 364*
6 Parker Loftus '20 U. S. Naval Academy 17/17 348* 357 +9 94th → 95th 0.1 45% 8.1 / 8.5 348*
7 Kendal Richardson '17 Roger Williams University 17/17 331* 350 +19 92nd → 94th 0.3 33% 8.1 / 9.1 339*
7 Nicholas Karnovsky '19 Harvard University 17/17 333* 359 +26 93rd → 95th 0.7 34% 8.1 / 9.1 334*
9 Carter Pemberton '20 Connecticut College 17/17 356* 324 -32 95th → 91st 1.1 67% 9.4 / 8.4 357*
10 Robert Porter '19 College of Charleston 17/17 278* 302 +24 84th → 88th 0.5 35% 10.0 / 11.0 290*
11 Anders Ekholm '17 Fordham University 17/17 247* 300 +53 79th → 88th 2.4 20% 10.5 / 12.1 249*
12 Pierre Thibodeau '20 Hobart and William Smith Colleges 17/17 290* 282 -8 86th → 85th 0.1 51% 10.5 / 10.5 301*
13 Franco Bilik '18 Brown University 17/17 308* 298 -10 89th → 88th 0.1 66% 10.8 / 9.9 308*
14 Cameron Holley '19 Tufts University 17/17 289* 259 -30 86th → 81st 0.9 75% 12.1 / 10.7 290*
15 Alex Moreno '19 Boston University 17/17 279* 280 +1 85th → 85th 0.0 71% 12.1 / 11.0 290*
16 Peter Girard '18 University of Rhode Island 10/17 255* 207 -48 80th → 70th 1.2 70% 13.2 / 11.9 255*
16 Patrick Penwell '17 University of Rhode Island 7/17 240* 299 +60 77th → 88th 1.3 38% 11.3 / 12.3 240*
17 Benjamin Craig '17 University of Vermont 17/17 241* 242 +1 77th → 78th 0.0 56% 12.8 / 12.3 251*
18 Chris Colbeth '20 Northeastern University 15/17 237* 234 -3 77th → 76th 0.0 85% 14.7 / 12.6 236*
18 Kyle Riggs '21 Northeastern University 2/17 214* — — 72nd → — 6.2 >99% 19.0 / 13.1 215*
19 Jennifer Killian '19 Salve Regina University 17/17 175* 175 -0 63rd → 63rd 0.0 89% 16.5 / 14.4 177*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →